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#11
09-22-2007, 04:10 PM
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Re: 25NL: AA, monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
LC your range is too small. Villains play basically any Ahx,Khx,Qhx the same on these flops and they are basically coin flipping/slight favorite against us if they picked up a pair on the flop also to go with their heart. I think chargers line is fine. We should open shove the turn though. You aren't blindly committed because more than 1/3 of your stack is in the middle. If the 4th heart comes, we are probably drawing dead and can c/f IMO. [/ QUOTE ] Mike, I think you and Foal are probably correct about the range, so I don't mind conceding that villain here could (and did) have a wider range than I used. I tried opening it up some in PokerStove but it won't let me select one card to be a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] while leaving the other random to indicate villain is drawing, and I don't believe outside of KK, QQ, that we are ever really being looked up here without at least one [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Anyhow, we are probably a slight favorite now by adding in some K/QhX cards, but I can't make PokerStove work to demonstrate that. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] PokerStove lessons, anyone? For me it really comes down to this. We are probably no more than a slight favorite here in most cases. Villain's bet suggested he knew what he was doing and without any other reads I'd put some amount of credibility in that. It's true that here his bet was really mostly a bluff but I don't think that's typically the case with this sort of raise. Also, we have no redraws to the flush which really stinks on this board! As for a "commitment threshold", it's actually a bit worse than you noted. Hero wasn't full at the start of this hand, so villain's bet would be calling off just over 1/2 rather than 1/3 of our stack. ICK...I don't like putting more than 1/2 in with any possibility of folding. Better to just stick it all in on the flop IMO than waiting for the turn. Just so you know, I don't hate a push, and I suspect many would shove without giving it much more thought. However, I personally would give villain credit when he makes a reasonable-looking raise on a monotone board when I have no redraws. I may be wiping tears from my cheeks, but I'm pretty sure I'd be simultaneously clicking the fold button. LC Oh, and edited to say that with the note/read I'd now have on villain I wouldn't be folding in the future! 
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#12
09-22-2007, 04:52 PM
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Re: 25NL: AA, monotone flop
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Chargers, What does this gain us? We are pot committing ourselves by calling the flop there. [/ QUOTE ] Simple, if he has a pair+draw and misses on the turn our equity goes way up and his down in addition we can preserve the rest of our stack if a heart comes on the turn.
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#13
09-22-2007, 05:14 PM
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Re: 25NL: AA, monotone flop
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[ QUOTE ] Chargers, What does this gain us? We are pot committing ourselves by calling the flop there. [/ QUOTE ] Simple, if he has a pair+draw and misses on the turn our equity goes way up and his down in addition we can preserve the rest of our stack if a heart comes on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] and what if he's not on a draw and holds AsQ KsQ and thinks we are on a draw any heart on the turn might scare him of costing us lots of equity.
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