NL 50: I'm lost with QQ vs. a LAG

Nick C · #1 07-01-2007, 08:05 AM

Villain is 51/35/2.6 over 190+ hands. He likes to raise junk preflop, especially if it's suited, although suitedness is not a necessity. He doesn't like folding to 3-bets, especially if they come from me (this suggests maybe I should have 3-bet him bigger, but I thought maybe I didn't want him to fold). He doesn't usually bet big postflop, and in fact he just calls with T8s versus a preflop 3-bettor when it catches top two on the flop, calls again on an ace turn, and checks it down when a three-flush second ace falls on the river, loses to my AJo [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img], and then writes "lucky" in the chatbox. As best I could tell, he was erratic postflop, although I never really saw him going nuts.

So here's the hand:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($89.25)
MP ($52.15)
CO ($50.75)
Button ($55.60)
Hero ($164.20)
BB ($50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $1.5, 3 folds, Hero raises to $4.75, 1 fold, UTG calls $3.25.

Flop: ($10) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $7, UTG calls $7.

Turn: ($24) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6.

River: ($36) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $20.5, Hero calls $20.50.

Final Pot: $77

Any better ideas?

whyzze · #2 07-01-2007, 08:09 AM

Fold here. he isn't calling, he is betting. He has a very average AF. You only beat a bluff. And his turn bet is not a bluff....i assure you.

monkover · #3 07-01-2007, 08:17 AM

I think you have to decide on the turn how you are going to play for the rest of the hand. Either you can decide to call him down or just fold. (reevaluating on the turn seems bad b/c villain is prob going to bet again anyways...)?! not too sure how true this statement is

I prob would have played it the same way as you did.

Do you think villain bluffs/valuebets worse hands on the river often enough to make you play +ev? i think that is the question here. do you think villain is capable of turning made hands with at least a little sd value into bluffs? usually this isn´t the case at microstakes. So imo we can eliminate a hand like 45 from his range.

So basically the question you have to answer here is the one i posted above:
Do you think villain bluffs/valuebets worse hands on the river often enough to make you play +ev?
this obv is very opponent dependent.

sorry that i can´t really help you here but imo it all depends on your read.

murmeltier21 · #4 07-01-2007, 08:17 AM

Pf: Raise it up to 6 since you are the sb and you want him to pay more for his position.

Flop is fine as played. Maybe make it 7.5, but not that big of a deal...

Turn: I check call his small bet.

River: I fold. That looks like exactly the bet he wants you to call with a hand like you have. I don't see you winning the hand often enough to make a call profitable.

monkover · #5 07-01-2007, 08:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold here. he isn't calling, he is betting. He has a very average AF. You only beat a bluff. And his turn bet is not a bluff....i assure you.

[/ QUOTE ]

why?! can you please explain you reasoning behind this? you prob have a better understanding of the hand than me...

murmeltier21 · #6 07-01-2007, 08:21 AM

The turn bet looks like 77-TT... But would he fire again on the river with a hand like that.

I would just fold the river

whyzze · #7 07-01-2007, 08:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold here. he isn't calling, he is betting. He has a very average AF. You only beat a bluff. And his turn bet is not a bluff....i assure you.

[/ QUOTE ]

why?! can you please explain you reasoning behind this? you prob have a better understanding of the hand than me...

[/ QUOTE ]

folding here would be the worst fold ever.

anyways, this can be described in one donk thought

"If I bet weak, he will think I have a weak hand"

even most donks understand when a bet is too small for someone to fold.

In retrospect, if he shoves the turn im probably calling.

Nick C · #8 07-01-2007, 08:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The turn bet looks like 77-TT...

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, he's (probably) calling the flop with any 2x, any 3x (both of these things are easily within his range), any Ax (obviously), any pair, and any two spades.

What he would bet when checked to, I wasn't so sure about . . .

He did claim to have folded a gutshot in a 3-way pot in a different hand where I flopped a set of 9's. I believed him, since the hand he mentioned that would have got there was so in character (75).

#9 07-01-2007, 08:42 AM

These spots always get me really pissed of. Sucks to be oop. I usualy just give up on the turn. It`s a real small bet I think your getting about 6 to 1, but if he has an ace or hit his flush we are only hopping for a Q on the river, or we might even be drawing dead to A5. It`s real hard to get into the head of one of these donks because they don`t play with any kind of logic. Just wait for a better spot and stack him .