#1
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Sunday Million FT bubble hand
10 left in the Stars Million. This is my friends hand and I wasn't watching very closely but he said the villian "had standard raised maybe 3 or 4 times since we had been 10 handed (which wasn't very long), and this was the first time he open shoved."
Some background on my friend: Independently wealthy and has absolutely zero interest in moving up the pay ladder. Is only playing for 1st. (Just mentioning this b/c the million pay structure is soo top heavy) If this is a fold, what hands do we call with? PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t250000 (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com Button (t7070329) Hero (t3861967) BB (t2491850) UTG (t6339636) MP (t6624134) Preflop: Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t7045329</font>, |
#2
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Re: Sunday Million FT bubble hand
if he's playing to win it's a call I think it's +Cev but -$EV.
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#3
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Re: Sunday Million FT bubble hand
What kind of range do you give him? Based on what i've seen, this over bet is probably 77-JJ, AJs+, KQs, AQo+, maybe KQo.
Given that we have about 40% equity. Definitely think we can find a better spot than this. Vs this shoving range, 88 has 48% equity and 99 has 53% equity. So that would be my calling range for paired hands. For unpaired hands KQs has 41% equity, which is definitely a fold, AQs has 50.5% equity. So I am profitably calling with 99+, AQo+. |
#4
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Re: Sunday Million FT bubble hand
If this is the first time he shoved but other times he standard raised, this makes me think a scared hand that wants no callers (obv right?) but what are those hands...I would think its quite likely a pocket pair under jj...I find this an easy fold, jmho. I geuss there is a chance he has 22-55, but I hate to call and see 88, thats just such a weak hand to be dominated by.
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#5
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Re: Sunday Million FT bubble hand
take out 1010-aa from villians range, unless you have some reason to include, calculate 66's equity against that range.I'd have a hard time imagaining that 66 does not have 50% equity, w/ the blinds antes, u can even make do w/ a slightly smaller number than 50%. I'm calling against most opponents.
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#6
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Re: Sunday Million FT bubble hand
ari hit it perfectly, and i'd go so far as to take out 99 and AK too. definately seems like a nobrainer call to me...
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#7
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Re: Sunday Million FT bubble hand
I defff don't take AK out of his range. but yah I agree it's 22-99 random crap overcards a lot here. but, still pretty sure it's not +$EV.
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#8
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Re: Sunday Million FT bubble hand
I'm actually ok with waiting for a better spot here. I'd rather start pushing steals than at best flipping here.
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#9
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Re: Sunday Million FT bubble hand
if he wins he'll cover the table for the rest of the ft bubble w/ an image that says he doesn't give a [censored]. given description of your friend i think call by a decent margin.
as for range AK is in there and only 77-99, occasionally TT of bigger pairs; with some smaller pairs and some broadway |
#10
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Re: Sunday Million FT bubble hand
[ QUOTE ]
if he's playing to win it's a call I think it's +Cev but -$EV. [/ QUOTE ] QFT. So basically a really easy fold unless you like burning money. |
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