Blind Steal; River Top 2

Roadstar · #1 01-03-2007, 02:45 PM

Reads: Villain is like 22/20 and very aggressive. I've been solid TAG 15/10 but he sat down recently so he may treat me as an unknown. He's pushed lots of ppl off their hands with big bets so I don't know how often he had the goods.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($36.58)
MP ($65.60)
CO ($29.13)
Button ($63.20)
SB ($55.05)
Hero ($50.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
Bl3 folds, SB (poster) raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $7.25, UTG folds, SB calls $5.75.

Reraise here is standard in blind steal I think.

Flop: ($16) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB calls $8.

Bet too small?

Turn: ($32) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Pot control or push here?

River: ($32) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $23, Hero all in? Villain has only $12 more.

Comments on all streets appreciated!

Roadstar · #2 01-03-2007, 04:57 PM

Anyone?

MegalomaniaMan · #3 01-03-2007, 05:04 PM

as played you should call i think. You have slghtly underrepped hand after the flop, i think, plus the ace is a great card for you. the only hands you lose to are sets and kq. if your read on him is correct, i dont think he would have you beat more than 40% of the time, which are the odds you need to call.
as for the raise... on the river, it isreally thin, but maybe + ev

Pavan · #4 01-03-2007, 05:16 PM

I bet $12 on the flop, check behind on the turn and call the river.

Suaimhnea · #5 01-03-2007, 05:24 PM

I like the line preflop against an against opponent, however on the flop I'd be betting $12. With a 3-4 pot-sized bet, you can hopefully better determine whether or not your opponent is calling with a big hand or broadway draw.

Depending on your read after the flop bet, you can proceed with a check and hope to catch good if you believe your opponent has a big hand, or you can shove here (you'd only have ~$30 into a pot of ~$40). With 20/22 numbers I doubt 89s is in your opponents opening range in the SB. So on the turn, I think it is a mistake to not bet if you believe your opponent is calling with a broadway draw or KJ, QJ.

In the context that it played out in, I think you need to shove on the river. It appears that your opponent probably had AK-AT or KQ. 20% of the time, you're getting stacked against a straight, 20% you're chopping (although unlikely with the action) and 60% you're doubling through. I think that's profitable, right?

lol@me

lippy · #6 01-03-2007, 05:58 PM

POOSH, basically nothing beats you with the Villain's line.

silly_monkey · #7 01-03-2007, 06:03 PM

Bet more on the flop, push the river. Nice hand.

[ QUOTE ]

With 20/22 numbers I doubt 89s is in your opponents opening range in the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is almost for sure. I'm 22/17 and I would def open 89s in the SB.

Shaddux · #8 01-03-2007, 06:15 PM

Shove.

Roadstar · #9 01-03-2007, 08:40 PM

Thanks for all the responses.

Starting with the flop, my bet may have been too small. However, I was a little taken back when villain called my fairly sized reraise - it was meant to end the hand there. In my mind I thought he would call the raise with something like 88+, ATs+, AQo+, KQs.

Of that range, I'm ahead greater than 50% of the time and am not easily outdrawn.

Should a pot control the turn or is it poosh time? I wanted to give villain a chance to bluff the river since hes particularly aggro.

I'm glad we have consensus on the river though for the poosh.

As for the results, villain showed 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - MHING. That was a crazy call for him preflop I'd say!

KungFuManchu · #10 01-03-2007, 08:47 PM

I figured this to be a tough spot to be in, and this was before reading results, but I just wanted to address soemthing I saw about the shoves or the "nothing hed play could beat u here"...Id be pretty worried about KQ or a set. he might slow play two pair on occasion (which u are ahead) and on occasion u are ahead (AQ, AT, AK, etc). but I cant say Id like to shove in this spot Id be debating calling.

its kind of a gross spot to be in and after the turn was played the way it was, its hard to say which would be right because you showed weakness on the turn and half potted the flop. yet hes still betting a good amount into you on the ace. given the way things went down its a tough spot, and calling is probably the play here in the long run, that and crossing fingers.