Implied Odds Question - Flush Draw

Onaflag · #1 12-03-2006, 08:05 PM

I think I played this hand badly.

The flop bet/call raise was probably good. Since there was no raise PF and villain is in the blind, I can't narrow his range, but lots of big cards point to pairs and such. I figured I'd be good if I hit the flush.

So, I don't hit on the turn but not ready to give up. Here's where the question begins. Getting about 3.5 to 1 immediately, I figure I have plenty of implied odds to continue.

Then when I hit on the river, I realize I'm not prepared to commit a large portion of my stack and chicken out of betting going instead for check/call. Just then I thought, WTF was I thinking about implied odds for if I wasn't planning to go after them?

How badly did I botch this hand and what should my thought process have been on the FT&R?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

CO ($50)
Button ($35.95)
Hero ($42.40)
BB ($65.25)
UTG ($48.50)
MP1 ($39.50)
MP2 ($57.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets $1.5, BB raises to $3, UTG folds, CO folds, Hero calls $1.50.

Turn: ($8) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $3, Hero calls $3.

River: ($14) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $5, Hero calls $5.

Final Pot: $24

Onaflag..........

Abramovic · #2 12-03-2006, 08:13 PM

As you say, if you werent willing to make use of your implied odds you shouldnt have stayed in the hand. I cant understand why you didnt? This would be a losing play in the long run I think if you dont charge him extra on the river. As hes bet $5 on the river it makes it near a break even play (maybe profitable, I cant be bothered to work it out), but you can't rely on the opponent betting when you hit your hand. Sklanksy's new no limit book focusses on this sort of thing quite a lot.

DJSHAD0W · #3 12-03-2006, 08:36 PM

I think Villain played this hand way wierd/ bad... assuming you read was right.
I would prefer check / call the flop since a lot of hands will have hit.... and would reraise you (more than min raise usually)
Turns call is good I think (right price and you will get paid of some very often if you hit with all the highcards)
River should be reraised to around 12-14 or there about IMHO
if he pushes you can always reevaluate (and prolly call anyway)

Pokey · #4 12-04-2006, 01:33 AM

Lately I've been experimenting with a new line here. It scares the bejeezus out of your opponent and wins quite a bit of money unless he's got an absolute monster.

On the flop, three-bet to $13. Obviously you call if villain four-bets all-in and you five-bet all-in if villain makes a sissy raise.

Otherwise, open-push ANY TURN CARD.

Villain doesn't have KK or QQ or he would have raised preflop. The same could easily apply to KQ. It's possible villain has 88, K8, or Q8, and if so, that's the way it goes. Any other hand and villain is trembling. The three-bet for less than all-in is a scary bet, and then the turn pot-sized open push is just terrifying. Your opponent will have to walk away with any smallish hand. Besides, almost a quarter of the time you'll be pushing a flush, and even if you're not you'll be hitting a flush on the river almost a quarter of the time.

NOTE: I wouldn't try this under $25NL, and I think it's an iffy play at $25NL, but at $50NL and up I think it's going to be reasonably effective. My preferred play is a three-bet all-in on the flop, but the pot is just too small to justify that play in this situation, so you have to make a two-street push play. The benefit of spreading your push over two streets is that villain will sometimes (not infrequently) call the flop three-bet and then fold to the turn push: it's like they don't believe you when you three-bet the flop, but when you push they realize it's over and they walk away. Either that or they're simply incapable of raising and folding on the same street, but by the turn it's obvious even to them that they're dead in the water.

Shoot59 · #5 12-04-2006, 03:55 AM

Pokey,

I think I would like your line a lot more if you had more outs:
1) Nut Flush Draw
2) FD plus overcards
3) FD plus gutshot
4) FD plus pair

How has this line been going so far for you?

as played, OP should either lead river for ~10, or C/R for ~15

Sir Winalot · #6 12-04-2006, 04:05 AM

Wtf is river?! You did notice that you hit your flush? I'd lead this for 10ish. As played, easy c/r to 15-20.

Pokey · #7 12-04-2006, 11:47 AM

Let's assume we're behind. When that's the case, we've got outs, but how many will be hard to estimate. The only true killer hand would be A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but that's definitely a preflop raise, so I'm going to call it an average of eight outs. (Nine clubs plus one more out for the backdoor straight draw, discounted ever-so-slightly based on the very rare chance of a better club draw or villain's possible redraws.) With eight outs, you're about 31.4% to win by the river, so this play does not hold up on equity alone. Now, we need to estimate our folding equity. While this tends to be more art than science, let's make one (overly) simplifying assumption: the odds that villain folds the flop 3-bet are the same as the odds that he folds the turn push. Personally, I think the odds of folding to the turn push are much higher than the odds of folding to the flop 3-bet, but for the sake of argument, let's leave it this way. If we call "F" the probability that villain folds somewhere in the hand, then our EV for this play will be:

EV = (0.5*F)*(+$6.50) + (0.5*F)*(+$28) + (1-F)*(0.314*(+$45.90) + 0.686*(-$40.40))

If we solve this equation for F, we find that in order for this play to be at least break-even, villain must fold at least 43.5% of the time. Now, that's a high number, I will admit, but villain's line does not look strong yet, and our line is going to be ultra-scary. Just be sure you take the same line with your flopped monsters (top two, sets, etc.) and you'll wind up making more money from both types of hands.

As to how this has worked for me so far, I haven't really had enough experience with it to say definitively yet. Also, the effectiveness of this line at my levels may differ significantly from the effectiveness of this line at yours, so your mileage may vary.

Shoot59 · #8 12-04-2006, 05:45 PM

Nice, I may have to experiment with it with the right draw vs the right villain.

Onaflag · #9 12-04-2006, 06:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Nice, I may have to experiment with it with the right draw vs the right villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm flattered that my ignorance inspired another nice Pokey reply. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Onaflag...........

SirNeb · #10 12-04-2006, 07:25 PM

interesting line, pokey, definitely the biggest factor is the fold equity. Also I'm sure this will work for TAG much better than LAG. Since TAG have more credibility.

Okay, we kind of derailed this post. As far as implied odds for the hand, I definitely would not call the turn bet. You already used your implied odds for the flop. So in a sense, you are oweing money from the odd from the flop, now to justify a call on the turn, you must "owe" more money to your odds. The biggest problem here is that even if you do hit your flush, you can't bet big on the river because you aren't sure you got the nuts. Maybe your opponent is on a ace high flush draw also, now you just cost yourself a TON. Therefore, to even call the flop, you didn't have the right implied odds. It might be okay to call it for -EV for the purpose of not making a fool out of yourself for betting, but the turn call is just asking for a leak.

Even with ace high flush draw, you don't necessarily want to draw for it every time. They are just very good semi-bluff opportunity but without the implied odd(amount of action villian is willing to give you) to draw, it's not worth it.