AQs in a Capped Pot

Six_of_One · #1 10-26-2007, 02:09 PM

I played this hand last night at a 25/50 game in LA.

UTG raises. He's new to the table so I don't have much of a read on him, but it's clear that he plays too many hands.

I'm next with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and I make it 3 bets. Folds around to the button (has some definite LAG tendencies, though not completely crazy or anything), who calls. UTG caps, and we both call.

Flop: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG checks. I bet (?), button raises, UTG calls, I call.

Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG now bets, I raise...

I'm not sure about this one. What do you people think?

Chipspin · #2 10-26-2007, 02:32 PM

I don't like it at all. UTG caps PF, then check/called two cold on the flop, so the only A he's representing is AK, unless he's really loose. And your raise knocks out JJ or TT or 99 or whatever the button's holding.

I would just call down here.

Out of curiosity, are you planning to fold to a 3-bet?

n.s. · #3 10-26-2007, 02:48 PM

PF is good if the table is playing on the aggressive side in general, although honestly I don't think it's that bad to just fold here until you have some kind of read of UTG. If his range is the typical TAG UTG raising range, you could be in big trouble.

According to PJ's theorem, button should have exactly JJ when he cold-calls 3 bets. That's probably too narrow of a range, but I do think that he'll often have a medium-high PP here, and he's not folding it on that flop (really, no one is folding anything on that flop), so I don't think I like the flop bet.

The turn raise is bad - UTG has played his hand exactly like AK. Also, if you are good then neither player can have more than 2 outs to beat you, since the board is already paired - so you really don't mind an overcall and on the off chance that you are good, you want to keep UTG betting into you and not give him a chance to fold.

nineinchal · #4 10-26-2007, 02:53 PM

I like it a lot. If you get raised here you can just call down with aces up deuces, Q kicker.

You can't afford not to raise here, against two players when you are holding aces up. You would not be getting value if they are both holding pocket pairs.

If you don't get re-raised on the turn you can bet the river for value.

private joker · #5 10-26-2007, 02:58 PM

Agree with Chipspin, Scott. Not a great raise -- you're way ahead or way behind, and there's no point in getting button to fold unless you hit the bizarre parlay of button folding another AQ (or AK lol) and getting it HU with UTG's retarded bluff. Not gonna happen. Call down and hope you're good.

Chipspin · #6 10-26-2007, 02:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like it a lot. If you get raised here you can just call down with aces up deuces, Q kicker.

You can't afford not to raise here, against two players when you are holding aces up. You would not be getting value if they are both holding pocket pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Strongly disagree with this.

Three things:
1. If you are reraised, you are dead (or you have two outs, and possibly to a chop).
2. You do not want to fold out pocket pairs here. Let them make statistically incorrect calls with two outs that they would not make for two bets.
3. The action does not convince me you are ahead on the turn.

StrictlyStrategy · #7 10-26-2007, 02:59 PM

I just call down and I certainly don't bet the flop.

Chipspin · #8 10-26-2007, 03:08 PM

One more thing:

As played, if called, take a free SD.

Six_of_One · #9 10-26-2007, 03:39 PM

My thinking on the turn was something like "ACE!!1!!!1OMGRAIZZ!!" Around the time my stack of chips made it into the pot, I thought, "Oops, that was dumb." So I agree with what most of you are saying.

As it turns out, I got lucky, and UTG had the same hand as me (button got pissed at the dealer and folded the turn).

Note: I will say that had this same hand come up later in the session, raising the turn might have made more sense, because by that time I had realized that UTG was seriously bad and could easily have an Ace that I beat. But given my read at the time, I think calling was best.

andyfox · #10 10-26-2007, 05:06 PM

While you don't know UTG, his cap and flop check would tell me he isn't much of a player. He likely has unimproved high cards; A-K is the favorite since he capped pre-flop, although one would think he'd bet this raggedy flop with that. Button likely has a pocket pair in the 9s or Ts range, that would be the most likely hand to cold-call three preflop.

So I'm not crazy about the flop bet. I'm also not crazy about the turn raise. You might be behind the bettor, and you're likely ahead of the guy behind you and he's drawing to just two outs.