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#31
06-04-2007, 07:17 AM
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Re: 25/50 TPTK vs tay
[ QUOTE ]
what, if anything then, SHOULD we be 3betting this flop? I am guessing the "correct" answer is "nothing," but I don't think that's right. FWIW, people try to 3bet AK/AQ/AJ out of frustration alot. If we decided to bluff, is it better to 3bet or call the c/r and fire on the turn if able? (Or make a move over a turn bet, which seems really, really crazy?) [/ QUOTE ] You've got position, why do you need to 3-bet? To charge his pair draw? You can put in more money on later streets if you choose to, to the point of getting it allin by the river with hot-hot pot-pot action. 3-bet to provoke a 4-bet bluff, I guess, but villain isn't Grimmy. 
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#33
06-04-2007, 08:11 AM
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Re: 25/50 TPTK vs tay
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] what, if anything then, SHOULD we be 3betting this flop? I am guessing the "correct" answer is "nothing," but I don't think that's right. FWIW, people try to 3bet AK/AQ/AJ out of frustration alot. If we decided to bluff, is it better to 3bet or call the c/r and fire on the turn if able? (Or make a move over a turn bet, which seems really, really crazy?) [/ QUOTE ] You've got position, why do you need to 3-bet? To charge his pair draw? You can put in more money on later streets if you choose to, to the point of getting it allin by the river with hot-hot pot-pot action. 3-bet to provoke a 4-bet bluff, I guess, but villain isn't Grimmy. [/ QUOTE ] well, what im driving towards, is... if villain checkraise bluffs here, with air or whatever, and they'll fire on a turn, clearly we maximize ev with anything capable of beating a bluff (even say 88, as that is near = AT imo) by call/call. 3betting to protect vs a pair draw is fairly silly, esp. as it essentially turns your hand into one that is not going to showdown,. but with that same token, if we run a bluff, it has to be on the flop w/ AK or 56 or whatever, bc any bluff (or marginal hand they c/r, like an underpair) needs to be taken out of the lead. yeah, if you 3bet to provoke a 4bet, sure. if villain doesnt have a bluff v often at all, i could see 3betting trips here to just put the money in, but thats somewhat irrelevant.
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#35
06-04-2007, 08:53 AM
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Re: 25/50 TPTK vs tay
Do you think he will fire the river with either JJ/QQ or a bluff? If it seems like the answer to both is no well I call the turn and fold to a river shove.
Unless I hit an ace or a T (duh).
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#36
06-04-2007, 09:42 AM
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Re: 25/50 TPTK vs tay
the only reason i would ever 3-bet this flop would be to induce a 4-bet bluff
but we dont have the history/meta to do that saying he'll bluff optimally if i call is ridiculous, i can easily have 4x, TT-AA, float with Kx, etc
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#37
06-04-2007, 10:05 AM
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Re: 25/50 TPTK vs tay
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] imo if we are beat on flop it's more likely to be AA and not 4x. [/ QUOTE ] agree, JJ+ seems quite likely [/ QUOTE ] agree w this can i move him off JJ-QQ with a shove? [/ QUOTE ] Uhhh I wouldnt try that ever
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#38
06-04-2007, 11:12 AM
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Re: 25/50 TPTK vs tay
He obv. can be FOS here, but given pf, his range should be reasonably tight. Given that he's likely never folding JJ-QQ with these stack sizes, I really can't see anything but folding.
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#39
06-04-2007, 02:21 PM
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Re: 25/50 TPTK vs tay
On the 3 bet topic. We do have to be 3 betting made hands to offset the times we bluff, just A10 isn't one of them. The reason is that it will never get called by a worse hand. Do you really think taylor, oop, is going to put in 3 bets with a worse hand than A10 on the flop 100 bb deep? Taylor plays pretty tight oop compared to the standard aggro monkeys 6 months ago, which may makes the turn a tough decision. The problem is that A10 is pretty much the best hand we are going to flat call with to a check raise (maybe JJ but with your image I would be raising that probably). So if we are folding to the turn bet with one of the higher hands in our range, calling on the flop becomes a leak. I think we have to look him up here at least in the first few thousand hands you play him.
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#40
06-04-2007, 02:49 PM
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Re: 25/50 TPTK vs tay
I play in these games a ton and the only player I know who consistently gets their $ in with TPTK and have it be good is CTS. I have no idea how he does it, but he is felting A10 on this board nearly always. In this spot tho, I fold to the turn bet, or call turn and fold river. I like either of those lines better than turning your hand into a bluff.
As an aside, I don't think tay bets jj-qq on the turn as often as you think. dlpnyc21
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