16s: Surprised SNGPT says fold

[Shrooma]

The Simulate Future Games option has been beta for a long time but should be working properly according to SNGWizard support.

For an explanation, I'll quote the SNGWizard help file (reference SFG):

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Future Game Simulations


Perhaps the single biggest criticism of the Independent Chip Model (ICM) is that it only takes into account the stack sizes of the players in the current hand. It ignores what may happen in future games.

This limitation is not significant for most situations, but it can be significant when you have a very short stack in the game. ICM does not account for the fact that the approaching blinds will soon eat up most or all of the short stack's chips. Therefore, ICM tends to overvalue short stacks.

The SitNGo Wizard attempts to overcome this limitation by introducing Future Game Simulation (FGS). For every possible outcome of the current game, FGS creates a simulation of what may happen in next few games. This provides a more accurate estimate of the possibility of the short stack busting out.

The actual simulation of each future game is fairly simplified. It only considers the possibility of each player pushing all-in and another player calling the all-in bet. It does not consider pre-flop limps or raises or any post-flop decisions. However, when you have a very short stack in the game often the only action that significantly affects equity is all-in showdowns with the short stack. The value of FGS is estimating the probably of the short stack busting out.

When is FGS enabled?


For most tournament games, FGS adds little value. The chances of a player busting out within the next few hands are too small to make it worth the effort. FGS is enabled when all if the following conditions are met.


The Future Game Simulation option is turned on, either by setting SimulateFutureGames to true in the Options dialog or by checking the Simulate Future Games game view option (the Options link in the upper right hand corner of the game view).

There are 5 or fewer players in the current hand.

At least one of the players has a stack size of 3 big blinds or less.



How does FGS work?


For every possible outcome of the current game, a future game simulation is created. The final stacks from the current outcome are used as the initial stacks in the future game. The player's positions are rotated so that the blinds are correct.

The simulation starts with the first player to act. Based on opponent modeling, the Wizard computes the probability that the first player will push all-in. Then the Wizard then computes the probability that each of the remaining players will call the first player's push. Each call creates a showdown and the equity from each showdown is computed. When nobody calls the first player's push, he picks up the blinds.

The simulation repeats the procedure for each player in the hand; each player pushes and each remaining player calls or folds. The equity from all of the outcomes is summed up to produce the total equity of the future game.

If the total probability an outcome of a future game is greater than about 1%, another future game simulation is created for that outcome. It is possible to have several levels of nested future games.




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