10/25 NL live weird spot after 3-betting preflop

[McStinky]

Foxwoods 10/25, 10-handed.

Don't have much of a read on villain. He is somewhere between a mediocre player and a decent player. My image is pretty tight and solid, but capable of making a move here and there. I don't think I have 3-bet preflop in quite a while.

I have 4000, villain covers.

I am in the cutoff with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Preflop
All fold to villain in late position who raises to 75. I reraise to 275 and he calls.

Flop (600): K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain checks, I bet 450, and he calls.

Turn (1500): A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villain leads out for 750. Not really sure how to read this or what to do. Just shove and pray?

[_Gabe_]

uhmmm....

....


...fold?

[lippy]

[ QUOTE ]
uhmmm....

....


...fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Act like you have QQ then fold.

[McStinky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
uhmmm....

....


...fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Act like you have QQ then fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought that if he had AK he would go for a check-raise on the turn. He is more likely to have worse than AK, like a pair of aces plus flush draw. And he will fold anything less than AK to a push. So it looks like this all comes down to the probability that he has a huge hand here, which seems pretty low. No?

[TheWorstPlayer]

uh, since when does anyone fold aces with a flush draw here to a shove?

[FiSheYe]

[ QUOTE ]
uh, since when does anyone fold aces with a flush draw here to a shove?

[/ QUOTE ]


err we are 160bb deep this is not an autocall with a Flushdraw or TP+flushdraw!
I think it's an interesting spot for a bluff shove but this is really read dependant and you said Villain is kinda mediocre so we cannot rule out that he might call with weakish 2pairs, TP+flushdraw or so.
I would much rather do that move against someone I know who perceives me as very ABC and will fold alot than someone who I perceive as bad and weird.
The problem is even tho 44,88, KK, AK might be unlikely, we don't know Villain good enough to rule these hands out..
If he calls PF raises OOP with a wide range we cannot even rule out K8s, A8s, A4s etc.
Additionally you cannot provide any reads about Villains turn donks, mostly this doesn't screams strenght but if you say he would c/r the turn why would he donkbet the turn with AXs ? This doesn't make much sense since you could fold out worse hands and might raise with better hands, thus giving him headache and extracted the minimum while losing the maximum.
I don't mind just staying out of trouble and folding in this spot.
Your move itself isn't bad but this is a guessing game and if you really have an edge against him I wouldn't try to force things with such a gamble.

Just practise good old patience and you'll get the best of him eventually.

[lwrunner103]

Any physical tells/reads? How quick did he bet it?

[McStinky]

[ QUOTE ]
Any physical tells/reads? How quick did he bet it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he asked me how much I had left after I bet the flop, but that doesn't mean much. On the turn I can't point to anything specific, but things smelled fishy enough that I decided to fold.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
uh, since when does anyone fold aces with a flush draw here to a shove?

[/ QUOTE ]


err we are 160bb deep this is not an autocall with a Flushdraw or TP+flushdraw!

[/ QUOTE ]
errr but when has anyone ever folded it?

[captainwacky]

if you were slightly deeper I think you could try and do something, but given you're only 160bbs deep, your maneuverability is kinda hampered by the fact that you can't make a believable raise without just throwing away a lot of money a good percentage of the time.