100NL Crappy turn spot.

Roger Mainfield · #1 11-19-2007, 11:30 AM

Villian is VitaminPor prob a 2p2'er and runs 20/15/3 over 1K+ hands. This turn sucks, I bet to protect from the draws, and cuz I can prob get a lot of values from AXhh. Fold to this small C/R?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (5 handed) Party Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($13.27)
UTG ($58.47)
MP ($168.87)
Hero ($123.31)
SB ($139.62)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($9) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, SB calls $7.

Turn: ($23) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, SB raises to $40

Propster · #2 11-19-2007, 01:43 PM

This looks a lot like Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] KJ is very probable too. It really depends on how aggro he usually is late in a hand. At NL100, I would say you are beat here most of the time and if you're not, you could very well be on the river with any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or if he makes 2 pairs with his Ax.

I say wait for a better spot...and no, it's not an easy fold...heh

shandyboy · #3 11-19-2007, 01:52 PM

The worst possible card just hit, against a solid villain, i fold this to the turn c/r.

balzak520 · #4 11-19-2007, 02:11 PM

I fold. You're behind a good deal of his c/r'ing hands. Also, with that many hands on him, do you have any idea what his SB calling range is?

chiTown22 · #5 11-19-2007, 02:18 PM

This is an odd raise. What hand do you put the guy on? If he is a solid regular as you said, KJ does not flat call in the SB, nor does AX or 22.

Your turn bet size is weak, so this could be an attack on that precieved weakness. I would call and re-evaluate on the turn. I just could not justify a fold for this amount with a complete inability to put the guy on a hand.

When in doubt I call, but that is my playing style.

early325 · #6 11-19-2007, 02:19 PM

i think a lot of regs call KJs pf oop..

napkins · #7 11-19-2007, 02:28 PM

I think you're asking the wrong question here. Rather than figuring out this decision you should have planned it out before you bet.

What range is villain on here? Villain most likely reraises QQ/TT/AQ preflop here, so if you rule these out then you're primarily putting him on a draw, 22, an occasional AT or trash. You should bet, shove to his C/R if draws make up the vast percentage of his range.

Now on the other hand, let's say you think it's reasonable that villain could have AQ, KJ, TT as well as his draws. Also, his stats indicate that he isn't calling many SC types of hands out of the SB pf. Now it looks your equity against his supposed range is not that great even though you have a fair hand. In fact it's really looking like a WA/WB type. So I'd look to get a cheap showdown and call most rivers.

Now, you might say by checking you gave draws a free card. While true, it still not enough reason to bet because in this instance his range just doesn't include enough draw type hands. Also, if a blank hits you can induce villain to put money in on a bluff when he misses.

pr0crast · #8 11-19-2007, 03:16 PM

Easy fold not only because of KJ, but because there are plenty of other very probable two pair combos that beat you. AND if he doesn't have one of those, he's got a fat draw with a ton of equity. Just let it go.