Simpler Question About Future People

[mjkidd]

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And if you believed in reincarnation, then not giving anything is a no brainer. If you die of cancer in 1000 years, it's no biggie, since you'll just get reincartated.

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But loved ones may die of cancer while you are still alive. They will be reincarnated, but you will not know them again in this lifetime. The pain of having lost them will remain with you until you die.

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But with your ten million dollars, you can just buy new loved ones.

[Deorum]

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And if you believed in reincarnation, then not giving anything is a no brainer. If you die of cancer in 1000 years, it's no biggie, since you'll just get reincartated.

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But loved ones may die of cancer while you are still alive. They will be reincarnated, but you will not know them again in this lifetime. The pain of having lost them will remain with you until you die.

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But with your ten million dollars, you can just buy new loved ones.

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I know you are joking, but you may not have ten million dollars in your new life 1000 years from now [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[seemorenuts]

If a penny is the lowest payable sum, x=.01.

If a dollar is the lowest effective answer, x=1.

Incorrect is zero. Answers higher than mine are a waste of money (read the question).

Time to solve for 1, 17-20 seconds.
Time to solve for .01, another 10 seconds.

[sahaguje]

I guess it depends on a lot of factors, like :

- the probability you die before being able to make a very good use of that 10 million dollars.

- the probability you attribute to the existence of a god : if you think there is the slightest chance that giving all your money can guarantee you an eternity of happiness in heaven, well, go for it.

- your capacity to win something now that can be more valuable than the money itself (fame, self-esteem etc.)

Depending on the factors you are taking account of, sometimes it will be "all or nothing", ie x=0 or x=10 million (for example the caring god thing), sometimes you will have a more continuious function (you say that in english?), that relates for example the money you give and the probability of fame.

[StregaChess]

Maybe I'm having a really bad ADD day however.
The way the question is worded it sounds to me like any amount I choose with get the job done, so I'm paying .01 to have no cancer in 1000 years. Why would you pay more if .01 will get it done?

[Stumpy]

I agree it might be worded that way, but obviously the only interesting question is the maximum amount you'd be willing to pay?

If someone could guarantee it for 9M, would you take it?
No? then how about 8M?

But you can't answer knowing a lower offer would come along if you say no.

[sebbb]

Ok so this is a rough draft of how I would think about this, so feel free to point out any mistake.

National Cancer Institute’s budget for 2004 was 4.824 billion dollar. Over 1000 years that's roughly 5000 billion of today's money. So let's suppose that we end up spending 100 times that worldwide over the next 1000 years. That's 500,000 billion dollars, or 5*10^14. That amount + 1000 years of research give me a 90% chance of curing cancer.

Now let's say that the money we give today is invested at a rate of 2% after inflation/taxes. (1.02)^1000=400 million, or 4*10^8. So if I invest 2 million in this thing, I will exceed the total cancer research budget over 1000 years. I think it is more than enough to give a final boost to find a cure (given that we'll probably be close to a cure after a 1000 years of research). Also, scientists will probably have a hard time using a greater amount anyway.

Now I believe that 4 million dollars is enough for me to retire comfortably. So there's $4 million left. I'd rather invest those today in something like finding alternative energies or something like that. Investing those $4 million left today into somehting that will have a positive influence on our economy will have more impact on finding a cure for cancer than adding them to the $2 million I already put.

[nineinchal]

Hey Dave,

Yes, we will probably find a cure foor cancer prior to investing 2 mill at 2%. However, when the Al Quada sneaks atomic weapons and other Weapons of Mass Destruction into Las Vegas, New York, Washington, LA and Miami, what amount of investment in cancer research will save our collective asses then? Moreover, how will we find a poker game (B&M or internet) then?

I would rather expend a few hundred mill now (rather than invest) on a fence across the border with Mexico and Canada for a few hundred mil.

Nineinchal

CPA, CFE,Phd Economics, MS Economics, BA Accounting and fellow Jewboy

[adverseselection]

Since x could be any number between 0 and 10 million dollars and since x guarantees that there will be no cancer in 1000 years according to the question, my x would be one penny. Then I might very well put the rest into current cancer research. <font color="green"> </font>

[lastchance]

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Since x could be any number between 0 and 10 million dollars and since x guarantees that there will be no cancer in 1000 years according to the question, my x would be one penny. Then I might very well put the rest into current cancer research. <font color="green"> </font>

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QFT.

I think the answer is much, much lower than expected, simply because the likelihood that Cancer (mebbe even the human race) will be around in a 1000 years is not that likely.