1/2 Live - Humor my AA please

[Onaflag]

Live on the LV strip. Villain stumbles in with beer in hand and buys in for max $300. Over the next 30+ minutes he doesn't seem so "stumbly" and never drinks from the beer. Very tight. Hasn't been involved in any hands. He seems to be folding to pressure with little invested in any pot.

Hero has $185. Villian covers.

Hero in MP raises A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to $12 (standard).
Folds to button who calls. Blinds fold. Pot = $27

Flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero bets $25, Villain calls. Pot = $77

Turn comes 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Hero bets $55. Villain calls.

River comes 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

I have about $100 behind. Pot = $187.

1) If I lead out, for how much?

2) If I check, how big of a bet do I call?

I assume check/fold, bet/fold are two lines not to be taken here.

Onaflag...........

[tarheeljks]

you have < 1/2 psb left, so you might as well push.

[HesseJam]

I'd go check/call (if I am capable picking up "vibes").

This way you will pick up river bluffs.

[Johnes Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd go check/call (if I am capable picking up "vibes").

This way you will pick up river bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ]



there are no draws he could have missed and he is not floating until river just to bluff at it when the pot is bigger than hero's stack

I'm not super happy about this but best thing to do is just shove b/c he's not likely to v-bet a K here, but he may call

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd go check/call (if I am capable picking up "vibes").

This way you will pick up river bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ]
There were no draws on the flop, so villain cannot bluff a missed draw here.

With the stack sizes the only real move is to shove and hope villain calls with KQ or whatever.

[HesseJam]

Yeah, I just thought KQ could be a possibility. What else?

I don't know, I'm not really sold yet on a shove here. I villain cannot bluff, why don't we just check to him? If he goes all-in we could just fold.

[Johnes Benjamin]

LOL, ever hear of a collective subconscious??

Hesse, you have a point but the only hands I'm really worried about are 88 and 22 so I think we lose value by checking, esp. given the fact that if he's called to river and nothing scary has come so he will pretty much have to call <1/2 pot bet.

[HesseJam]

Well, I don't think value betting is the strong part of my game anyways.

[Klompy]

[ QUOTE ]
you have < 1/2 psb left, so you might as well push.

[/ QUOTE ]

[MTBlue]

I get it and expect to see a king here alot, which he checks back if you check. I mean you could conceivably lose the hand to set or a backdoor flush draws but not more than 15-20% of the time.

If you decide to check you have to call but the % become more like set back door flush 70% of the time. King 30%.