Are we calling down too much?

TJO · #1 03-07-2007, 04:07 PM

Yesterday I made this poll which was probably stupid. Since it generated very little interest.

I went to great lenghts to ask a simple question. What if the reason that we're not crushing these microlimit games is not that fold too much but instead that we call down too much?

I really like Ed Miller's classic post but it was written in the golden era of online poker and the game has become tougher. That combined with the opponent denigrating attitude coming from SSHE could lead to trouble.

During last month I've chosen the calldown line with KK 17 times and I have lost the pot 13 times and only won 4 times. I've won 19BB and lost 26BB. The 4 times that I won I chose the calldown line for no good reason (being the weak-tight nit that I am). I know this is really small sample size and I'm being result oriented here. But I challenge you to look your HHs to find a standard calldown hand (AA,KK,QQ) that you actually won, post it here and prove me wrong.

I think that 95% of the time when we choose to call down with a hand like KK we are drawing to two outs or drawing dead. So we're drawing to something like 1.25 outs and we never have the odds to call. An exception here might be against a big bluffer but I haven't found one during my poker career. I have no experience in 6-max games or higher level games like $1/$2 or $2/$4. Maybe you can find more bluffers there.

Also I'd like to know if there's some metagame value in calling down and that's the reason why we always do it. Will opponents start to play differently against us if we start to fold these hands?

I hope this will generate some discussion. I know I should stop trying to come up with something "significant" because I'm not a good poker player and I'm even worse as a writer. So it's like a son trying to teach his father how to f**k.

Finally, does this look awful to you?:

Hand 2

Villain unknown. Hero has played only 15 hands with him. Probably a somewhat tight player.

Ultimate Bet
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25./$0.5
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, Hero raises, MP3 3-bets, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds, Hero caps, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (13.4SB, 3 players)
Hero bets, MP3 raises, Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8.7BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero folds.

Hand 3

Villain is 21/15/2 60 hands

Ultimate Bet
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.05./$0.1
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, 4 folds, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+1 caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (13.4SB, 3 players)
UTG+1 bets, CO calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9.7BB, 3 players)
UTG+1 bets, CO folds, Hero folds.

Hand 4

Villain is totally unknown.

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.15/$0.3
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7SB, 3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5BB, 3 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, MP2 raises, Hero folds.

MrWookie · #2 03-07-2007, 04:16 PM

TJO,

Ed Miller has gone on the record to say that his advice has been taken too far. He wrote it at a time when the people of the forums were itching to find excuses to fold top pair, and where making big folds with big hands was a badge of honor on the forums. His post completely turned the tide. Now, I'd say that as a forum, yes, we call down too much. But only a little bit. Usually.

That said,

Hand 4 is a horrible, horrible fold. Hand 3 is marginal, but I lean call down. Hand 2 looks like a best fold of the bunch.

NIX · #3 03-07-2007, 04:31 PM

If I remember later, I'll dig up a hand or two where I thought my hand was too good to fold, but I didn't think I was ahead often enough to raise, so I called down and won.

Against some tighter Villains, I have no problem folding KK or another big pair if I know they'll only play back with a hand that beats an overpair. But in general though, folding overpairs at the first sign of resistance isn't going to be profitable forever. You'll eventually find more Villains later who will semi-bluff more or who have weaker hands than yours and think they are value betting and you may end up folding more winners. Also, in your +19BB/-26BB numbers, are the winning numbers from the pots you've won and the losing numbers are the bets you've lost after you decided to call down?

For your posted hands, in Hand 2, I think the fold is fine. Hand 3, I may call down since I'd expect a Q to check/raise. Hand 4, I call down.

Absolution · #4 03-07-2007, 04:36 PM

Donking is the new check-raise, and I'm not joking.

TJO · #5 03-07-2007, 04:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Also, in your +19BB/-26BB numbers, are the winning numbers from the pots you've won and the losing numbers are the bets you've lost after you decided to call down?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes losing numbers are from the bets I've lost after I decided to call down. Usually it costs 2BB to call down. So 13 times 2BB.

fretelöo · #6 03-07-2007, 05:12 PM

Are we? Yes, I think so. All those cases where QQ/KK flop an Axx board are very often correct folds. Hand 4 is bad, though.

Marquis · #7 03-07-2007, 05:37 PM

What's with the we in this post? My girlfriend doesn't think I spend enough time with her. Does that mean we play too much poker?

Poseidonne · #8 03-07-2007, 05:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Donking is the new check-raise, and I'm not joking.

[/ QUOTE ]Isn't this largely because your average 2+2er is likely to raise a donk bet in a spot such as this if he/she lead pf and on the flop. This lets the donk-er get in an extra bet in by donk/3betting the turn. The effect is the same as the c/r since the hero will often go c/c mode after the turn 3bet, the only real difference being that the play sacrifices the FE inherent to a c/r, but picks up an extra BB on the turn.

Or do they just do it because they're donks [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img].

shuinthehouse · #9 03-07-2007, 05:59 PM

Hand 4 I agree we are getting odds to call, 8-1 and we are 4.75-1 to improve to a better 2 pair or set (8 outs, 6 non-villain 2-pair cards and 2 K's), discounted b/c villain could have a set or str8 here. Do we call the river UI? I think we should fold, it's a very rare micros villain who is turn-raising a PFR and flop-betting hero with < 2 pair. Maybe 99, but I don't think many .15-.30's make that play. We'd be getting 10-1 but I don't think we are good that often. But I probably call down in the heat of the moment anyway.

Hoskinator · #10 03-07-2007, 07:50 PM

Everything in poker is situational, there isn't one rule for any hand than can be used in every situation. Big pairs with lots of callers loose their chances of winning.

I also think he still has a decent point, I looked in poker tracker and I have had KK 8 times and won 75 percent with them. I have had KQ offsuit 27 times and won only 25 percent with it. Half the reason for that is I played them like a donk and the other is a bit of bad luck but over time the stats will even out.

I see you point about having a big pocket pair, they can be over taken by hands that improve after the flop, this is why we raise it up as much as possible to chase everyone out. If are raises don't accomplish this then we have to be careful.

I say keep the faith with the cowboys (KK) and they will reward you in the end. I also say if its a board with flushes and straights then its okay to fold em.

I wonder what the statistical difference is on winning with a pair of aces over kings.