50NL - I have a monster - how much on the river?

Galwegian · #1 10-02-2007, 10:28 AM

While comments on all streets are welcome, I am by far most interested in the following: How much would you bet on the river and why?

PS Villain is unknown

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($85.85)
SB ($24.50)
BB ($23.20)
UTG ($25.50)
Hero ($52.25)
MP1 ($45.75)
MP2 ($37.95)
CO ($20.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, 3 folds, Button calls $1.75, 1 fold, BB calls $1.25.

Flop: ($5.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $2.1, BB calls $2.10, Hero raises to $9.5, Button calls $7.40, BB calls $7.40.

Turn: ($34) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9.5, Button calls $9.50, BB folds.

River: ($53) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ??

Mike Kelley · #2 10-02-2007, 10:39 AM

I think try a tiny bet $5 to induce a re-raise steal or check to him and try to get him to bluff his missed draw.

Do you think it is at all significant that he bet 38% of the pot on the flop? I think he might of been on a flush draw.

CaptVimes · #3 10-02-2007, 10:40 AM

Bet more on the turn, I would think at least 20 because it makes it easier to get the rest in on the river.

As played you have 31.5 left and a pot of 53. I'm putting it all in here.

Larude · #4 10-02-2007, 10:53 AM

I would raise more preflop to like 3,00 because there are a lot of shortstackers behind you (CO, SB, BB), which I want to deny almost perfect odds to chase with a set + Button is deep enough to get away if necessary. I lead the flop for 5,00; I don't want it to get check around + leading out looks weaker then check-raising (normal C-bet); if the BB reraises I am shoving; if the Button reraises and BB folds I am probably calling and checkraising allin on every turn, if Button reraises and BB calls or rereraises I am shoving. On the turn I am betting like 20 to make it easier to get it allin on the river and to let it seem that you are protecting against a draw. As played I am not getting it allin there because I think KQ or AK might fold in that instance, I am betting like 10 to let it look like a blockingbet and inducing raise or get paid off by KQ, AK, AA or Ksxs, if he has a house he is shoving so no problem there.

CalledDownLight · #5 10-02-2007, 10:55 AM

All of it since its like 60% of the pot and you have a big full house. No reason to do anything else. Also, I'd bet at least $15 on the turn (for me it would be like $24 since thats what I'd double barrel any non-FH hand for).

Landlord79 · #6 10-02-2007, 10:58 AM

This was played so badly, you should have most of your stack in by the turn and be getting the crumbs in on the river. Ck-raising the flop is so strong that any villain should be able to get away from any hand here besides a set. It looks like the villain is on a flush draw and you won't be getting anything else out of him on the river. Bet more on the turn. Better luck next time.

CalledDownLight · #7 10-02-2007, 11:01 AM

yea, I didn't even notice flop c/r. Thats terrible. Just cbet the flop for $5.

Bostik · #8 10-02-2007, 11:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
As played you have 31.5 left and a pot of 53. I'm putting it all in here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pure gold. Anything less looks like an obvious value bet. Also, if you check after playing like that, you will not induce a bluff.

The only way to get any more money out of your opponent is to either bet some utterly silly and insignificant amount or to make the bet look like "go away, I want this" approach.

When you do get paid, the latter is far more profitable [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

FireStorm · #9 10-02-2007, 11:05 AM

Bet more on the turn, which will make the river a no brainer. As played just shove, your opponent either has a big King/better and will call, or a missed draw that can't call anything. If you had any previous history with this guy that suggests he'd fire the river, checking to induce missed spades to bet would be an option.

Mike Kelley · #10 10-02-2007, 11:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As played you have 31.5 left and a pot of 53. I'm putting it all in here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pure gold. Anything less looks like an obvious value bet. Also, if you check after playing like that, you will not induce a bluff.

The only way to get any more money out of your opponent is to either bet some utterly silly and insignificant amount or to make the bet look like "go away, I want this" approach.

When you do get paid, the latter is far more profitable [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

His bet on the turn was tiny. That is why I thought he might induce a bluff.

I think the flop Raise should of been more and I think the turn bet should of been more. Once he's here on the river I'm pretty sure he's looking a busted flush draw with 0 show down value and they don't call vb all ins.