$16 Stars: Q9 hits top pair now what?

[BeattysLuck]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 (t1310)
MP1 (t2545)
MP2 (t1410)
CO (t1435)
Button (t2520)
SB (t1085)
Hero (t1435)
UTG (t1760)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, Q.
1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t50, MP1 calls t50, 3 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t200) 6, 3, 9 (4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets t400</font>, SB folds, Hero ???

no reads, i usually dont like getting involved in hands unless I hit TPTK, especially in lower blinds like this, hence the check on the flop. Villian bets twice the pot but Im not sure what to think of it. What line should I take here?

[vers]

I think his overbet is indicative of a flush draw (he bets smaller with good hands for value I would think) so I think shoving here is good.

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
I think his overbet is indicative of a flush draw (he bets smaller with good hands for value I would think) so I think shoving here is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has the button and it's been checked to him. A flush draw can bet smaller and expect to win it a lot.

So I'm not sure. I think you are going to be beat here a fair bit. The plus for me is that he can't have FD+pair.

[vers]

When it's checked to him on the btn and no one has shown any aggression, don't you think he bets small with his good hands as to not scare off ppl and extract value? It doesn't seem like anyone will call 400 here, so why is he betting so strongly if he has a good hand and wants value?

[sippin_criss]

meh i just fold, mediocre hand and u only have 50 invested.

[vers]

I would fold as well if the bet was like 250 or less, this just looks so weak and I think it's a draw or pocket we're ahead of like 88/77. In game, I might fold, but I definitely think about calling. It's definitely a high variance shove and very read dependent.

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
When it's checked to him on the btn and no one has shown any aggression, don't you think he bets small with his good hands as to not scare off ppl and extract value?

[/ QUOTE ]

You might do that. I might do that. But someone who overbets the pot here could be doing it with just about any of the possibilities.

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't seem like anyone will call 400 here, so why is he betting so strongly if he has a good hand and wants value?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's an idiot? Dude, maybe you play a lot against thinking players, but although the players I play are not thoroughly retarted, many are resolutely level one. They see that they have top pair or a set, or whatever, and bet it hard.

Or do that ghey minbet thing. That drives me mad.

The problem with pushing, as I see it, is that:

A (times you push and he has FD or pair, calls and doesn't beat you anyway) plus B (times you push and he folds) must be bigger than C (times you push and he has you dominated/crushed and you don't suck out) by a fair way to make the push good.

It seems to me you need more As than you're going to get, because yes, sometimes he has a FD and folds, but often he has A9/K9 or bigger, and you lose your stack.

But I'm not definitive about it. It just seems that way to me.

[vers]

I do give players too much credit sometimes (think of them as semi thinking players and not total donks). I guess there's some villains w/ prior reads I would shove against, but folding is probably prudent, even though we are ahead a fair amount of the time I guess (against unknowns/regs I would muck but might shove w/ loose reads on opponent).

Sometimes I put too much analysis into betting patterns I guess.

I think you're right about folding being best, but I wouldn't fold in this spot all the time.

[IFoldPktOnes]

Most flush draws are actually ahead on this flop. I fold.

[Peakation]

I think you need two hearts over 9 to make it a coinflip vs pair of 9. Any other holding of hearts is behind.