#1
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theory: \"the showdown tax\"
a 1/2 assed and very delayed pooh bah-esque post that details how i make a ton of my money and have such a good table image, from YOUR california terp
i've mentioned this before in an AK hand of shpanko's. the basic idea is that if 1) i get to the river 2) i have about a pot sized bet behind 3) i figure to be good almost always (in position "most of the time" suffices) 4) i shove THE BENEFITS avoid negative freerolls: this only applies for OOP play. if we get owned by c/c river but can't stand to fold, we're in a negative freeroll spot. we basically shrug and shove and say FU you figure out what you can call me with fish. metagame: i don't really care if i get called, though i probably wouldn't mind a call. this goes against pretty conventional valuebetting theory and that's because this is NOT a pure valuebet. it has a lot of metagame value. everyone tries to pretend that metagame is of little value at SSNL - but that's not true. we all do things that are meta-dependent. when i shove in these spots, my cbets and double barrels become more powerful. they're not "one and done" automatic shots in the dark on any and every flop. my opponents come to expect to face a LOT of heat to reach showdown against me. range merging: this is part of that stuff aejones wrote about. i'm not only shoving air and the nuts on the river; i'm shoving hands that are PROBABLY best but are not nearly strong enough to win if they were called every time. avoid showing my hand: this is self-explanatory but it also forces your opponents to grasp in the dark to discern your range in these spots. some examples: Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) SB: $227.45 BB: $148.95 UTG: $75.90 <font color="black">Hero (MP): $116.90</font> CO: $130.50 BTN: $122.05 <font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players) UTG calls $1.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.50</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $3.50, UTG calls $3.50 <font color="black">Flop:</font> ($14) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players) BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $9.00</font>, BB calls $9.00, UTG folds <font color="black">Turn:</font> ($32) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $25.00</font>, BB calls $25.00 <font color="black">River:</font> ($82) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets all-in for $78.40</font> Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) <font color="black">Hero (SB): $137.65</font> BB: $177.95 UTG: $96.00 MP: $118.10 CO: $92.80 BTN: $99.50 <font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players) 2 folds, CO calls $1.00, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5.00</font>, BB folds, CO calls $4.00 <font color="black">Flop:</font> ($11) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $9.00</font>, CO calls $9.00 <font color="black">Turn:</font> ($29) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $21.00</font>, CO calls $21.00 <font color="black">River:</font> ($71) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $71.00</font> and one more that i no longer have HH for...this is about as thin as it gets. and oddly enough this was the only one of these three where i got called. (i won) 100bb stacks MP limps, i raise 66 in the BB 643[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] he calls ~pot turn 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] he calls pot river 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <PSB behind...i shove |
#2
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
mmmh....i believe you're a better player than me, but
if i read those hands in a post by someone else, i'd hate the river action |
#3
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
wow at the last one
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#4
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
op = straight thug
seriously... i think these river plays are around 0 ev with notable metagame value. |
#5
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
My default line in the first would be to check behind on the flop and call probably any bet on the river. This is a pretty interesting post and something I need to venture into a little more.
Edit: Doesn't this apply more when we are OOP, when c/c is a possibility? |
#6
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
CAterp, do you find that doing this all the time leads to ridiculously high variance?
Or is the point that you're quite judicious about when you do it (in terms of likelihood that you're ahead)? Which would make all of these more like thin value bets which you say they're not. Just curious because I like the idea and I don't think meta is irrelevant at SSNL but I'm wondering if doing this for range merging might just be a bit unnecessary. |
#7
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
personally, i think hand 1 is probably +ev in a vacuum.
hand 2 is probably about neutral ev, in my opinion. hand 3 seems like it would be -ev, but op was called in that one and won, and results are what matter. i assume these plays add to his variance somewhat (but probably not much, because as he said, the river shoves don't get called that often). i don't think his variance is too high, though, because i happen to know that he's been dicing up the games. |
#8
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
These hands are gross in a vacuum and should be judged in context.
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#9
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
I think its good at first, but if a villain adjusts properly he can seriously value check own you a lot. By villain being passive in these spots with a big ace or overpair you'll be dumping stacks to villains who can properly adjust to your bet/bet/bet lines. I guess it just comes down to how frequently you are doing this, and if villains are good enough to adjust properly.
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#10
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
I feel like when I'm playing well I do this much more often. Good explanation of why it's a good play.
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