(razz) fold 7th?

[RustyBrooks]

Seat 1 and 3 are both reasonably tight for the game we're in (looser than me but by no means actually loose) with reasonable raising standards. Seat 3 actually rarely raises plus he has an 8 showing so all I know *for sure* is that he has a 3 card 8. I would suspect it's decent.

If I could count on Seat 3 to bet if checked to, I'd have gone for a check-raise to knock out Seat 1. My hand doesn't seem good enough to risk it, and he's first to act after me so I consider that he might fold. How bad is it to try to check-raise here if they check behind?

On 5th I figure my hand is a little better on average than the other 2, but not good enough to raise. Wrong?

On 6th I am pretty sure I am toast. I have an 876 vs what might well be an 85 or 84 and maybe another 87 or 86. I figure that I have 10 outs to improve (twos, threes, fives, there is one 2 and one 3 gone) out of 32 cards so I think calling is OK. Heads up I might raise but a) the chance that I'm behind is greater and b) I might make a 76 and still lose vs 2 opponents. I find it hard to believe I should fold here, but maybe I should?

Anyway, I brick 7th and Seat 3 bets... I'm pretty sure I'm beat but the pot is huge. The worst thing is the guy behind me, who if he raises I think I definitely have to fold if it comes around.

Pure simulation seems to indicate that my chances of winning on the river are quote low, maybe around 10%.



Razz ($1/$2), Ante $0.20, Bring-In $0.25 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 7: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (7.65 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (5.33 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (8.33 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

River - (14.33 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___checks
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___bets
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___???

[adanthar]

fold sixth

[ QUOTE ]
I figure that I have 10 outs to improve (twos, threes, fives, there is one 2 and one 3 gone) out of 32 cards so I think calling is OK.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, clearly, none of the people in the pot with you have any of those outs or anything

[2461Badugi]

Definitely a fold on sixth.

[betgo]

Reraise is OK sometimes, but I would flat call 3rd.

[RustyBrooks]

I have a feeling this is a huge leak of mine.

[jbrennen]

I probably raise 5th street; with a K-8 tagging along, I'm almost sure to have at least 1/3 equity here. I don't particularly care whether the K-8 folds or pays to draw, but I don't want him to see 6th street cheaply when I have a better made hand and a better draw.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
I probably raise 5th street; with a K-8 tagging along, I'm almost sure to have at least 1/3 equity here. I don't particularly care whether the K-8 folds or pays to draw, but I don't want him to see 6th street cheaply when I have a better made hand and a better draw.

[/ QUOTE ]My first thought was to raise 5th, also. Hero's hand looks very good and I'm all for getting the K to fold. Might sometimes get a surprise fold from the other opponent if he's paired.

[RustyBrooks]

If the K called one the first time he's probably calling 1 again, yeah? He's in the middle so I can't make him call 2 cold unless Seat 1 re-raises and then I think I'm not loving my hand so much, although it's still better if Seat 3 folds.

One thing I hate about 5th is that my hand looks stronger than it is, so if I STILL get re-raised I'm probably against a 4 card 6. Calling makes my hand look weaker than it is so I might convince an opponent that I've paired. That never goes well for me though. I usually do convince my opponent of this but then I'm virtually required to call his next bet.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
If the K called one the first time he's probably calling 1 again, yeah?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know, but my experience is they fold more often than not, because you reraise, the next guy calls - now he's thinking "Damn, these guys must have great hands" and he takes his weak-ass 8 and leaves. And if you get re-raised by the first guy, then good - you get out now before you put any more money in there.

This is one of those messy Chinese-firedrill hands I always hate being in.

[Mathew82]

I think a fold here - Seat 1 called at forth despite catching a block and he bet out the 10 on fifth which unless he is an real idiot must of meant that the six he caught was good and he had a good draw to go along with the ten made at that point. Two eights are out so it is unlikely that the 8 is paired. Seat 3 looks to have also made a low eight by the reraise at sixth and unlikely to be bluffing because you too also look to have made an 8 at that point. Then on seventh - seat one looks to have not improved and plans to check-call, seat 3 looks to have improved further and is betting for value. Although if was a play money tournament I would call....lol

Seat one looks to have made an 86*** low and Seat three either has a lower 86*** or has improved further. You cannot beat either of these two guys by the way that they played their hand.. Should of probably folded on sixth as your drawing to a seven with most of your needed cards out and even if you do improve.... they could too...