NL100: AJs Flops big combo draw

[warbler]

I'm against pushing! (there i said it)

Now before you all flame the crap out of me hear me out.

I would assume that an overwhelming majority of his calling range is two pair and up. We are then essentially pushing on the strength of our flush draw alone. Would you push with A2h?? I think not! SO if he calls we are a signifigant dog.

Now if were in front of say KhQh then just smooth call and stacking him when we hit gives up a little ev but not as much as avoiding getting it all in as a dog losses us. This also applies to one pair hands.

The folding equity while present I think will be small - I don't see him laying down better hands and quite frankly it's hard to see him calling with worse.

Just call keep the variance low and push the ev up i think

[FuriousD]

How often are you up against a hand that the villain will fold? QQ-JJ might fold (though AhJh) is a sight favorite anyway). I can't see how TT would fold. KhQh is a dream scenario but I would think even some of the worst players would have folded that preflop.

Over the board I guess I would have shoved this but I'm guessing that a call is better here.

[threads13]

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How often are you up against a hand that the villain will fold? QQ-JJ might fold (though AhJh) is a sight favorite anyway). I can't see how TT would fold. KhQh is a dream scenario but I would think even some of the worst players would have folded that preflop.

Over the board I guess I would have shoved this but I'm guessing that a call is better here.

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I agree, but I still think terrible players are calling with KhQh if we define our terrible player as too loose.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm against pushing! (there i said it)

Now before you all flame the crap out of me hear me out.

I would assume that an overwhelming majority of his calling range is two pair and up. We are then essentially pushing on the strength of our flush draw alone. Would you push with A2h?? I think not! SO if he calls we are a signifigant dog.

Now if were in front of say KhQh then just smooth call and stacking him when we hit gives up a little ev but not as much as avoiding getting it all in as a dog losses us. This also applies to one pair hands.

The folding equity while present I think will be small - I don't see him laying down better hands and quite frankly it's hard to see him calling with worse.

Just call keep the variance low and push the ev up i think

[/ QUOTE ]

you have a gutshot too

[warbler]

Look shoving is prolly +ev. I just think that calling is better. The gutty means the 2 pairs and smaller straight are about 55% favs instead of bigger ones - ok so thats prolly compensated by with the F/E but the sets still have u ruined at 68%.

The other thing about calling is that money added to the pot when your lock does sexy things to your overall ev calculations. Also we have clear calling price against all hands + ranges. And lastly we have position which allows us to better extract after hitting

BTW I didn't notice the gutty first time around and OOP I might push

[threads13]

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Look shoving is prolly +ev. I just think that calling is better. The gutty means the 2 pairs and smaller straight are about 55% favs instead of bigger ones - ok so thats prolly compensated by with the F/E but the sets still have u ruined at 68%.

The other thing about calling is that money added to the pot when your lock does sexy things to your overall ev calculations. Also we have clear calling price against all hands + ranges. And lastly we have position which allows us to better extract after hitting

BTW I didn't notice the gutty first time around and OOP I might push

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I don't think the gutshot adds enough equity to make a HUGE difference here. It is an extra 3 weak outs. On average I might count them as 1.5 outs altogether. I think you still are looking at a 10-12 out draw here mostly.

[1p0kerboy]

Oops... I missed the gutshot. I was sitting here thinking why OP was calling this a combo draw. Silly me.

Before I said either push or call depending on the player. I think I'm going to retract and push in this spot against almost everyone.

[threads13]

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Oops... I missed the gutshot. I was sitting here thinking why OP was calling this a combo draw. Silly me.

Before I said either push or call depending on the player. I think I'm going to retract and push in this spot against almost everyone.

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What range are you putting the SB on here?

[effang]

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Oops... I missed the gutshot. I was sitting here thinking why OP was calling this a combo draw. Silly me.

Before I said either push or call depending on the player. I think I'm going to retract and push in this spot against almost everyone.

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What range are you putting the SB on here?

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i agree with threads. you have very, very, little FE. the ONLY hands you have fold equity are...JJ (MAYBE, they have the gutter to), QQ, and small pp.

I think you guys don't realize how dangerous this board. aside from a monochrome board, this is about as bad as it gets.

this is NL100, i doubt anybody is making a play at you thinking you can lay down a big PP. this board, you either have a set, 2p, or a combo draw.

You are only beating a combo draw. I would be more than happy the call the reraise, and see if i hit my gutter/FD. There is no way my 2 overs are good unless i hit runner runner for 2p.

[threads13]

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Oops... I missed the gutshot. I was sitting here thinking why OP was calling this a combo draw. Silly me.

Before I said either push or call depending on the player. I think I'm going to retract and push in this spot against almost everyone.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range are you putting the SB on here?

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i agree with threads. you have very, very, little FE. the ONLY hands you have fold equity are...JJ (MAYBE, they have the gutter to), QQ, and small pp.

I think you guys don't realize how dangerous this board. aside from a monochrome board, this is about as bad as it gets.

this is NL100, i doubt anybody is making a play at you thinking you can lay down a big PP. this board, you either have a set, 2p, or a combo draw.

You are only beating a combo draw. I would be more than happy the call the reraise, and see if i hit my gutter/FD. There is no way my 2 overs are good unless i hit runner runner for 2p.

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I am liking you more and more..... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]