$200 - Right Line For Value?

[Sciolist]

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $305.70
<font color="black">Hero (BB): $314.85</font>
UTG: $295.84
CO: $582.60
BTN: $374.80

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG calls $2, CO folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $9</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $32</font>, UTG calls $30, BTN calls $23

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($97) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $66</font>, UTG folds, BTN calls $66

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($229) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($229) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks?

Pot Size: $229 ($2 Rake)

So I got abused in chat by this (by a moron though, so it's all good). My thinking was that if I check the turn and river, he might bet with his JJ or QQ or AQ or KQ or whatever, whilst if I bet either of them, he's folding. Oh, and UTG is a complete drooler: 80/10/0, dropped $400 in past hour, my proudest buddy list addition for the day.

[jk3a]

Love it, as long as you c/r if he bets. Not many hands can call flop+turn here.

[Unknown Soldier]

he may vb a K here, doubt he will vb any of 88+ I like btting river. checking turn is fine

[willw9]

Bet river, he calls with more than he bets.

[Sciolist]

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he may vb a K here, doubt he will vb any of 88+ I like btting river. checking turn is fine

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But would he call a river bet with KQ if he wouldn't bet it himself? I suppose he knows he can't be called by a better hand, but I'm pretty sure that most people don't think that hard at $200 NL

[carnivalhobo]

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he may vb a K here, doubt he will vb any of 88+ I like btting river. checking turn is fine

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But would he call a river bet with KQ if he wouldn't bet it himself? I suppose he knows he can't be called by a better hand, but I'm pretty sure that most people don't think that hard at $200 NL

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most people call thinner than they vb, especially bad people. Im betting 2 streets here.

[Michaelson]

It would help if you gave a read on villain.

Typically, this line will induce a bet from most 7s (duh), aces, and perhaps air very occasionally. From his flop call, though, it looks much more likely that you're up against 99-QQ or a pair of kings, and most villains won't even contemplate turning these hands into a bluff on that board, IMO.

The turn check I think is good, let him have a crack at the pot once the scare card comes if he chooses. Once he declines to do so, though, I think you have to bet. You'll get called from a pair of kings often enough that I think it's higher ev than checking.

[Jay Riall]

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Bet river, he calls with more than he bets.

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