College Football Rank 'em --- Week 8 - Page 8

Tha Stunna · #71 10-22-2007, 12:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Should UK really have dropped that much?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure, but they lost by a fair amount both times and South Carolina in particular isn't looking that great. Their trophy win over LSU was excruciatingly close.

MyTurn2Raise · #72 10-22-2007, 01:00 AM

ok, I'm working on a project I mentioned earlier

I'm going to put together a comparison of how the typical #5, #10, #25 team would do facing the different schedules teams have played thus far

I'm going to simply use sagarin predictor and base home fields to come up with a spread
I'm then going to convert that spread to a win pct by using a smoothed out curve of the straight-up winning pct for all games involving a closing spread at that value and immediately surrounding it for every game played from '93 to 2006 in NCAAF

I see a few problems
1) Home field varies from team to team and situation to situation. To be perfect, I'd use something like Phil Steele's HFA point rankings and then add for expected close game and nationally televised game while subtracting for games of a wide margin where homefield has been shown to have less effect (after all, the fans aren't a big deal when a team is up 21 with 6 minutes left).
2) I'm using the current sagarin predictor rating for the teams on the schedule.
--predictor is the best at predicting although some would like the combined score including the elo_chess.
--I'm not using the opponents' ranking at the time of the game. Oftentimes, early assumptions and small sample sizes make these pretty bad in ncaaf. I feel the current ranking is a much better judge of the team as it really is.

I'll put it up on my blog, TheBCSsolution, once I get it all worked out.

Arnold_O · #73 10-22-2007, 01:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
TheBCSsolution, once I get it all worked out.

[/ QUOTE ]

if a playoff ever came about i'd like to see the top 8 get in even if it means 3 from one conference, no automatic qualifiers

yeotaJMU · #74 10-22-2007, 02:01 AM

usf shouldnt be so low imo... if you watched the game it was screwy trick plays, a bogus called back TD, a missed FG, and a bogus offensive pi (wouldve led to fg attempt to tie) that had them lose the game. and wtf they beat wvu

BobJoeJim · #75 10-22-2007, 03:10 AM

Memo to ESPN: It is extremely unlikely that Boston College will be upset this week... DUCY?

(Kudos to Kirk Herbstreit for avoiding the "u" word in predicting a VT win though)

damaniac · #76 10-22-2007, 03:21 AM

USC is a 2.5 dog to Oregon. Anyone know that last time USC was an underdog?

BobJoeJim · #77 10-22-2007, 03:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
USC is a 2.5 dog to Oregon. Anyone know that last time USC was an underdog?

[/ QUOTE ]
Rose Bowl last year, Michigan -1.5 according to Covers.com

Last time USC was an underdog in a regular season game (and the second most recent time overall): 08/23/2003 @Auburn -4.

Of course USC won both of those games. The last time USC was an underdog AND LOST THE GAME was: 09/21/2002 @Kansas State -2.5, KSU won 27-20.

I don't know why I'm having so much fun researching this, but let's do one more. Last time USC was a dog in a Pac Ten conference game was 11/17/2001 vs. UCLA -3.

Semtex · #78 10-22-2007, 03:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
USC is a 2.5 dog to Oregon. Anyone know that last time USC was an underdog?

[/ QUOTE ]
Rose Bowl last year, Michigan -1.5 according to Covers.com

Last time USC was an underdog in a regular season game (and the second most recent time overall): 08/23/2003 @Auburn -4.

Of course USC won both of those games. The last time USC was an underdog AND LOST THE GAME was: 09/21/2002 @Kansas State -2.5, KSU won 27-20.

I don't know why I'm having so much fun researching this, but let's do one more. Last time USC was a dog in a Pac Ten conference game was 11/17/2001 vs. UCLA -3.

[/ QUOTE ]
and they won that too right? i think that was the year when usc beat ucla for the first time after years of losing

BobJoeJim · #79 10-22-2007, 03:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
USC is a 2.5 dog to Oregon. Anyone know that last time USC was an underdog?

[/ QUOTE ]
Rose Bowl last year, Michigan -1.5 according to Covers.com

Last time USC was an underdog in a regular season game (and the second most recent time overall): 08/23/2003 @Auburn -4.

Of course USC won both of those games. The last time USC was an underdog AND LOST THE GAME was: 09/21/2002 @Kansas State -2.5, KSU won 27-20.

I don't know why I'm having so much fun researching this, but let's do one more. Last time USC was a dog in a Pac Ten conference game was 11/17/2001 vs. UCLA -3.

[/ QUOTE ]
and they won that too right? i think that was the year when usc beat ucla for the first time after years of losing

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, USC knocked off UCLA that time, though they did lose two conference games as underdogs that year, @Oregon and @Washington. They were underdogs and/or lost enough times in 2001 that that's where it's not really interesting to keep listing each instance.

MyTurn2Raise · #80 10-22-2007, 03:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
USC is a 2.5 dog to Oregon. Anyone know that last time USC was an underdog?

[/ QUOTE ]
Rose Bowl last year, Michigan -1.5 according to Covers.com

Last time USC was an underdog in a regular season game (and the second most recent time overall): 08/23/2003 @Auburn -4.

Of course USC won both of those games. The last time USC was an underdog AND LOST THE GAME was: 09/21/2002 @Kansas State -2.5, KSU won 27-20.

I don't know why I'm having so much fun researching this, but let's do one more. Last time USC was a dog in a Pac Ten conference game was 11/17/2001 vs. UCLA -3.

[/ QUOTE ]

what has me a bit confused is how most places have different closing numbers for the same games

Phil Steele listed USC -1 v Michigan as the close for last year's Rose Bowl
Goldsheet had it pk
covers had it Michigan -1.5

gah