10/25 deep 4bet pot big draw

[Massimo]

Why would he raise 99 on the flop? That seems pretty dumb.

[MTBlue]

If there's lots of debate between excellent players about a decision its probably really really close.

[Eagles]

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If there's lots of debate between excellent players about a decision it probably doesn't matter.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

[bugman68]

This hand seemed pretty simple to me since the hero is oop. However, since there are some who favor a call, and since I never call and only shove in this situation, I want to learn more about the calling option.

(Please correct any percentages I have listed as I know they are not exactly accurate. I envy those here who like the math.)

To me, it is a math problem considering villain's range, the pot, and the odds in making your draw. This problem must also consider how much you are compensated or lose when you just call the flop versus how much you are compensated or lose when you shove (dont forget fold equity). In other words which situation is more ev. Ok lets get to the scenario.

After the 1800 miniraise there is $4180 in the pot and hero has 900 to call with $4960 left in his stack, or he can call the 900 and shove an additional $4960 into a $5,080 pot. Hero has 12 outs twice at this time with two cards to come. My feeling is villain will fold the best hand ak qq 1010, and possibly AA a conservative 65 percent of the time. Villain will call with any st8 or set 99 percent of the time (1 percent folding 999 and jjj).

Discussing calling the flop. If hero calls and hits his st8 or flush on the turn, he will have done so with the correct odds to call with what is already in the pot and does not need any more to go into the pot to make the call correct. He will also likely stack his villain over 50 percent of the time.

If hero misses his flush or st8, which will be over 60 percent of the time on the turn, he will then have to check and be facing an all in bet leaving him 2-1 pot odds on a draw over 3-1. Therefore, he will have to fold not seeing the river.

My opinion is that since hero will be facing and all in on the turn if he misses and will have to fold, he should shove which is essentially creating a 2-1 pot odds even if he is called ($5080 in pot after callin 900 and shoving $4960) by shoving on the flop with 12 outs and 2 cards to come. He is also creating some fold equity. By calling he is losing $2540 over 60 percent of the time when he misses his st8 or flush on the turn.

A third option. Hero just calls and shoves any blank or scare card that comes off on the turn other than a paired board. I think this is not a valid option as sets still call and anything that would fold now, would have folded to a shove on the flop.
Please discuss if you will thanks