NL50:88.c/r semibluff on flop,turn gets checked.I push river scare car

[AlexB182]

Villain is 15/5/0.8 over 120 hands. Nothing special, but seems rather competent.
I run at 17/13 at this table, playing pretty aggressive.
PF is pretty much a mix up play. On the flop, I think villain could have missed this flop easily. So I make a rather small c/r (too small maybe but not sure). When he 3bets I'm a little pissed, but still figure every 8 or 7 would get me the rest of his stack.
Now when he checks turn behind, I plan on making a move on the river on pretty much every card that looks at least kind of scary, including every spade, a T, maybe even a 9 or a J. Of course I'm VBing every 8 or 7.
Thoughts?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 ($22.45)
Hero ($59.40)
CO ($52.50)
Button ($33.75)
SB ($9.65)
BB ($63.50)
UTG ($50.75)
UTG+1 ($10.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $2.25</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $1.75.

Flop: ($5.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $17</font>, Hero calls $8.

Turn: ($37.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: ($37.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $42.15 (All-In)</font>

[The Eureka Kid]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 15/5/0.8 over 120 hands. Nothing special, but seems rather competent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks good if your read is correct. If he finds a fold a little over half the time you are set. I think you get him to lay down AA/KK and JJ here at least.

[AllTheCheese]

Fold to the flop three-bet. You have a 13%er and you're getting ($5+$7+$17):$10 = 3 to 1 on your money. Villain only has a PSB behind so implied odds are minimal, not that they would ever be anything but minimal when you're counting on four-straight to complete your hand.

[ninjadanger]

I would have dumped this to the 3bet on the flop.

as played villain checking the turn behind could be a few things; I've taken his exact line with AA/KK anticipating calling a bet on the river or vbetting if checked to, flopped/turned set (very unlikely they are checking here though), or a big draw taking a free card since the money didn't go in on the flop.

that being said I hate the river push. you are basically relying on a relative unknown to be able to fold, in the best case scenario, an overpair ( I guess best case scenario is air but it seems pretty unlikely). if villain is indeed competent enough to fold a big pair here, reason leads me to believe he shows up with a monster here on the river a lot.

[ranka]

I hate the preflop - I hate the open-limping!
I hate the river. These calling stations groaning in the chat:"Yeah, you got flush. Damn, so sick! You hit your set! you are sick, man!". Using their entire timebank and still calling you down.

[AlexB182]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate the preflop - I hate the open-limping!
I hate the river. These calling stations groaning in the chat:"Yeah, you got flush. Damn, so sick! You hit your set! you are sick, man!". Using their entire timebank and still calling you down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think he is a calling station? I did not say that in my OP and stats are not telling that neither...

[ranka]

Yeah, calling station is a bad word and I explained it badly but lets replace "calling station" with "donk".

I mean if they call, they call you down anyway - dosen't matter how big the bet is. I think betting 26-27$ doing the same job as pushing and it is more threatening and dangerous - it looks like a value bet. But I am sure they are not folding overpair here anyway. And this is the second reason why I hate it - these limits (I play the same limit currently) are not place for big laydowns or big push bluffs.

[Specialwon]

0.8 AF suggests he is usually very passive postflop, so calling station-ish. I don't really like any of this, raise pf and dump it after your c/r goes wrong. Your line doesn't look like a draw, it looks like a medium to large pair who decided to bluff at the river. It would have worked a lot better if you had just c/called the flop.

[AlexB182]

Sorry ranka, don't get me wrong but I think this is not right. First, there is no need to think he is a donk. In fact,I stated in my OP that he is rather competent IMO.
Additionally, I think that going with reads and with what you think to know of your opponent is by far a better approach then simply saying: at this or that level, people are calling you down anyway and always in that kind of situation. IMO, there has recently been quite a lot of oversimplification around here.
Again, ranka, this is nothing personal against you, just a recent trend in general I kind of noticed.

[AlexB182]

Allright, so public opinion is I screwed that one up, guess I'll have to accept that. Thanks for your comments guys...