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  #11  
Old 06-11-2007, 11:14 PM
El_Hombre_Grande El_Hombre_Grande is offline
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Default Re: Prove Poker is a Skill Game?

[ QUOTE ]
i remember sklansky making a couple posts pointing out that in poker, if you want to lose, you can do so very quickly. that alone suggests a non-trivial level of skill is involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is actually the best proof that poker is a game of skill, not chance. In a game of chance, you cannot lose deliberately. Coinflipping, the lotto, roulette.... if you play the game, you could never "throw' a game because you cannot "play" bad. If its heads, you win. In poker, you could easily deliberately lose, and in a tournament you could deliberately go busto in the space of a few hands if you were throwing the game.

Thus if you can play bad you must be able to play well.
But then again all poker players know this; the proof is for those who have never played the game or are so ignorant of whats happening at the table that it all appears random.
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  #12  
Old 06-12-2007, 01:22 AM
filsteal filsteal is offline
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Default Re: Prove Poker is a Skill Game?

So there are two ways you could do this.

One way is the empirical way. Use tournament/cash game results and show that certain players outperform the average at a statistically significant level.

The other way is the theoretical way. Take a simplified version of poker, do a bunch of game theory calculations, and demonstrate that certain strategies win more money than others. Then argue that if simpler poker variations are skill games, then more complex (i.e., "real") versions must also be skill games. (FWIW, this has already been done, most notably by Chen and Ankenmann in Mathematics of Poker.)
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  #13  
Old 06-12-2007, 03:41 AM
Poker Plan Poker Plan is offline
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Default Re: Prove Poker is a Skill Game?

It seems pretty obvious that skill is involved. You have a number of decisions to make during a hand. Each decision will result in a different amount of long-term expected value. Some positive, some negaive and an infinite range in between. How much expected value you collect is down to you to decide.

Just work through a few hands yourself and do the math. Change the decisions and see how the EV works out. That in itself "proves" you (the player) have control over long term return.

The thing is: Most of us know the basic principle of how skill is involved. We know about the concept of EV, etc. BUT..... Putting it into consistent practice, EVERY decision, EVERY hand is a very, very difficult thing to do. So our ego's try and "cheer us up" by coming up with every excuse under the sun as to why we can't do it.
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  #14  
Old 06-12-2007, 04:57 AM
Sciolist Sciolist is offline
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Default Re: Prove Poker is a Skill Game?

[ QUOTE ]
i remember sklansky making a couple posts pointing out that in poker, if you want to lose, you can do so very quickly. that alone suggests a non-trivial level of skill is involved.

[/ QUOTE ]
You can purposely lose more at blackjack too, but luck still predominates.
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  #15  
Old 06-12-2007, 04:58 AM
Sciolist Sciolist is offline
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Default Re: Prove Poker is a Skill Game?

[ QUOTE ]
sciolist, i suggest you go read "fooled by randomness" by nassim taleb.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have - infact, I'm reading the Black Swan at the moment. Good recommendation, but I already know it thanks :]
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  #16  
Old 06-12-2007, 05:00 AM
Sciolist Sciolist is offline
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Default Re: Prove Poker is a Skill Game?

[ QUOTE ]
It seems pretty obvious that skill is involved. You have a number of decisions to make during a hand. Each decision will result in a different amount of long-term expected value. Some positive, some negaive and an infinite range in between. How much expected value you collect is down to you to decide.

Just work through a few hands yourself and do the math. Change the decisions and see how the EV works out. That in itself "proves" you (the player) have control over long term return.

The thing is: Most of us know the basic principle of how skill is involved. We know about the concept of EV, etc. BUT..... Putting it into consistent practice, EVERY decision, EVERY hand is a very, very difficult thing to do. So our ego's try and "cheer us up" by coming up with every excuse under the sun as to why we can't do it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't get me wrong, I am perfectly aware that poker is a game of skill in the long term. What I'm not aware of is anyone with some hard data to back that up asides from anecdotal ("I have a 500k hand database that shows xyz", when it MIGHT only show that that person is unusually lucky). I am using the word "Prove" in the mathematical sense.
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  #17  
Old 06-12-2007, 05:42 AM
Pancho Pancho is offline
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Default Re: Prove Poker is a Skill Game?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sciolist, i suggest you go read "fooled by randomness" by nassim taleb.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have - infact, I'm reading the Black Swan at the moment. Good recommendation, but I already know it thanks :]

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you give a brief summary of what the 2 books are about, as they both sound interesting.
Thx

And BTW: i think the question here should not be if poker is a skill game at all, it'S obvious that it is.
But it should be, if there is enough skill involved, that you can profit from it long term, without only belonging to the best 5% or so. (for example in limit poker i find the margin of 2bb/100 for a good winning player so marginal, that i don't know how good you have to be to achieve that)
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  #18  
Old 06-12-2007, 07:45 AM
Sciolist Sciolist is offline
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Default Re: Prove Poker is a Skill Game?

There are several laws in various countries and states that do not differentiate poker from roulette, but do differentiate chess from roulette. Clearly all three games have a degree of luck involved (white has the edge in chess), but in some the degree is a lot higher than others. Therefore, being able to show that the game is predominantly skill is important.

Those two books:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/s/ref=nb_ss_w_h_...ds=nassim+taleb
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  #19  
Old 06-12-2007, 05:16 PM
UtzChips UtzChips is offline
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Default Re: Prove Poker is a Skill Game?

This is an argument that has been going on for as long as I've played poker, and I'm 53.

Some define a poker a game of chance (many lawmakers) because you can play your hand perfectly and still lose because of the luck of the draw.

Others say skill wins in the long run, as the "luck of the draw" evens out and the one who plays their cards better than their opponent wins over time.

The lawmakers agree, but state that is not how they define a game of chance. A game of chance is where the outcome cannot be controlled totally by the players actions.

It's become a pretty boring subject. I use to play a lot of chess and never met a serious student of the game of chess, who also a student of poker, that would even begin to consider poker a game of skill, despite the fact that the most skillful player wins in the long run.

When you match the two top Grandmasters of chess for the World Championship, they have to play 21 games to determine the winner. Each game lasts on avg about 3 hrs. That's 63 hrs.

A top poker player would laugh at the thought of playing 63 hrs against 9 other top rated players to determine who is the best in the world.

Lou Krieger says it takes 4000 hrs of live play before you can rightly say you're a winning player. A person who works 8 hrs a day, 5 days a week, 52 weeks a year, only works 2080 hours.

You can bet it's a game of chance, that is won in long run by those who minimize the luck and outplay their opponents.
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  #20  
Old 06-12-2007, 05:40 PM
jogsxyz jogsxyz is offline
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Default Re: Prove Poker is a Skill Game?

What difference does it make? Skill or chance? It's called gambling. The state should allow gambling and regulate it.

It's not possible to prove poker is skill to a legislator who doesn't understand math. And not necessary to one who does.
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