NFL Week 10 player props thread

[silentbob]

Nothing on Bodog yet, but I've made one bet already:

Philip Rivers NO interception in the first half at +125 for 1 unit (VIP/BetGameDay). Of all the NFL player props that I've bet, this one is among the most puzzling. In his 27 games as a starter thus far, Rivers has thrown a pick in 15 of them. And in those 15 games, his pick occurred in the second half in 6 of them. I seriously doubt that the "true" odds of Rivers throwing a first half pick is 22 percent, but one would have to think that at worst it is 50/50. For that reason alone, taking this prop at positive odds would seem to be +EV. But I can't quantify the edge to any degree of certainty, so one unit will suffice. FWIW, the Colts have picked off passes in 7 out of 8 games this season, but the picks happened in the first half in only 3 of 7. Also, the picks that happened in two games came against backups (Gradkowski and Q. Gray). Again, I doubt that Rivers is predisposed to throw an interception in the first half, or that the Colts are predisposed to intercept passes in the first half. Who knows. Like I said, +125 is good enough for me. How the yes was set at -155 is completely baffling.

Anyone want to take a stab at why the no might be a bad bet?

YTD: 25-17, +6.67 units

[alwardc4]

I am with you. This is a nice find. With prop bets sometimes you just find ones that are just wacko.

The one that I found that I cannot figure out is Arizona +140 to score first. Arizona is currently a 1 point favorite. I don't get it. I put a couple units on it.

[CieloAzor]

That Rivers prop is just beautiful. I'd max it if I had an account there.

[psuasskicker]

Where do you find 1st vs. 2nd half INTs?

He's thrown at least one INT in 7 out of 9 games this year. I don't know first vs. second half break-downs, but even if it's 60% first vs. second half, looks like you've still got a wildly profitable bet. Nice find.

- C -

[Rustjive]

[ QUOTE ]
Where do you find 1st vs. 2nd half INTs?

[/ QUOTE ]

ESPN will do all sorts of splits: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/player...?playerId=5529

[cefis21]

Kurt Warner +1 vs. Kitna. Bodog.

Detroit 30th in Pass D. Arizona 7th best in pass D. Arizona at home.

[RitmoEnElCaos]

Tony Gonzalez over 75.5 yards receiving (-115 on bodog)

Denver has the worst defense in the league against opposing TE. At home this week, Gonzalez has eclipsed this mark in all four home games this year (but not once on the road). Larry Johnson is out, which will turn some KC running plays into short passes.

I usually stick to Poisson props, but this one is worth a couple of units.

[silentbob]

Not many juicy lines this week. Lots with small but not bet-able edges. The only one I jumped on this morning is:

Shaun McDonald under 5 pass receptions at -125 for 1 unit (Bodog). It moved to -135 about 5 minutes after I bet it. Fair line is closer to 3.5 IMO. Before last week, he had been seeing fewer targets. Calvin Johnson is finally getting healthy, plus the Lions have gotten awfully conservative on offense recently. Arizona's pass defense is about average.

There are a handful of other props that I think are decent but not great, will investigate further but this week's card may be a small one for me.

[EWS87]

edit: moved to more appropriate thread

[silentbob]

One more:

Adrian Peterson over 1.5 pass receptions at +105 for 1 unit (Bodog). Certainly, the Vikings have been targeting him less in the passing game because he's such a stud carrying the ball. My numbers suggest this is slightly better than a 50/50 proposition, but I have two better reasons to bet. First, Green Bay's run defense is pretty good, so the Vikings will want to get ADP the ball in a position for him to make plays. The Vikings may be passing a lot anyway if they're behind. Also, Sidney Rice is out so the Vikings have no real receiving threat. They may target ADP more for this reason as well. Anyway, the positive juice doesn't hurt either.

There were several other props that the numbers told me to bet but I'm passing on for one reason or another.

Adrian Peterson +0.5 fantasy points vs. Brett Favre (Minnesota's pass defense is horrible, plus ADP has been too feast or famine)

Philip Rivers +8.5 fantasy points vs. Peyton Manning (Rivers is even more feast or famine)

Ben Roethlisberger over 235.5 passing yards (He's dinged up, plus the Steelers have had success running against the Browns and may want to play ball control to keep Anderson off the field)

There is one other prop I'm eyeing and may bet once the inactives for the late games are posted. Anyway, good luck to everyone.

ETA: Warrick Dunn over 58.5 rushing yards at -110 for 1 unit (Bodog). I had been leaning on this one anyway, because my numbers suggested a fair line in the 60s. Jerious Norwood is inactive, which means Dunn will probably have a carry total in the low 20s instead of the high teens. He would need to play quite badly not to reach 60 yards given that many touches.