High Stakes Poker thread (11/5 - 500k buyin - Spoilers expected)

[Will The Thrill]

true, except when everyone has them, at least they help block from people trying to see your cards, since everyone is seperated by their cash walls

[Waylander11]

Whenever i'm playing my regular 2-4 limit game at the taj i like to keep at least 2 or 3 50k bricks on either side of me so one sees my cards

[KamiKatze]

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Whenever i'm playing my regular 2-4 limit game at the taj i like to keep at least 2 or 3 50k bricks on either side of me so one sees my cards

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I prefer those bricks:

[JDesab]

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Youre missing that fact that Doyle knew he could find a better spot to pick off Gold. Why go with the 3rd nuts there when youre reading someone as very strong and he'll probably hand you all his money later? Very nice laydown by Doyle, esp. against someone like Gold.

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this makes sense. look to get into a hand with Gold. because he's horrible.

make third nuts.

fold

reason = esp. against someone like Gold.

here's your real reason = can't call a big bet or raise a big bet without the mortal nuts!! that's safe for sure! wtg.

how about this reasoning. gold raised 100k to keep doyle from drawing with his pair of aces with the nut flush draw? doesn't that fit in better with gold's routine thinking? doyle, i think, simply gave gold too much credit in that hand. i think that is why barry describes him as tilting over the hand. because he believed after the hand that he should have called.

note: my criticism is of you, not Doyle's play

[chipwiz]

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how about this reasoning. gold raised 100k to keep doyle from drawing with his pair of aces with the nut flush draw? doesn't that fit in better with gold's routine thinking? doyle, i think, simply gave gold too much credit in that hand. i think that is why barry describes him as tilting over the hand. because he believed after the hand that he should have called.


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Even if Gold thinks Doyle has a pair with the nut flush draw, what kind of hand can Gold possible have? Are you saying here is that Gold is prepared to play for his entire stack with any hand that is better than a pair of aces with the nut flush draw? He is a fish but not a complete idiot. Gold thought he was super-strong and made it very obvious - he would not feel that way with a pair or trips even, not with 3 spades on the board in a multi-way pot. In my mind Doyle had the choice to make a marginal call, risking his entire stack or wait for a better spot. I suspect it is because of this kind of reasoning Doyle has had such long-term success. If you push to hard in those marginal spots the variance can break you.

[RichGangi]

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how about this reasoning. gold raised 100k to keep doyle from drawing with his pair of aces with the nut flush draw? doesn't that fit in better with gold's routine thinking? doyle, i think, simply gave gold too much credit in that hand. i think that is why barry describes him as tilting over the hand. because he believed after the hand that he should have called.


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Even if Gold thinks Doyle has a pair with the nut flush draw, what kind of hand can Gold possible have? Are you saying here is that Gold is prepared to play for his entire stack with any hand that is better than a pair of aces with the nut flush draw? He is a fish but not a complete idiot. Gold thought he was super-strong and made it very obvious - he would not feel that way with a pair or trips even, not with 3 spades on the board in a multi-way pot. In my mind Doyle had the choice to make a marginal call, risking his entire stack or wait for a better spot. I suspect it is because of this kind of reasoning Doyle has had such long-term success. If you push to hard in those marginal spots the variance can break you.

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Exactly. Well said.

[aislephive]

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Youre missing that fact that Doyle knew he could find a better spot to pick off Gold. Why go with the 3rd nuts there when youre reading someone as very strong and he'll probably hand you all his money later? Very nice laydown by Doyle, esp. against someone like Gold.

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This is a cash game, not a tournament. You don't surpass +EV spots except in very specific circumstances, this doesn't qualify. How does Doyle know he is going to get in a better spot against Jamie? This is live poker, meaning not many hands per hour, and there are 8 other people playing, all just as likely to get Jamie's money. If the third nuts isn't good enough then you're putting Jamie presicely on the second or complete nuts, meaning that in the future you're going to wait until you get the nuts vs Jamie's second nuts? That's extremely unlikely to happen. How often have we even seen big nuts vs second nuts hands overall during HSP? Now what are the odds that happens with two specific players?

Besides, if Doyle loses he can rebuy to cover Jamie who will have a stack of an excess of > $1 million. If Doyle wins, Jamie may or may not rebuy, but it doesn't really matter at that point, he stacked Jamie which is what he wanted to do all along.

[Nielsio]

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Youre missing that fact that Doyle knew he could find a better spot to pick off Gold. Why go with the 3rd nuts there when youre reading someone as very strong and he'll probably hand you all his money later? Very nice laydown by Doyle, esp. against someone like Gold.

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This is a cash game, not a tournament. You don't surpass +EV spots except in very specific circumstances, this doesn't qualify. How does Doyle know he is going to get in a better spot against Jamie? This is live poker, meaning not many hands per hour, and there are 8 other people playing, all just as likely to get Jamie's money. If the third nuts isn't good enough then you're putting Jamie presicely on the second or complete nuts, meaning that in the future you're going to wait until you get the nuts vs Jamie's second nuts? That's extremely unlikely to happen. How often have we even seen big nuts vs second nuts hands overall during HSP? Now what are the odds that happens with two specific players?

Besides, if Doyle loses he can rebuy to cover Jamie who will have a stack of an excess of > $1 million. If Doyle wins, Jamie may or may not rebuy, but it doesn't really matter at that point, he stacked Jamie which is what he wanted to do all along.

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Yeah, I would imagine Doyle easily able to rebuy.

Perhaps he didn't have the funds available at the time? Who knows..

[JDesab]

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Even if Gold thinks Doyle has a pair with the nut flush draw, what kind of hand can Gold possible have? Are you saying here is that Gold is prepared to play for his entire stack with any hand that is better than a pair of aces with the nut flush draw?

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no.. what i am saying is that gold believes he has the best hand at that moment. i is aware that his flush is vulnerable. he wants to raise doyle an amount that makes it harder for doyle to call, yet if doyle calls he must get lucky to beat his made flush. the way i see it, gold did not want doyle to call his raise. he wanted the fold and to take down the pot.

how is this so hard to understand.. you've never made a similar bet?
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He is a fish but not a complete idiot. Gold thought he was super-strong and made it very obvious - he would not feel that way with a pair or trips even, not with 3 spades on the board in a multi-way pot.

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i agree. yet he did not want to simply call doyle, or min raise him (or a little more like 75k). if he had the nut flush he would have surely done one of these things.

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In my mind Doyle had the choice to make a marginal call, risking his entire stack or wait for a better spot.

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i believe that you are right. yet, i think that if doyle had taken more time (if it is to believed that there wasn't a chunk of time edited out of the broadcast where doyle actually did spend some time thinking) that he may have reasoned it out that gold was not very strong with his raise.

i also acknowledge that there are times that you sit with a player and you read him as being much stronger than he actually is. i will reiterate... i do not find great fault with doyle's fold here.
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I suspect it is because of this kind of reasoning Doyle has had such long-term success. If you push to hard in those marginal spots the variance can break you.

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the man says he's been broke more than 100 times in his career. i don't think you or i have anywhere near the knowledge of variance that doyle has. we are discussing a hand that we did not play. it's impossible to know what you or i (anyone) would have done when the action came to us after jamie raised. many people fail to realize that when commenting on hands viewed on television.

[aislephive]

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I suspect it is because of this kind of reasoning Doyle has had such long-term success. If you push to hard in those marginal spots the variance can break you.

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Doyle didn't get rich by avoiding +EV decisions, and Doyle is worth god knows how much. His bankroll isn't exactly his net worth, but if he could take a 55-60% edge for a million dollar pot I'm sure he'd take it every chance that he could.