PS 6.50- KK on a semi-scary flop

[KyleH186]

This flop + the action, makes me concerned about a set. In a SNG can I really fold this overpair here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1490)
MP3 (t1430)
CO (t1530)
Button (t1450)
Hero (t1510)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1460)
UTG+1 (t1630)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, K.
UTG calls t20, 1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t20, 1 fold</font>, MP3 calls t20, 2 folds</font>, Hero raises to t120</font>, 1 fold</font>, UTG calls t100, MP1 calls t100, MP3 calls t100.

Flop: (t500) 6, 5, 7 (4 players)</font>
Hero bets t300</font>, UTG folds, MP1 calls t300, MP3 raises to t700

[isukatpkr]

Although I like to think people at the $6.50 level are idiots, with this action I fold and hope to find a better spot. It's still the 1st level and you have 1100 chips left.

[KyleH186]

I really had trouble putting the villains on a range here. I mean anything from 55 66 77, to 99 or A7, or a flush draw.
Does KK beat enough of that range to 3 bet all in?

[TruFloridaGator]

This is a really easy shove in a 6.5. What about 99,88, maybe TT, lots of other draws. Shove.

[johnnyknish]

can i raise the question that someone limp called with suited connectors like 89 everyone seems to over look that....IMO it would either be a hand like that or a set especially with the mini raise. i think we could rule the MP! is most likely on a draw and is possible to call a 3 bet all in. i think i fold and fin a better spot because the board is too coordinated...or im just a nit one of the two lol

[stakrw]

I think the pfr was too small, 89 couldnt get in, if it would be bigger.pockets are always getting in w 3xBB, and w 3 callers, u could already be beat w a combodraw. I would shove here anyways [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[cban]

What do you put mp1/mp3 on that you are willing to get the rest of your chips in with? 45, 78, fd, 88-TT? I'm bad with math, but if they both call your push, I dont like putting your remaining 1100 in here. There are so few hands you are ahead of, and many times you just got wrecked by 2pr, strait, set. I think i fold.. im so tight early [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I would like to know if its a +ev push if you KNEW one had 88, and one had a flush draw though ( and were calling). Can anyone do that? I need to how learn to do that analysis... just for my own curiosity.

[cougar62]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a really easy shove in a 6.5. What about 99,88, maybe TT, lots of other draws. Shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah it's almost like the scariness of it might actually be a good thing, since this could very well be a case of everyone trying to scare each other [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Like Gator said you'll see overpairs worse than KK and flush and str8 draws a lot here (and of course you'll see sets and made str8's too, but I think that's less likely. In the 6.50s at a full table, you still have the donks that bluff way too much still in the game, I'd factor that in too.

[cougar62]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you put mp1/mp3 on that you are willing to get the rest of your chips in with? 45, 78, fd, 88-TT? I'm bad with math, but if they both call your push, I dont like putting your remaining 1100 in here. There are so few hands you are ahead of, and many times you just got wrecked by 2pr, strait, set. I think i fold.. im so tight early [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I would like to know if its a +ev push if you KNEW one had 88, and one had a flush draw though ( and were calling). Can anyone do that? I need to how learn to do that analysis... just for my own curiosity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Get pokerstove (google it, it's free), but in the meantime here you go:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

903 games 0.002 secs 451,500 games/sec

Board: 6h 5c 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.441% 34.22% 00.22% 309 2.00 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 24.585% 24.36% 00.22% 220 2.00 { 8c8d }
Hand 2: 40.975% 40.75% 00.22% 368 2.00 { AhQh }

So basically your chip equity is about 34%, IF the villians are actually holding exactly what you describe. Also, I gave the heart draw an overcard too, if he doesn't have that and has QJ hearts instead our equity jumps to 44%.

[cban]

So i would need 3 to 1 call approximately?