some facts/opinions on A-rod

[prohornblower]

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Did you guys here that Boras thinks A-Rod will hit 1,000 HR's and be the all time hit leader by the time he retires? For that reason, Boras is saying A-Rod will play until he is 45 and can command $500 million to $1 Billion in salary.

I can't find the link but it's on ESPN.com.

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Boras thought Johnny Damon deserved a 7 year deal. Do you realize how bad Johnny Damon has been in all of his seasons?

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FYP

[vhawk01]

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BTW this is complete crap:

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The Yankees came in streaking, overcoming a 21-29 start to win the AL wild card. But they were done in by poor pitching, an insect invasion and the latest October vanishing act by Rodriguez, whose bat was quiet until a solo home run in the seventh inning.

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A disappointed crowd of 56,315 also might have seen Rodriguez in pinstripes for the final time. A likely MVP during the regular season, A-Rod was largely AWOL in the playoffs for the third straight year, striking out with two on in the first and again leading off the third.

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]http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap;_ylt=Ap2TqDj9N5NBKkM8XWfb7sk5nYcB?gid=271008 110[/url]


ARod's numbers for the series: 4 games, 4 for 15(.267 avg), 2 walks, 1 HR, 2 runs, 1 RBI

Not great, but why does he get singled out for a "vanishing act"? Derek Jeter hit .167 for the series btw.

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It's a good question, but these numbers mean absolutely zippo given the situations that they occurred. The frustrating part is that as time passes people will attribute more and more significance to them and forget their context. As happens every time.

The argument against ARod continues to be that his numbers would have been worse if Games 3 and 4 were closer in the late innings, and his numbers would have been much much better if all the games were complete blowouts.

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LOL so now its not even that he cant do it in the playoffs its he cant do it in the playoffs in big spots. Like how, sure he can perform during the regular season but not during the regular season in big spots right?

[vhawk01]

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Question for those who refuse to accept the plausibility of a player bowing to pressure in the playoffs (i.e. ARod's unclutchiness)from a guy who thinks such things are plausible; are the playoff numbers for pitchers like Schilling, Becket and Smoltz due only to to variance and sample size?

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It's not that most of us refuse to accept ARod "isn't clutch." It's that we need more evidence than 30-40 PAs, even a few seasons worth of PAs might not be enough. And also, even if ARod has the worst clutch/non-clutch splits in baseball history it'd still be much, much better to have him at bat than clutch heroes like Scott Brosius or Aaron Boone.

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Neuge,

If he actually broke down and cried at the plate could we accept a smaller sample size, or would we still wait for statistical significance?

A separate question: Do baseball scouts do anything worthwhile, or should they all be fired and the money saved?

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So your point is you are intimidated by math so you will make fun of people who are smarter than you and base their opinions on reality and not bias. Neat tactic.

[kidcolin]

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A separate question: Do baseball scouts do anything worthwhile, or should they all be fired and the money saved?


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Advanced scouts probably do, but yeah, most teams could save a lot of money by cutting down on their scouting staff big time. The internet is a beautiful thing.

[DesertCat]

Career Post Season Stats
Jeter .309/.377/.469/.856
A-Rod .279/.361/.483/.844

Clearly Jeter is way clutchier than A-Rod. Based on anecdotal evidence (Yankee fan chatter), I believe Jeter is also hitting .978 with runners in scoring position for his post season career, vs. A-Rod's .000.

[Hollywade]

Fact: The Yankees would not have made the playoffs this year without the services of Alex Rodriguez.

Opinion: Some people go overboard in their analysis of postseason stats, forgetting that you are usually facing the best pitching in the league at that point and the statistics of a couple five game series are too small a sample size to accurately judge a player's worth.

Opinion: Alex would look very good wearing the Old English "D" next season and I am excited.

Opinion: New York will not seriously contend for a championship next year after losing Torre, Rodriguez, Posada, Rivera, Clemens, and Pettitte.

[disjunction]

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Question for those who refuse to accept the plausibility of a player bowing to pressure in the playoffs (i.e. ARod's unclutchiness)from a guy who thinks such things are plausible; are the playoff numbers for pitchers like Schilling, Becket and Smoltz due only to to variance and sample size?

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It's not that most of us refuse to accept ARod "isn't clutch." It's that we need more evidence than 30-40 PAs, even a few seasons worth of PAs might not be enough. And also, even if ARod has the worst clutch/non-clutch splits in baseball history it'd still be much, much better to have him at bat than clutch heroes like Scott Brosius or Aaron Boone.

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Neuge,

If he actually broke down and cried at the plate could we accept a smaller sample size, or would we still wait for statistical significance?

A separate question: Do baseball scouts do anything worthwhile, or should they all be fired and the money saved?

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So your point is you are intimidated by math so you will make fun of people who are smarter than you and base their opinions on reality and not bias. Neat tactic.

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vhawk,

My statistical plea, about the type of stat you'd want to use, IN REPLY TO YOU, was earlier in the thread and was ignored. I have been unwavering in this, for the last 2 years, over what defines a clutch hit. Saying I have changed it, when I have always railed against the meaninglessness of "postseason" compilations, is LAUGHABLE.

You continue to miss my point, which is that you are not restricted to only using statistical data.

Your tone is not appreciated. I have no doubt that I am better at "math" (I use the word you choose, although it's a strange selection since there are a lot of branches), than anybody in this thread. The problem is that those of you who know a little think you know a lot. Reading the arguments on here mocking who they think are "dumb fans" reminds me of when I'm at the casino and I see a random guy berating his wife over how to add the chips.

[metsandfinsfan]

as much as i have dissed arods postseason slump the past few seasons, he would be nuts to opt out

rumor has it that cuban is trying to buy the cubs and that boras and cuban have already discussed an arod deal .. so if that is the case, then yes i can see him opting out

otherwise, it would be nuts for him to do it without tampering

[disjunction]

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BTW this is complete crap:

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The Yankees came in streaking, overcoming a 21-29 start to win the AL wild card. But they were done in by poor pitching, an insect invasion and the latest October vanishing act by Rodriguez, whose bat was quiet until a solo home run in the seventh inning.

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A disappointed crowd of 56,315 also might have seen Rodriguez in pinstripes for the final time. A likely MVP during the regular season, A-Rod was largely AWOL in the playoffs for the third straight year, striking out with two on in the first and again leading off the third.

[/ QUOTE ]
]http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap;_ylt=Ap2TqDj9N5NBKkM8XWfb7sk5nYcB?gid=271008 110[/url]


ARod's numbers for the series: 4 games, 4 for 15(.267 avg), 2 walks, 1 HR, 2 runs, 1 RBI

Not great, but why does he get singled out for a "vanishing act"? Derek Jeter hit .167 for the series btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a good question, but these numbers mean absolutely zippo given the situations that they occurred. The frustrating part is that as time passes people will attribute more and more significance to them and forget their context. As happens every time.

The argument against ARod continues to be that his numbers would have been worse if Games 3 and 4 were closer in the late innings, and his numbers would have been much much better if all the games were complete blowouts.

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LOL so now its not even that he cant do it in the playoffs its he cant do it in the playoffs in big spots. Like how, sure he can perform during the regular season but not during the regular season in big spots right?

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The hypothesis is that when his adrenaline is out of control he will fail. It's apparent before the at-bat, and if your methodology were to get everyone to do just, then you'd succeed (or to read the twoplustwo posts, most of which were mockingly predicting an ARod HR before it happened yesterday). But it's very hard to find the proper subset of the data.

The fact that you can't distinguish the required subset, and it doesn't fit into neat categories like playoff/non-playoff etc., is your fault as the data collector, not the fault of the hypothesis.

Furthermore, I'll throw you a bone here, I'm not claiming great predictive value. Maybe he'll get hypnosis or something and be a changed man next year. This year, it's obvious he would have choked in Game 5 if given the chance.

[jogsxyz]

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Did you guys here that Boras thinks A-Rod will hit 1,000 HR's and be the all time hit leader by the time he retires? For that reason, Boras is saying A-Rod will play until he is 45 and can command $500 million to $1 Billion in salary.

I can't find the link but it's on ESPN.com.

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Boras is a sports agent. What would he say if he were an owner?