Stars Million: Ugly spot with TPTK

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
so you shove 99 77 here all day stevepa, I figure most good players call and raise any turn, maybe I'm missing something, it seems you lose value by pushing 99 or 77 here?

[/ QUOTE ]

lose value from what? No one folds AK/AQ here.

[stevepa]

kramer, of course you never fold in a bazillion year against an unknown in this tournament. This is not an unknown, this is a good, tight player. We beat next to nothing (ok we're flipping occasionally).

[mlagoo]

i wish i knew how to work pokerstove better, because i'd like to see what our odds are against sets and big draws... because we're getting fairly decent odds here.

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
i wish i knew how to work pokerstove better, because i'd like to see what our odds are against sets and big draws... because we're getting fairly decent odds here.

[/ QUOTE ]

you have to really discount a lot of the draws though, he's not calling pf with JTs or QJs or anything like that

[NoahSD]

Wrote up this whole long response, but I think I'm better off just summing it up: if you think he calls preflop with JTs, then call the flop. Otherwise, fold. If you're not sure, call.

[DDBeast]

I don't see what we're beating. There's no hand he cold calls an utg raiser with that is on a draw. This leaves. AK/AA/99/(maybe 77), AQ is possible but very unlikely. How is this an instacall?

[Eagles]

I need a better read than a "known solid player" to fold.

[TheNewf]

[ QUOTE ]
Wrote up this whole long response, but I think I'm better off just summing it up: if you think he calls preflop with JTs, then call the flop. Otherwise, fold. If you're not sure, call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This really doesn't make sense, adding exactly one possible combination to his range that I'm 55:45 against doesn't swing this from a fold to a call. His PT stats are 12/9 over a few hundred hands fwiw. It is pretty unlikely he's calling with a suited connector here preflop. It's pretty unlikely he's overplaying AQ this badly. That doesn't leave much else. Against a very generously wide range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.237% 17.70% 18.54% 2803 2937.00 { AhKs }
Hand 1: 63.763% 45.22% 18.54% 7163 2937.00 { 99, 77, AQs+, JdTd, 8d7d, AKo }

Put in a couple combo draws and AQs to represent a dicounted possibility that maybe he ever has that hand. And it's still a fold, as I need 37.5% equity to breakeven. I feel I'm prboably in even worse shape against his actual range though. Against a random donk I'd of course instacall. Thoughts?

[DDBeast]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wrote up this whole long response, but I think I'm better off just summing it up: if you think he calls preflop with JTs, then call the flop. Otherwise, fold. If you're not sure, call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This really doesn't make sense, adding exactly one possible combination to his range that I'm 55:45 against doesn't swing this from a fold to a call. His PT stats are 12/9 over a few hundred hands fwiw. It is pretty unlikely he's calling with a suited connector here preflop. It's pretty unlikely he's overplaying AQ this badly. That doesn't leave much else. Against a very generously wide range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.237% 17.70% 18.54% 2803 2937.00 { AhKs }
Hand 1: 63.763% 45.22% 18.54% 7163 2937.00 { 99, 77, AQs+, JdTd, 8d7d, AKo }

Put in a couple combo draws and AQs to represent a dicounted possibility that maybe he ever has that hand. And it's still a fold, as I need 37.5% equity to breakeven. I feel I'm prboably in even worse shape against his actual range though. Against a random donk I'd of course instacall. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be very surprised if his range was this wide which is why it's definitely a fold.

[beenben]

w/o reading other replies - fold. there's a lot of poker left to play. he could have A9o, 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], sets all of which beat you or have a ton of outs to beat you. no need to be married to TPTK at this stage.