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#81
10-09-2007, 05:43 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
[ QUOTE ]
I think I'll always be outside of this because I don't understand the obsession with National Champ the goal is the Rose Bowl...everything else is a big whatever [/ QUOTE ] Easy to say, as an Illini fan. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Really though, this illustrates that CFB is not the zero sum game that other sports are. Illinois is not going to win the NC this year, but I think you will be satisfied with their season overall, especially if they end up winning the Qdoba Mexican Grill Cubic Zirconia Bowl or whatever. (Really, they will probably do better.) This is not to suggest that "successful seasons" where a team does not win it all do not exist in other (mainly pro) sports. They do -- just not nearly to the same degree. 
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#82
10-09-2007, 05:45 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
There aren't 119 teams in the same division. 11 teams in the Big Ten, and the goal is a Big Ten championship.
Caveat: As the Indians already won their division I now consider this baseball season a success. The playoffs are exhibition games. Fun to watch, but the season is the real game.
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#83
10-09-2007, 05:49 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
I would like to point out that while not every team has a realistic shot at winning a national championship, NCAA football crowns the best team as champion more often than any other major sport.
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#84
10-09-2007, 05:50 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
[ QUOTE ]
tO$U [/ QUOTE ] Does anyone else get annoyed over stupid intentional misspellings like this? I'm a Michigan fan and would never be so dumb as to spell it like this every. single. time.
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#85
10-09-2007, 06:21 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
as a michigan fan, it pained me to vote the way i did, but put me down for lsu vs. osu...
yes, it's in the big house, yes i fully expect it to be a close game, but unfortunately, i'm a michigan fan, and our glass is always half-empty until we actually beat osu... lsu is dominating. that's the other half.
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#86
10-09-2007, 06:45 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] That's part of the ridiculousness, there should NOT be 119 teams in the same division, period. D-IA should really be limited to at most 50-60 or so teams. [/ QUOTE ] I think I'll always be outside of this because I don't understand the obsession with National Champ the goal is the Rose Bowl...everything else is a big whatever [/ QUOTE ] Perhaps you should post some stats showing how many more Rose Bowl victories the Big 10 has compared to the SEC.
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#87
10-09-2007, 06:46 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] tO$U [/ QUOTE ] Does anyone else get annoyed over stupid intentional misspellings like this? I'm a Michigan fan and would never be so dumb as to spell it like this every. single. time. [/ QUOTE ] it's not a misspelling I figured a scUM fan would know that
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#88
10-09-2007, 06:48 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] That's part of the ridiculousness, there should NOT be 119 teams in the same division, period. D-IA should really be limited to at most 50-60 or so teams. [/ QUOTE ] I think I'll always be outside of this because I don't understand the obsession with National Champ the goal is the Rose Bowl...everything else is a big whatever [/ QUOTE ] Perhaps you should post some stats showing how many more Rose Bowl victories the Big 10 has compared to the SEC. [/ QUOTE ] Pac10 has owned the series I think alot of it has to do with Big11Ten teams having the goal of just getting to the Rose Bowl as much higher than winning the Rose Bowl Playing at UCLA has factored in a few times curious calls a few other times-- don't ever play West Coast teams on the West Coast
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#89
10-09-2007, 06:50 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
[ QUOTE ]
I would like to point out that while not every team has a realistic shot at winning a national championship, NCAA football crowns the best team as champion more often than any other major sport. [/ QUOTE ] other than 2002, the system has weeded out pretenders pretty well
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#90
10-09-2007, 06:56 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
So... how likely is it for each of the current undefeated teams to remain undefeated this year? This is a key component to predicting the BCS title game... and I have numbers!
For each of the 11 current undefeated teams, I calculated the predicted spread for each of their remaining games using Sagarin's predictor rankings. I assumed they would face the highest rated team in their conference in a conference title game, and used a home advantage of 3. I then used Bookmaker.com's current data set of spreads and moneylines to calculate a rough conversion between spread and odds of winning, and used this to calculate each team's odds of winning each remaining game. Then it was just simple multiplication to get the odds of them remaining perfect for the whole year. Thus, without further ado, the odds of each team remaining undefeated according to Sagarin are approximately: Ohio State - 49.8% (favored by 9.5 @Penn State, 15+ in every other game) LSU - 30.9% (double digit fave in every game until the SEC Championship) Hawaii - 18.2% (Favored by double digits until their last two games, and still 2.5 and 2.6 point faves at home to BSU and UDub) Cincinnati - 14.4% (favored @USF) Arizona State - 5.7% South Florida - 4.8% Boston College 4.6% Kansas - 3.5% (18.4% chance of reaching the Big Twelve title game unscathed) Cal - 1.5% (underdog @UCLA, @ASU, and vs. USC) Connecticut - 0.9% Missouri - 0.02% (it sucks to have to play Oklahoma twice)
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