gutshot vs 3 bettor

[jba]

I kind of just skimmed your post at first and I was like wtf you can't fold here what's the question. I never would have thought of raising. I can see the merits of it but it's going to take an extra 1.5 bets than I usually spend on this hand, and it gives us the initiative when we hit which is a bad thing. I dunno.

[guenttrs]

I think Hero has less than 7 outs here.

Tight villains 3bet range from BB: TT+, AJs+, AQo+

villains hand - #combos - Heros outs(not clean)
TT 3 7
JJ 3 4
QQ 6 5
KK 3 4
AA 6 4
AK 12 7
AQ 12 6
AJs 3 7

Against these 48 combos hero has medial 5,75 outs.
But villain has massive outs still to win when hero hits an out. For Instance villain holds AQ: turn K river A.
I cant give an exact math to use but i'm sure hero has not more than 4 Outs.

[dacannman]

I think hero has more than 4 outs, but you are probably correct that hero does not have 7 outs on average. Its probably between 5 and 6. Villain is very tight here. So maybe it is a turn fold. I hate letting these people off easy though.

[danzasmack]

"I hate letting these people off easy though."

that's because you forget to love all the times he folds the BB, calls your raise and folds to a flop bet, calls you down on all 3 streets when you can value bet him, and everything else.

If you think you have that few outs in this spot, then you should be fine with it. If you consider all the poker talk about the long run that goes in when discussing limit in particular (this play is +/- EV) - fussing about little spots like this is bad.

This isn't anything pointed at you in particular. Your statement is something a lot of people think, and is the source of a lot of baddddddd play IMO.

I peel the flop. If he bets again on the turn i probably fold.

If i see him do this a few times, I'll mix in just calling down with hands as strong as K9 or even a Jack on boards like this too. I think it slows the BB down. When someone bets 2/3 streets vs. you and pays you off with ace hi they have a strong tendency to doubt themselves. This takes them away from their gameplan, and quite honestly, vs. a loose button stealer, 3-betting out of the BB can really work out well. It can also suck, haha. But i like a little momentum.

[Moseley]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 17/14 over like 80 hands or so in this particular hand but I dont think its relevant to the question that I have.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're thinking is correct.


[ QUOTE ]
I realized that I dont ever raise in this spot, and I think its kind of spewy.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're thinking is correct. The website was created to promote fishy play and loosen up the games on the internet.