AA turn spot

[Mitke]

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I bet/call. He appears aggressive enough to make this play with AK/AQ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as well as with QQ/JJ (hand protection vs. MP1 in case he's ahead of you). I'm actually very close to bet/3bet on the turn, but it really sucks when we get capped there.

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Aww.. I missed MP1 and Btn totally... should not post before morning coffee..


Anyways, Villain raises Hero's c-bet when there's two still left to act behind him. He could do this with AK/AQ/AJ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] but to do this vs pfr from BB who 3-bet an EP raise + 2 cold-callers seems like a move we don't see too often(?).

He might prefer to keep the other two in the pot for implied odds with a draw. Still, with the MP1 still there the cap might be pumping the pot with AK/AQ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] often enough that b/c turn is good. Can't really tell which is best.

[neurotiq]

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His 7.3 is based on 580-something hands. How do you know he's not really a 9-10? or a 5-6?

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580 hands is more than enough to get a pretty accurate fix on PFR percentage.

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Really? Margin of error for a sample of 580 is plus or minus 3.4% (90% confidence interval). This means that the actual PFR could be anywhere between 4.9% and 10.7% (pretty much exactly what Yerma said).

[ThierryHenry]

:GRUNCH:

I think bet/call is the way to go. Chances are he either has 99-KK or AhKh/Qh. IF he had a set he probably would wait until the turn to raise.

[scott2130]

Dankenstein got it right 2 mins after you posted, although not with much explanation.

Everyone thinks that all the players at such low limits are unthinking donkeys, but that is not the case anymore. You, the other posters, and myself, play these limits and we are thinking players. Why then is it so hard to believe that another thinking player could be at your table at any given time?

Bravos and knockonwood missed key points at first and then started to back peddle after you pointed them out. First he didn’t cap pre-flop. This tells me that he didn’t have AA, KK, QQ, or AKs. You also have to remember that you have AA so the chances of him also having AA are greatly reduced. He may have one of the other hands mentioned but you don’t know yet.

Second, he capped the flop. Then when you take into account how he did it, (you missed this) you should have pause. Villain made MP1 call 2 bets cold not once but twice, driving him out of the pot. If there was a flush draw, MP1 was on it and he is now gone. Making another player call two bets cold shows he is protecting his hand, so you should be thinking sets or two pair at the least. Why would an over pair not be good enough to cap with preflop but on the flop it is?

Third, you didn’t think about what he thinks you have. His stats show a tight raiser and he just saw you 3-bet pre-flop and on the flop, but he still capped the flop. If he does have an over pair don’t you think he is starting to put you on a bigger one after you 3-bet the flop too. If so, why would he cap it then? Then again this goes back to you thinking everyone is a donkey BUT YOU at these stakes.

Given the action the c/r is terrible. You should be thinking you are behind and betting into him is already being aggressive and putting more money into the pot without giving him the option to 3-bet you. If he has two pair he will just call and then you can bet the river for value. If he raises, folding now becomes a viable option. This is read dependant and since your posts didn’t put much faith into a set then calling him down unimproved is the way to go.

[Aaron W.]

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Second, he capped the flop. Then when you take into account how he did it, (you missed this) you should have pause. Villain made MP1 call 2 bets cold not once but twice, driving him out of the pot. If there was a flush draw, MP1 was on it and he is now gone.

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Ummmmm... no.

[rhayder]

Grunch:

Bet/Call UTG+2 probably thinks you are a fish betting overcards and holds a lower pocket overpair. The only cards he has that might have you beat right now is pocket 77 or 88. If you improve raise.

[bozlax]

I've read the thread and can't believe this is getting this much attention. This is the easiest bet/call in the history of forever. How did this forum get so weak-tight overnight?

Yeah, Villan didn't cap preflop and did cap the flop. If he puts Hero on the same range Hero's putting him on, he's making that play with QQ, and probably JJ/TT, too, given his stats. He might pull this with AQs/AJs, granted only in spades or hearts, but given that there are only 3 combos of 88 to worry about (I don't really think 77 is in his range from UTG+2 pf, unless the table is uber-tight) including those 4 hands alone puts you ahead of his range. Give a 10% chance that Villan has some read on JJack that he thinks he can exploit (zomg, is such a thing possible? fold the turn after flop aggression much, JJack?) (just because Hero HAS AA doesn't mean Villan is PUTTING him on AA), and it's even more likely.

HERO IS WAY AHEAD OF VILLAN'S RANGE AND GIVEN THAT VILLAN CAPPED BEFORE MP1 FOLDED, GETTING THAT FOLD MAY HAVE BEEN PART OF HIS MOTIVATION -AND- HE'S KNOWN AGGRESSIVE.

The good news for Hero is that Villan isn't folding anything just because you bet, but you don't want to give a freebie to a flush draw. The interesting question is how best to play the river; given how aggressive he is, I think it's an easy check-call if he smooth-calls the turn, but if he raises the turn...meh, I think check-call is probably best in that instance, too. So, bet/call-check/call is the line.

[scott2130]

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Quote:
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Second, he capped the flop. Then when you take into account how he did it, (you missed this) you should have pause. Villain made MP1 call 2 bets cold not once but twice, driving him out of the pot. If there was a flush draw, MP1 was on it and he is now gone.


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Ummmmm... no.

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Ok, then what is your theory? As is, your post is worthless.

[Mitke]

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Second, he capped the flop. Then when you take into account how he did it, (you missed this) you should have pause. Villain made MP1 call 2 bets cold not once but twice, driving him out of the pot. If there was a flush draw, MP1 was on it and he is now gone.

Ummmmm... no.

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Ok, then what is your theory? As is, your post is worthless.

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I have to agree that a FD would not fold here in this big pot.

[bravos1]

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Dankenstein got it right 2 mins after you posted, although not with much explanation.

Everyone thinks that all the players at such low limits are unthinking donkeys, but that is not the case anymore. You, the other posters, and myself, play these limits and we are thinking players. Why then is it so hard to believe that another thinking player could be at your table at any given time?

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I really doubt people think that all of these players are idiots. I for one don't unless they have already showed me they are.
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Bravos and knockonwood missed key points at first and then started to back peddle after you pointed them out.

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What points did I miss? When did I start to back-pedal? I made one post in this thread stating my thoughts and didn't waver in them at all, and still won't.
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First he didn’t cap pre-flop. This tells me that he didn’t have AA, KK, QQ, or AKs.

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OK.. so just because he doesn't cap PF does not rule out all of those hands ESPECIALLY AKs!! A 7.3PFR does not "typically" cap w/ AKs. And while AA/KK are not very likely to be here, they are still a possibility, even if you want to heavily discount them.
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You also have to remember that you have AA so the chances of him also having AA are greatly reduced. He may have one of the other hands mentioned but you don’t know yet.

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Yes, we don't know, and we won't know until he flips them at showdown if we/he gets there.
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Second, he capped the flop. Then when you take into account how he did it, (you missed this) you should have pause.

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What do you mean how he "did" it? He raised both chances he was given.. no one missed that. It's not like he did some strange cold call/cap line or anything.
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Villain made MP1 call 2 bets cold not once but twice, driving him out of the pot. If there was a flush draw, MP1 was on it and he is now gone.

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If MP1 had a flush draw, I guarantee he would not have folded for 2 more on the flop with his pot odds being better and his implied odds shooting through the roof.
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Making another player call two bets cold shows he is protecting his hand,

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Possibly, but he can also think he is doing this for value w/ a big draw like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] thinking he has 9 flush outs plus over card outs (even if he discounts these)
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so you should be thinking sets or two pair at the least.


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2 pair? I'll get back to that in a second.
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Why would an over pair not be good enough to cap with preflop but on the flop it is?

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Who knows??? Maybe he has been burned recently holding JJ-KK and wants to see a good flop before pushing harder?
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Third, you didn’t think about what he thinks you have. His stats show a tight raiser and he just saw you 3-bet pre-flop and on the flop, but he still capped the flop. If he does have an over pair don’t you think he is starting to put you on a bigger one after you 3-bet the flop too. If so, why would he cap it then?

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Again, we don't know the whole story here. Maybe JJ has been very aggro or even spewed a hand earlier? Maybe the villain saw JJ push a huge draw real hard correctly in a 7 way field, but he thinks it was massive spew? Maybe JJ has been super hot and villain thinks hero is FOS? Without some additional info we really can't begin to think about what villain is putting hero on.
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Then again this goes back to you thinking everyone is a donkey BUT YOU at these stakes.


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WRONG!
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Given the action the c/r is terrible. You should be thinking you are behind and betting into him is already being aggressive and putting more money into the pot without giving him the option to 3-bet you. If he has two pair he will just call and then you can bet the river for value.


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OK, this is the second time you have mentioned 2 pair. You just said that he is a tight PFR'er, yet you think there is a possibility that he has 2 pair?
<font color="red">
OK, here is my challenge for you. Give me a range for villain here? And since you think it is possible for him to have raised 72/82/87 here, please include those and all other wacky hands like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or whatever....

After you do so, I'll point out what is wrong w/ your range (for obvious reasons). If you want to go the extra step, give me a weighted range instead of a raw range and why you feel this reflects his range better.</font>
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If he raises, folding now becomes a viable option. This is read dependant and since your posts didn’t put much faith into a set then calling him down unimproved is the way to go.

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Boz, I have to disagree with you a bit regarding this hand getting too much attention. These hands are great examples of how we should be putting our opponents on reasonable ranges and acting accordingly. I did a post a while back talking about this same type of scenario and other scenarios such as getting raised on the river when you hold AA on a 66224 (or similar board) by someone who capped PF and why we should be 3betting and NEVER contemplating a fold in that scenario.

Post flop is where all of the good players make money. Losing out on bets or giving too much action post flop on just 2-3 hands a session can seriously eat into your winrate and can be the difference between a break even player and someone earning 2.5BB/100.