Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Limit Texas Hold'em > Small Stakes Shorthanded

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11  
Old 11-27-2007, 06:33 AM
inferno inferno is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,402
Default Re: Three barrels?

I dont raise the flop, I dont bet the turn, I dont bet the river
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 11-27-2007, 07:08 AM
xerxesthegod xerxesthegod is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 255
Default Re: Three barrels?

I think the flop raise is bad. What do you think he three bets preflop that he might fold to the flop raise???
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 11-27-2007, 07:18 AM
Wolfram Wolfram is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Reykjavik
Posts: 3,306
Default Re: Three barrels?

[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop raise is bad. What do you think he three bets preflop that he might fold to the flop raise???

[/ QUOTE ]
Indeed. There are two reasons to raise the flop, FE or taking a free card.

This flop hits a 3-betting range pretty hard. A lot of the time you'll get called down, and a lot of the time you'll get reraised forcing you to pay the max for your draw. You have very little FE and the risk of getting 3-bet is high which makes a free card play too risky. Free card plays are seldom worth it HU anyways.

On top of that you don't know how many of your outs are good. K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] could be bad for you and half your outs could be drawing to a split.

Just call and hope you hit.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 11-27-2007, 09:23 AM
maxter maxter is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 15
Default Re: Three barrels?

I don't think the flop raise is that bad if we believe he's folding a pocket pair smaller than the board.

Assuming 44+,A6s+,ATo+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs (probably wider) he'll have 44-99 about 20% of the time.

Our hot-and-cold equity in this flop is 30%, lets assume we win 25% of the time and 0BB implied odds (due to flop 3-bets with better hands obviously, he will rarely try to c/r the turn wich will be a disaster), and he's folding 44-99 to a flop raise + turn bet.

The pot will be 4BB (discounting 0,5BB rake) and we invest 2BB in our line. I assume he always peel the flop.

EV = 0,20*4BB + 0,80*(0.25*4BB + 0.75*(-2BB)) = 0.80 - 0.40 = 0.40BB

Enough overlay for our semibluff IMO, but if conditions change it could be a close play (if I made the math correctly :P)

I wouldn't 3-barrel the river. If we assume he has TT+,A6s+,A9o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs (taking out 44-99)we have 0% equity and I don't think he's folding weak pairs enough. I'll give up.

P.S. Yeah, first post. Long time lurker [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 11-27-2007, 09:30 AM
Oink Oink is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: SLAAAYYYERRRR ! ! ! !
Posts: 4,226
Default Re: Three barrels?

[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop raise is bad. What do you think he three bets preflop that he might fold to the flop raise???

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop raise cant be bad. Come on

22, 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99 will all fold a good portion of the time

Thats 45 combos!!

With the OESD and possible pair outs vs KJ and KT Hero doesnt need to get a fold very often for it to be +EV. Pot is 8 SB when villain bets and hero would be calling anyway so make that 10 SB that he is paying 1 more bet to win. Of course villain will make it 3 or force hero to bet again on the turn but still.

I'd guess that if villain folds as little as 10% here then the semibluff raise is good. With all those combos of low pp's that should be more than feasible


I'd say that not raising this flop is bad.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 11-27-2007, 10:01 AM
Wolfram Wolfram is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Reykjavik
Posts: 3,306
Default Re: Three barrels?

oink,
how many combos 3-bet?
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 11-27-2007, 10:11 AM
Oink Oink is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: SLAAAYYYERRRR ! ! ! !
Posts: 4,226
Default Re: Three barrels?

[ QUOTE ]
oink,
how many combos 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Quite a few.

But now when AK 3-bet we still have about 27% eq and are only loosing half a SB

AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8s, A7s, A6s, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s, KQo, KQs, AA, JJ, TT.

Havent counted but I'd say thats on the wrong side of 100 combos.


Writing this I realize that the low pp's that fold will prolly give up on the turn or river anyway

Hmm. I take back what I said

No reason to pop the flop if he c/f turn with 77
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 11-27-2007, 10:27 AM
maxter maxter is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 15
Default Re: Three barrels?

I think he's probably bet/folding 44-99 in the turn after 3-betting preflop. People just 2-barrel a lot when they are PF 3-bettors and there are some gutshots Kx Qx that we may have.

So we're semibluffing/bluffing any turn/river blank if villian checks, to fold that PPs? I'm worried about Villian thinking that c/c'ing with them in the river might be good to catch some bluffs in a nice pot.

I think I'm still raising the flop, but what Oink said makes me think it's closer than I thought.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:10 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.