Adrian Peterson is not Overrated, statistical comparison CTaylor - AP

[vhawk01]

24 teams have less rushing yards than AP. 20 teams have less rushing TDs.

[Pudge714]

Marion Barber is probably the best chain to chain guy. If I had 3 and 5 and I needed to pick someone to get the first down it would be him. He has had less carries than Peterson this year, but has been really good.
If you factor in receiving a healthy Ronnie Brown was having an incredible year before getting injured without receiving he was just having a very good year.
Brian Westbrook is always incredibly underrated he is basically a number 2 receiver and a starting rb.
Addai is also very good, but I have no idea how he would do on worse teams.

[Jack of Arcades]

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Can someone clear something up for me (Jack come back to your computer)--I keep hearing "can we see what his stats look like w/o those big runs etc."

This doesn't make sense to me, doesn't he still have to make those long runs? All these long runs I have seen are AP shooting the hole much faster than Taylor does, running over someone, shaking 1-2 guys and then flat-out outrunning an entire secondary...how can you just disregard that? To me that isn't variance, if it were, Chester Taylor would have had as many big runs as AP back when they were getting equal carries.

It just seems wrong to dismiss incredible runs where he showcases talent that really nobody else in the NFL has (this isn't to say he is the best back in the NFL right now--but I don't think anyone has his combination of power/speed/quickness) so that we can try to bend the numbers in a way we want.

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Well, the basic idea is that the value of rushing yards aren't linear. Ie, 2 yards is not twice as good as 1 yard. Rushing average isn't the best way to measure an RB's value, especially one that breaks off long runs. A 6.6 average is nuts though, insanely valuable, etc, but a guy who averaged 6.6 ypc with no run over 20 yards would be better.

[tdarko]

Jack,

Don't talk about Purple Jesus like that.

[SL__72]

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Jack,

Don't talk about Purple Jesus like that.

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I love that this nickname is catching on!

[AbreuTime]

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Well, the basic idea is that the value of rushing yards aren't linear. Ie, 2 yards is not twice as good as 1 yard. Rushing average isn't the best way to measure an RB's value, especially one that breaks off long runs. A 6.6 average is nuts though, insanely valuable, etc, but a guy who averaged 6.6 ypc with no run over 20 yards would be better.

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You are slightly mistaken in your analysis.

True statement: a 6.6 ypc with no run over 20 yards would be more valuable than ADP's current stats.
UNTRUE statement: a back with a 6.6 ypc with no run over 20 yards would be more valuable than ADP.

Reason/argument: putting ADP on that team would give you the 6.6 ypc on the shorter runs and he would also break the long runs. The reason he has negative yard runs is because defenses load up the box to prevent ADP from getting 6.6 ypc on small runs. So, they occassionally bust up the o-line and drop him for a loss.

I'm not sure what your point is. A guarenteed 2.5 yards per carry would result in a touchdown every drive (if the OC had perfect information). So what? ADP is not valuable because he has 1000 yards; he's valuable because he's doing this against defenses designed to stop him, and he is doing what Chester Taylor can only dream about.

[Jack of Arcades]

That was a lot of work just to pick a nit.

[tdarko]

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putting ADP on that team would give you the 6.6 ypc on the shorter runs and he would also break the long runs. The reason he has negative yard runs is because defenses load up the box to prevent ADP from getting 6.6 ypc on small runs. So, they occassionally bust up the o-line and drop him for a loss.

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I don't feel like digging it up but I actually did make this argument after his Bears performance when I was going against the boom or bust label. Minn really just can't throw the ball at all, they are running the ball over 40 times and they have Jackson and Bollinger mucking up the passing game. Of course they are going to stack the box and of course AP is going to have some short runs.

[AbreuTime]

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His style of running means he regularly needs to get runs like that because he will gets a decent amount of 2 yard losses and 2 and 12 or 3 and 12 are bad places all offenses and terrible places for the Vikings offense. He averaged 5ypc at Oklahoma I doubt he is going to average more in the NFL.

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You make 2 points.

First, what about his "style of running" makes him more liable to have 2 and 3 yard losses? He "dances" less than other RBs (like Westbrook). In the 3 games of his that I have watched, he tends to hit the holes fast, lunging forward, which often turns a 3 yard gain into a stumbling 7 yarder. When/if he gets through the 9 man box, he is into a thin secondary, which explains his long runs. If defenses respected the pass more, then ADP would likely have fewer long runs IMO, because there would be more (and faster) people in the secondary to make the touchdown-saving tackles. But, ADP would run through defenses at 5-8 yards per pop with fewer negative runs.

Secondly, his rushing average in NCAA would be influenced by the same things (defenses, competition, schemes, injuries, running load) that will influence his NFL average. I'm obviously not saying that ADP will even come close to sustaining 6.6, but 5.0 is not his ceiling simply because that was his average in college.

[THAY3R]

Mewelde Moore > AP ldo