NL 25 73o: I'm just curious . . .

[chanchuan]

Everyone keeps saying that the river's good, but what are we counting here for? I'm not sure but I don't believe villains w/o a 7 are calling this often enough, please explain.

You mean of course that he thinks he has a split here?

[Nick C]

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Everyone keeps saying that the river's good, but what are we counting here for? I'm not sure but I don't believe villains w/o a 7 are calling this often enough, please explain.

You mean of course that he thinks he has a split here?

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I can tell you my thinking, which starts with this: There's hardly any risk, because Villain will very rarely have me beat (the only hand he could have that wasn't a pure bluff on previous streets that beats mine is 8d7d).

If he's playing the board (as, from his perspective, I probably am), then my push is good (as opposed to a pot-sized bet) if I get a call from that as much as ~1/6 as often as I get a call from a pot-sized bet. And I thought Villain might have had a big hand on the turn that he'd have trouble letting go of, even though it got spoiled on the river.

Betting small with the hopes of getting Villain to posture and raise is another option, though (with the supplemental idea that Villain will almost surely at least call a small bet, whereas he'll often fold to a push and will probably sometimes fold to a pot-sized bet as well).

And, to be honest, the biggest reason for my river push was that I had called the turn with that play in mind (if I caught my miracle card). Possibly the turn call was just a mistake that I should have put behind me, but if I'm going to try to "prove" that that call was okay, then I need to make up a lot of money on the river once I catch my miracle suckout card.

[DemonOfTheFall]

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And, to be honest, the biggest reason for my river push was that I had called the turn with that play in mind (if I caught my miracle card). Possibly the turn call was just a mistake that I should have put behind me, but if I'm going to try to "prove" that that call was okay, then I need to make up a lot of money on the river once I catch my miracle suckout card.

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I think you will get paid off with a PSB 100% of the time and a slight overbet almost close to that if the villain has 2P or P+FD on the flop.

Is there not the consideration that a donkey maniac with such a low AF will simply fear a massive overbet from a relatively accomplished player. It's very possible he's still betting the turn weak with a naked flush draw and J/Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] type garbagey hand he limped with.

Obviously an Ax hand makes up a bigger part of his range given your reads but even the worst of players can understand playing the board facing what can only be a value push is susceptible.