(razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?

[RustyBrooks]

No particular reads on this player except he had just gotten all in with a (hidden) pair and runner-runnered his way into a win. He's only been at the table for about 15 hands at this point, and he's been playing pretty loose.

At the time of writing this, 15 minutes later, he's now the chip leader. Awesome.

Is folding 5th mandatory here?

Tournament - Razz - Level XV (2,000/4,000), Ante 400, Bring-In 600 (converter)

Seat 1: 53,069
Hero: 33,775
Seat 3: 17,880
Seat 4: 58,388
Seat 6: 49,173
Seat 7: 14,621
Seat 8: 38,757

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 3: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (5.70 SB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (3.85 BB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___???
Seat 7: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

[Praxising]

In a tournament I fold here. (edited) This is a real bad board for you, I say get out.

[RustyBrooks]

The thing is, he has like 1.2bb left when he bets 5th. So I am going to have to put in 2.2bb to win 6bb if my math is right. That's That's really the only thing that says to me, I'm gonna see a river on this one. I think realistically I'm only a 65:35 dog here! I'm getting like 2:1 to call down.

If he has the worst case scenario (A2, or 25, A4 etc, i.e. a 4 card 6, no pair) I'm a 2:1 dog. If he DEFINITELY has one of these, it's neutral EV to call down or fold. If he could have paired, if he could have a 7 or 8 in the hole, or even a 9, I think I'm good. There are a lot of hands he could legitimately have here where I'm only a 60:40 dog.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, he has like 1.2bb left when he bets 5th. So I am going to have to put in 2.2bb to win 6bb if my math is right. That's That's really the only thing that says to me, I'm gonna see a river on this one. I think realistically I'm only a 65:35 dog here! I'm getting like 2:1 to call down.

If he has the worst case scenario (A2, or 25, A4 etc, i.e. a 4 card 6, no pair) I'm a 2:1 dog. If he DEFINITELY has one of these, it's neutral EV to call down or fold. If he could have paired, if he could have a 7 or 8 in the hole, or even a 9, I think I'm good. There are a lot of hands he could legitimately have here where I'm only a 60:40 dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is from the latest FT "tip" by Ivey:
[ QUOTE ]
Calculating the odds can certainly help you decide whether you’re making a smart move, but it doesn’t take into account who you’re playing against. There are many times when you can do all of the math you want and your decision still comes down to intangibles and a feeling about your opponent or the situation you’re facing. Does this guy have a hand? Can I push him off the pot? Am I getting myself into trouble here? Even if the odds say you should play, your gut may be telling you something else, and that’s something you can only develop by playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way I see it, a tournament is a closed system. While making mathematically "correct" calls that will pay off in some future when you have played enough hands might make sense generally, if they pay off when you are playing a cash game long after you've lost the tournament, then using that system to make tournament decisions is not as reasonable as it seems to be.

I ask myself these questions: 1 - no matter how short the guy is - do I want to make him any richer? 2 - how good was this hand on 3rd? 3 - how do I feel about it now? 4 - do I have any good reason to call or am I just talking myself into something? 4 - am I protecting my stack?

I look at my HHs and justify bad calls all the time. For about ten seconds until I remember how much denial costs me in real money. I need real money. I might call this in a cash game, possibly. Not in a trny.

My question is - when you saw the 4, just instinctively, what did you feel you should do?

Remember the Prime Sklansky Directive: folding makes you money. Folding is profit.

[ceegee]

In a tornement I'm folding 5th only because I am clearly drawing to a 9 as my opponet bets there he is saying I'm drawing to at least a 7 or lower. Regardless of odds and chips You are usuallly behind here, and he has at least two more bets which is a good amount with these blinds. I don't mess around here and find a better spot to get my chips in.

[RustyBrooks]

Nope, he has one more bet, and a fraction of a bet. That's all - my final call on the end was 300 chips, as I recall, like .15bb.

1. to me his bet says "I'm getting all in, no matter what" - I have seen people turn over all kinds of garbage.
2. if he's perfect in the hole, I'm getting the right pot odds to call (yes, in a cash game... in a tournament, well, I guess that's why I'm asking)
3. as soon as I saw that Phil Ivey quote in the FTP email, I knew Praxising would be using it in a posting soon. It really does not apply here, I don't think. Losing 2.1bb more would hurt but this isn't NLHE and he didn't just push all in.

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, he has like 1.2bb left when he bets 5th. So I am going to have to put in 2.2bb to win 6bb if my math is right. That's That's really the only thing that says to me, I'm gonna see a river on this one. I think realistically I'm only a 65:35 dog here! I'm getting like 2:1 to call down.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your maths are a little off here. His 300 extra chips isn't 0.2BB, it's less than 0.1. So you're getting pretty close to 3:1 to play for (his) stacks at this point. Really the only decision is between call all the way or raise on 5th.

[cgrohman]

This is a must call. I agree witht he Ivey quote above but that doesnt really apply when the guy sticks in his last amount of money. Its done, its just math at that point.

[RustyBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]

Your maths are a little off here. His 300 extra chips isn't 0.2BB, it's less than 0.1. So you're getting pretty close to 3:1 to play for (his) stacks at this point. Really the only decision is between call all the way or raise on 5th.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're right. I did some back of the envelope calculations from his starting stack above and the bets that went in, arrived at .2bbish. But I'm pretty sure I remember calling 296 chips or something like that on the end.

[RustyBrooks]

ok, I actually just looked at the HH and I called 221 chips on the end... .05bb

So to call down I'm getting 5.8:2 which is awesome.