College Football Rank 'em --- Week 8 - Page 9

BobJoeJim · #81 10-22-2007, 04:16 AM

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USC is a 2.5 dog to Oregon. Anyone know that last time USC was an underdog?

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Rose Bowl last year, Michigan -1.5 according to Covers.com

Last time USC was an underdog in a regular season game (and the second most recent time overall): 08/23/2003 @Auburn -4.

Of course USC won both of those games. The last time USC was an underdog AND LOST THE GAME was: 09/21/2002 @Kansas State -2.5, KSU won 27-20.

I don't know why I'm having so much fun researching this, but let's do one more. Last time USC was a dog in a Pac Ten conference game was 11/17/2001 vs. UCLA -3.

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what has me a bit confused is how most places have different closing numbers for the same games

Phil Steele listed USC -1 v Michigan as the close for last year's Rose Bowl
Goldsheet had it pk
covers had it Michigan -1.5

gah

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I only bothered to check covers but I made a point of citing my source just in case this were true. Glad I did so, lol.

iggymcfly · #82 10-22-2007, 05:04 AM

This is probably a pretty good indicator of how bored I am, but it turns out that Michigan was actually favored by 2.5 at game time.

MyTurn2Raise · #83 10-22-2007, 05:26 AM

In a results oriented world,
Kansas is the #1 team!!!!!!!!!!

You math nerds might like that. Give some feedback on how to make the assumptions better.

MyTurn2Raise · #84 10-22-2007, 05:33 AM

my new top 5
1. Kansas
2. Ohio State
3. Arizona State
4. Boston College
5. LSU

MyTurn2Raise · #85 10-22-2007, 05:34 AM

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This is probably a pretty good indicator of how bored I am, but it turns out that Michigan was actually favored by 2.5 at game time.

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that's right...I was lamenting the 'bad' price I had on USC

the public jumped all over the big11ten side after Wisconsin beat Arkansas and Penn St beat Tennessee that morning

lollerskates

BobJoeJim · #86 10-22-2007, 05:41 AM

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In a results oriented world,
Kansas is the #1 team!!!!!!!!!!

You math nerds might like that. Give some feedback on how to make the assumptions better.

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Hmm, very interesting. I'm curious to see if it would come out any differently if you used #1 as a basis instead of #5. I'm also surprised to see that this methodology ranks Kansas' schedule as tougher than ASU/OSU/BC, considering that Sagarin's SoS numbers have those three as all having played noticably tougher schedules than Kansas.

I guess the difference is that Kansas has played more COMPLETE patsies, and once the winning chances hit 99% it doesn't matter how much worse the team is. Playing the #120 team isn't really worse than playing the #80 team when you look at it this way, since a "true" #5 team should beat either 99% of the time. Looking at it this way, it doesn't matter that Kansas' weak opponents are collectively weaker than those of the other three, they can ride the KSU game (which ranks as the toughest that any currently undefeated team has played) and come out as having the toughest schedule of any current undefeated because of it.

I'm not sure yet if this is a flaw in your analysis methodology, or a revelatory realization, lol. I'm gonna have to think a little more about it.

BobJoeJim · #87 10-22-2007, 05:46 AM

Also, would I be correct in presuming that a true #5 team would have an expected win percentage of .990 against that *other* undefeated who you didn't bother to cover here? And who should be your #6 team, at +0.010

Semtex · #88 10-22-2007, 05:46 AM

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my new top 5
1. Kansas
2. Ohio State
3. Arizona State
4. Boston College
5. LSU

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Just curious, in your results oriented top 5, why does Hawaii not make the list?

MyTurn2Raise · #89 10-22-2007, 05:48 AM

BobJoeJim,
I do plan at looking at #1. The problem is that all indexes have problems at the tails and number 1 is definitely at the tail.

Also, the difference you pointed out is a flaw that critics have with the RPI in bball. Basically, the RPI tends to reward teams for playing #130 at home instead of #210 at home even though the win pcts for both games are 98%+ for a top 30 team. It's the exact method that certain schools, Tennessee two season ago for instance, have used to game the RPI system (lol at a #2 seed for that team).

I was also shocked at the results. My jaw dropped when Kansas came up that high.

MyTurn2Raise · #90 10-22-2007, 05:49 AM

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my new top 5
1. Kansas
2. Ohio State
3. Arizona State
4. Boston College
5. LSU

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Just curious, in your results oriented top 5, why does Hawaii not make the list?

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yeah...you and BobJoeJIm both hit on that one, I should've looked at Hawai'i. I'll add them to the mix.