*** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

[alwardc4]

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I'm also anxious to see the Clev @ Pitt line. If it's > 1TD, I may bet it very heavily.



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I saw it at +10 last week so I jumped on it. I am with you, it shouldn't be much more than a TD. The Brownies still are getting undervalued.

[kyro]

Wash and GB lines look right at first glance. I like NO -12 and Car -4.5

[theclock]

I like Carolina over Atlanta.

It'll be 3 losses in a row if Car lose here. They won by a TD earlier in the year at ATL. Can't see why they can't do it again even if it is Delhomme less.

[Rustjive]

I'm in for 2u on NO -12 already, and now that the line is moving in my favor I may add to it. Rams' Sagarin ratings are just unreal. Yeah, yeah, the Saints don't have great ratings either, but 14.90 v 5.23 pure points, 20.69 v 5.22 ELO chess, 17.98 v 5.22 ratings with HFA, not to mention totally different 1st quarter season/2nd quarter season splits for the Saints makes it a no contest.

[Jazzy3113]

I dont think loading up on a game with such a large spread is very wise. St. Louis did not look completely horrendus against the browns two weeks ago. Bulger and Jackson are back right?

I think the Pitt Line is going to tumble down so If you like the browns hop on now. Its dropped 1/2 pt for me already.

[kyro]

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I dont think loading up on a game with such a large spread is very wise. St. Louis did not look completely horrendus against the browns two weeks ago. Bulger and Jackson are back right?

I think the Pitt Line is going to tumble down so If you like the browns hop on now. Its dropped 1/2 pt for me already.

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They were at home, and NO has actually looked like the Saints of yesteryear the past couple of weeks.

[Rustjive]

CLE @ PIT -10

Wouldn't touch this with a 10 foot pole, to be honest.

[Jazzy3113]

I feel the same way about the Cincy/Ravens game and phi/wash game. I feel like when the cappers arnt sure they just make the home team -3.

[kyro]

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CLE @ PIT -10

Wouldn't touch this with a 10 foot pole, to be honest.

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I actually like Pitt here. Pitt is 4-0 at home winning by an average margin of 24 points.

26-3 v Buffalo
37-16 v SF
21-0 v Seattle
38-7 v Baltimore

They already trounced Cleveland once this year IN Cleveland 34-7. I have no doubt that Cleveland is much improved, but this Pittsburgh team is underrated by many. DVOA has Pitt by 8 right now, but I expect that to go up to 9 once this Week's numbers come out. MOV has Pitt by 15.5

Pitt is leading the league in defensive passing ypg and passing ypa, which is Cleveland's strength. I expect Cleveland to come down to Earth a bit, against a very scary team.

[kyro]

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3 units on BUF -3 even

Miami is at the point where their home-field advantage is nearly worthless. Even if you give them 3 points for playing at home, which is very generous, that means Buffalo is only a 6-pt fave on a neutral field? Plus we're getting this with no juice? Sign me up.


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Instead of Buf -3, I would take a look at U40.5

Buffalo has had 3 games hit a total of over 40.5. They were against the Pats, the Cowboys and the Bengals, all high-powered offenses. The Dolphins give up a lot of points, but they have played against some very good offenses as well, and I don't think Miami will score nearly enough to hit 40.