sexy this river vs Chez?

[johnnyrocket]

if we think he will call a c/r then we get 2BB, he will prolly call a bet so we get 1BB 100% of the time, so if u think he will bet and call a raise 50+% of the time then the play is most EV.

[efficacy]

I think he will bet any ace close to 100% of the time here, so if he calls the c/r any non-zero amount of the time then c/r should be better than bet, right?

[yourface]

trying to put chez on a range here, tell me what you think

A5o+,A2s+,QT,KQ,QJ,KJ,TJ (do nits open TJo in the CO?), K9 (do nits open K9o in the CO?), Q9 (do nits etc), discounted KK QQ if he was getting trixy preflop

of those hands I doubt he is putting a bet in on the river with less than Ax

so how do we maximize vs those hands? if chez is capable of b/f the river with Ax hands, there is no difference between betting and checking. with no difference in value, I think it is best to checkraise because it gives you protection for when you have QQ here and want the free showdown

vs a showdown monkey I think this is a sweet spot to c/r so long as they wouldn't always raise their Ax hands on the flop or turn

[milesdyson]

<<<<BORDERLINE STANDARD AS MACGUYV SAID EARLIER>>>>

[mattnxtc]

I dont play this guy obviously...but if he wont call with any worse hands...doesnt check at least allow him to vbet his worse ace?

[Heisenb3rg]

His range is aces and jacks.
Count how many aces are in his pre flop range, then count how many jacks are in his preflop range.. Make sure to discount the aces cause you have one.

You'll miss out a bet from a jack, but gain a bet from aces. He's not folding Ax.
There is a small chance he has soethhing like QT and decided not to bluff it, but may fire a river bet...

However theres also a small chance he has 9x and is planning to call a river bet (see hand below)... The two probabily cancel each other out.

My guess is it works out to slightly more aces than jacks, sooo... sexy

Against a more agro opponent, a sexy is so so clear, because they will probabily bet/call Jx on the river too.
I knew this hand would be useful someday...

POKERSTARS GAME #12368955207: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($10/$20) - 2007/09/30 - 23:31:31 (ET)
Table 'Nemausa IV' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: N L KEMP ($640 in chips)
Seat 2: smurfen22 ($785.50 in chips)
Seat 3: SarahJuggs ($176.50 in chips)
Seat 4: chezlaw ($806 in chips)
Seat 5: Heisenb3rg ($754 in chips)
Seat 6: unjust ($867 in chips)
Heisenb3rg: posts small blind $5
unjust: posts big blind $10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Heisenb3rg [Ah Kh]
N L KEMP: calls $10
smurfen22: folds
SarahJuggs: folds
chezlaw: raises $10 to $20
Heisenb3rg: raises $10 to $30
unjust: folds
N L KEMP: folds
chezlaw: calls $10
*** FLOP *** [Ac 4h 2s]
Heisenb3rg: bets $10
chezlaw: calls $10
*** TURN *** [Ac 4h 2s] [9h]
Heisenb3rg: bets $20
chezlaw: calls $20
*** RIVER *** [Ac 4h 2s 9h] [7d]
Heisenb3rg: checks
chezlaw: bets $20
Heisenb3rg: raises $20 to $40
chezlaw: raises $20 to $60
Heisenb3rg said, "A7?"
Heisenb3rg said, ""
chezlaw said, "no"
Heisenb3rg: calls $20
*** SHOW DOWN ***
chezlaw: shows [7h 7c] (three of a kind, Sevens)
Heisenb3rg: mucks hand
chezlaw collected $257 from pot
Heisenb3rg said, "ahhh"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $260 | Rake $3
Board [Ac 4h 2s 9h 7d]
Seat 1: N L KEMP folded before Flop
Seat 2: smurfen22 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: SarahJuggs folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: chezlaw (button) showed [7h 7c] and won ($257) with three of a kind, Sevens
Seat 5: Heisenb3rg (small blind) mucked [Ah Kh]
Seat 6: unjust (big blind) folded before Flop

[inferno]

I always bet/call in these spots, call me oldfashion