'Going Pro'- a serious conversation

[hammer33]

Everyone's hot topic at the moment..As referenced by the Wicks string interest on the sitgo boards. Not to dismiss the sincere interest in that board, but I want to discuss poker careers where we're looking to net 250K+ per year...not micro grinding.

I was on the fence of making the plunge. Now I can't sleep until I committ to it and will regret it if I dont. If the complexity of my situation wasnt just that, I'd have made the move in a nano-second already. Without getting into uneccessary detail, I'd be leaving a successful job that has a fair amount of security but not 100% security if that makes any sense. I have a family, a rocky marriage (a wife that is not supportive of the career change..mind you that I am the breadwinner and have 18 month old) For the better part of the last 6 months, Ive balanced the career with about 20+ hours of week playing online, 20+hrs a week of reading, discussing poker. I've had about 10 live poker trips within that span(dozens more spanning the last few years), including some wsopcircuit events and the wpt events in my area. In short, I've gone from being slightly profitable to being a consistent winner (pace based on hourly profit is 33% more than salary)and with a higher level of passion for the game than I ever thought possible (and not just because the ROI has improved thru hard work) My breakthrough can be traced back to when a good friend of mine was a circuit event a few months ago for 90k. Being part of that convinced me 100% that this is what I want to do, full stop!

Enough about that..Questions for those kind enough to start a dialogue with me on this..
-Thoughts on the percentage of 2+2'ers that are professional poker players?
-Thoughts on the percentage of players that 'go-pro' and successfully maintain the neccessary ROI given their own goals?
-Anyone with personal commentary on how the poker experience changed when it went from supplemental income to main source of income..

FWIW my game consists of an equal mix of cash, sitgos, MTT all--both live and online..mostly NLHE but I will play the other games with a slight profit..I do not play limit.

My bankroll situation is that I have about 1 1/2 years of comfortable living expenses saved up..however my poker bankroll is mixed in with that..so i could argue that I am funded for 9 months of living expenses and a separate 9 month bankroll given the stakes I play...

serious discussion only please...terrible decision to go pro or reasonable given the circumstances?

i will be playing the wsop events in vegas and there is not an urgency to make the decision one way or another other than the fact that I am consumed with making an immediate decision..

[Central Limit]

You didn't really give much info about the limits you play.

Also, in my opinion, the relevant equation is:

job + poker > poker only

Let's say you make 100k/year playing poker 20 hours/week and you make 100k/year working 40 hours/week. Of this, you manage to save 80k/year directly into your bankroll. What I predict will happen is the following:

When you go poker only, you'll play 50 hours/week. You'll make $150,000/year*. But you'll have to pay your own health insurance, won't have a 401k, may have to file taxes as a professional poker player. So, you'll end up saving about $20k/year to your poker bankroll after all this. Based on this, it's usually better for your life and your poker if you keep your job.

* Why only $150,000/year when you're tripling the amount of poker you're playing? Lots of reasons. First, you currently plying mostly on the weekends. The games are easier on the weekends. You won't be able to maintain your winrates during the week. Also, it's rare that you can maintain your A game for 50 hours. It just gets too draining. And on and on.

[hammer33]

Limits..I play anything from the $10rebuys on Stars to $1500 MTT live tourneys..Have had success across a wide range..Have also negative variance runs at both ranges..
Sitgos $25-$500.
NL Cash games. I typically play NL $2/$5 $500 buy-in, and a wide range of buyins online NL.25/.50 up to NL$5/10.

Insurance/401k variables all factored into my 33% number. I've run the numbers probably 10 times.

The triple playing time vs expected ROI is the conversation I have..I get that the weekend play is more profitable, but arent I losing some equity when I play after a hard week when I'm probably not well rested..And when I play at night after working during the day, am I playing my most optimal game..Am I making bad end game decisions knowing I have to get up in 4 hours for work..Am I missing a great game because I have work etc etc..

I've found that my game has improved as Ive played more hours..Could be a coincidence because Im more versed aka better player than when I was playing 15hrs. Just wonder to your point if there is a point of a diminishing returns..50hrs good 55th hour-optimal play falls off..
Anyone else with real life experiences regarding this?

[PJo336]

My main concern would pertain to your family. You said you have an 18 month year old correct? And you said your wife is not very fond of this idea. Let me put it to you the way I believe. Family has gotta be at the top of your considerations. An 18 month kid is going to require a lot of time, not to mention the fact that you dont want to miss out on alot of his/her life. I dont know what your schedule consists of now, but I would imagine you would go from working during the day at your job to working at night? As of right now that may not be a problem, but what about when your kid starts school? He/she will be gone all day and you may be gone all night.

This is all speculation because I dont know about your family and the situation, but remember this is a long term commitment. Just because things work with your family now, doesnt neccessarily mean it will work in 4 years.

Also, your wife. I would say once (if) you convince yourself that this is a good decision, you will then have to convince her before you think of making a move. Your part of a team, and you dont wanna risk losing your contract with that team by making a selfish decision. Sorry for the lame comparison, but my point is, family first. Plan, discuss, plan, discuss, and repeat about 10000000 times. It to me would have to be one of the most important aspects of the decision.

[hammer33]

Thanks PJ. Providing for family is priority. In terms of wife, we are separating for a variety of issues sooner than later..while poker is certainly a piece of the puzzle, its not the main issue. with regard to my amazing son, as it is now, i see him for 2 hours every night, thats it. with poker and a flexible schedule, i would be on the road more, but I would have more quality days where I could spend all day with him..this certainly comes into play as a positive IMO.

[sick!]

I think you should stick with your job and playing poker at the same time a little while longer. Playing for only 6 months really isn't very long as you could be on the good side of variance. Right now you have the security of your job so you can take more risks playing poker but if your deriving all your income from poker stress will become more of an issue especially if/when you go on a downswing.

Yes there is a diminishing return. Right now your playing poker for "the fun of it". So the few hours you play is more of a relaxing time as a opposed to work. But if your grinding it out 5-6 days a week for 8-12 hours, it's a lot different. Obviously the more you play the better your probably going to be which would account for you improvement.

Also if your turning pro, you can't mix your savings with your bankroll. Your bankroll is your bankroll. Same as if you had your own business. What you invest into your business stays there for operational purposes. You pay yourself a salary essentially. The money outside should be in case your business goes under. So you should have at least 6 months of savings. Better if it's a year.

Also you must respect the decisions of your family. Family comes first. Try keeping your job a tad longer...say another half year. That way you'll have at least a full year's worth of playing time to convince her. Your the sole income earner so you have to understand her point of view. After that, try taking a leave of absence(sp?) or vacation for a couple of months (or more if you can) and try it out full time to see how well you do (ie your how much you make at the table can actually replace your income) and if you do really like it. Since you didn't say whether this will be online or live, spending one day at the casino is a lot different than spending 5-6 days there and/or spending months on the road at tournaments. You'd also have to consider all the pitfalls that staying in a casino will entail.

Hope this helps.

[savageorc]

Dude, if you are heading towards a divorce, it would be a very, very bad idea for you to start a gambling career. If you go on a downswing during this period, her lawyer will come after you for dissipation of the marital estate because the court will not hear the words "poker pro" but rather "degenerate gambler". Whatever loses you post will come out of your half of the property.

Your problems in this area are further compounded because if you wait until after your possible divorce to change careers, in some states "voluntary" changes in circumstances aren't looked upon favorably by the courts. The court doesn't want some guy making decent coin quiting his job to work at McDonalds to spite the ex-wife and reduce his child support payments.

So you are in a difficult position.

You need to realize that the stress that your rocky marriage relationship is causing you is probably clouding your judgment. Make sure that your numbers are right. Make sure that you want to put this nail in the coffin of your relationship.

Think really hard about this decision. If you want to go forward, speak with a divorce attorney regarding the possible consequences of your actions. If you live in a conservative area, the judiciary may not look favorably on your decision.

[Matt G]

I'm all for anybody following their dreams. One hundred percent. However, after you have kids, that has to be your number one. I'm not saying it is not yours btw. Stable job would be the much more responsible thing to do. I agree with central, keep a steady job while working on your poker game. There should not be a huge rush. Maybe build up your br a little more and get things more stable, for your family's sake. Sorry to hear about the marital issues and I wish you the very best of luck in whatever you chose to do. Anyway you could just cut hours at work? pt or something?

[ratel]

The first thing you need to do is completely separate your poker bankroll from the money you live on. Manage them independently. With an 18-month-old depending on you, this is the single most important decision you could possibly make.

If I were you, I'd find a new job where I could work part-time, and spend the next six months concentrating on moving up online. You'll make more money playing poker, and be able to spend time around your family too. Good luck!

[llleisure]

You should definitely read these two articles from the last 2 issues of the 2+2 Internet magazine:

Winners Make Good Trade-offs, Parts 1 & 2

http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/i...maker0307.html
http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/c...maker0407.html

Going through the execercise in the first part may help you identify your motivation, the trade offs you're willing to make to acheive your goals and thus help you make the best decision.

One question about your being profitable - do you have some large tourney money figured in you being a winning player over the last year, or is it cash game profits you're talking about? I'm curious about that after reading the articles as the differences between cash and tourneys are mentioned there.

You might also want to have a look at "The Flop" article in the Spring 2007 Poker Life magazine about John D'Agostino and what he has to say about tournaments vs cash games.

What affect would the ceasation of being able to play online (or at least the ability to access money you have online) have on your income? Despite what anyone wants to admit, that is a possibility - soon.

I don't have kids but I did go through a divorce and it was difficult. I cannot imagine having a child, going through a divorce AND changing to a career with less security all at once but thats just me, YMMV.