3/6 Weird Check-raise All in on River

[m_reed05]

Villain is 22/18/4.5
I only have 273 hands on the villain, and I'm not sure how many I had at the time this hand occurred. I do know that up to this point, he had never check-raised the river, in fact he had never check-raised any street up to this point. And when I bet the river, he insta-check-raised all in--there was no hesitation at all. His line just makes no sense to me.

I have two thoughts from my experiences: 1) There aren't that many people out there at these stakes tricky enough to check-raise bluff the river. 2) In my experience, people with real hands are more likely to take their time when betting and check-raising, and instant bets and check-raises are much more likely to be bluffs, especially on the river.

So?

Full Tilt Poker, $3/$6 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $1,314.45
BTN: $120
SB: $1,053.65
BB: $609
UTG: $600

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $21</font>, Hero calls $21, BTN folds, SB calls $18, BB folds

Flop: ($69) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $50</font>, Hero calls $50, SB folds

Turn: ($169) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($169) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $90</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $529 and is All-In</font>, Hero ??[/i]

[Parlay Slow]

call

[berserk]

Looks rather heavily like 88 (i'd fold)

[tweed_blazer]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks rather heavily like 88 (i'd fold)

[/ QUOTE ]

huh?

You could argue 88 might check the turn, but after Hero checks along and grossly underplays his overpair (on ALL streets), what in the world would make you think 88 would get sneaky enough to checkraise that river? I think with how deceptively Hero played this hand, this is a must call on the river.

[m_reed05]

But I still (in my eyes) only beat a pure bluff.

And I can't completely agree that I grossly underplayed it. Preflop is certainly justifiable, as I'm trying to induce a squeeze given the 3-bet trigger-happy nature of the games these days. And postflop is all predicated on the fact that I cold called preflop. Given the situation, I felt like I was either way ahead or way behind, and if I pushed too hard, I would only drag along the hands that had me crushed. If alot of money goes into this pot postflop, I am going to be way behind... atleast thats how I felt. Obviously if I had 3-bet and he had called, it would play entirely differently, and I would be much more willing to get it all in.

[Teph]

I don't know when this isn't a fh/AA, but you played it so gaylord that I think villain can take this action and expect you to fold a ton of hands.

I agree with berserk that 88 is pretty likely here though.

Next time just get the money in while ahead imo.

[tweed_blazer]

Let me clarify. I'm not arguing the logistics of your play from a technical standpoint. I was merely pointing out that from the Villains viewpoint, your hand strength is extremely underrepresented and theres really no way for him to put you on that narrow of a range. This just seems to be a very oddly played hand from start to finish and I wouldn't be surprised if it was this confusion that provoked the river checkraise.

[tweed_blazer]

Can someone please explain this 88 read in more depth?

I honestly do not understand the thought process behind that assumption.

[m_reed05]

[ QUOTE ]
...I think villain can take this action and expect you to fold a ton of hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree in theory, but how many people are actually willing to follow through in practice and check-raise all-in on a bluff. I think it's a very small percentage.

[m_reed05]

I time down and fold, simply because so few people are willing to do this on a bluff, and I have to be right a lot for this to be profitable. He shows Jd7d obviously.