2007 2nd half AL West Thread

[kyleb]

Salty has great potential, but Teixiera is a known quantity who is a top 15 player. Salty probably won't be nearly as good as him.

[kyleb]

Will Carroll said:

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It's amazing just how much value in prospective trades the Angels have lost in the last year. An offer of Ervin Santana would have been jumped at just a couple months ago. Casey Kotchmann has helped himself by hitting, but there are a lot of teams that would have taken the risk that it was mono holding him back last year. I had a scout tell me that Brandon Wood was "Adam Dunn, but smaller," and I think he meant it as an insult.

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Yeah, how true it is. Just 12 months ago these names stirred up a ton of value - not anymore.

[Vyse]

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If the payroll can handle Teixiera, then Santana + Kotchman is definitely worth it. I highly doubt GM Jon Daniels will take it, though - that's just not enough for a top 15 player. He's going to want Brandon Wood.

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Teix is making $9 mil this season. He'll make ~$11 million next season. He's then gone. Kotchman is cheap for the next four years or so and is an above-average 1B. Factor in the saved cost and flexibility and it's a fine deal. Daniels would be silly to try to get Wood because that's overkill, and rightly so.

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If the Angels deal away Wood or even Kendrick or Weaver for anything less than the 2nd coming of Babe Ruth, I'm heading down to Angel Stadium with explosives strapped to my waist.

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Neither Wood, Kendrick or Weaver are that great. That seems pretty evident now.

[kyleb]

Uh, Kendrick is definitely "great." So is Weaver, and Wood is pretty damn good.

The value of Kotchman/Santana may not be worth the compensation draft picks that Daniels could get.

[Vyse]

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Uh, Kendrick is definitely "great." So is Weaver, and Wood is pretty damn good.

The value of Kotchman/Santana may not be worth the compensation draft picks that Daniels could get.

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Kendrick's hitting nearly .300 and is still a mediocre player. Get some secondary skills; if he has to hit .320 in order to have value, his major league career is not going to be that great. Weaver is in no way close to great; he was seen as a 3rd starter when he was drafted, and his GB:FB ratio has always been poor, suggesting he's never going to be close to an ace despite his rookie season. Wood's looking like a solid above average regular and nothing more, and may not even be that by the time he hits the majors.

The value of compensation picks? Yeah, picks he won't see for two years? The value of compensation picks has gone down since the new CBA anyway, and you don't think Kotchman and Santana will get compensation picks either? If you're counting Teixeira's picks two years from now, let's count theirs five years from now. In which case Daniels wins even more.

[kyleb]

Kendrick's bat control has always been good, and he was injured for part of this season. He will be a career .300 hitter and has some pop in the bat. When a rookie second baseman can easily be projected to have an .800 OPS and play credibly good defense, that's "great."

I guess I withdraw the label of "great" on Jered Weaver, though I think he's pretty good.

As for Wood, solid above average regulars who can play shortstop don't grow on trees, especially given the Rangers minor league system. I think you don't appreciate the value of "average" major leaguers, like most fantasy gurus.

What I originally said is that Santana/Kotchman is not nearly enough if the Braves are willing to deal Saltalamacchia/Andrus/Reyes for Teixiera/C.J. Wilson or Benoit. They need to throw in Wood if they want to beat that, since Salty is better than Kotchman and Andrus+Reyes is way better than Santana.

[Vyse]

But Wood is 3B, not SS anymore.

I appreciate the value of "average" major leaguers just fine, so no need to make such a silly assumption. Matter of fact, the biggest market inefficiency in fantasy sports is the "average" to below-average SP you can spot start, of which I champion all the time. So no dice.

I'm referring to their previous expectations as awesome prospects and etc. Wood was No. 1 on many a prospect list; hence me saying he's not "great" should be beyond obvious that I'm referencing that. Same with Kendrick, who everyone in the world nutted over before the season. The fact that such expectations have changed to "800 OPS and good defense" is proof his stock has fallen so hard; that was supposed to be the lowest of his baselines.

Considering how every trade rumor column has emphasized how no one is stupid enough to give up two top prospects for any one player, I don't know why that prospective Braves' offer is even worthy of discussion -- it's obvious the Braves would not be that stupid, and if they would be that stupid, Teixeira would've been traded in a second.

EDIT: Oh yeah, Kendrick has sucked outside of his injuries, and there's little proof his broken fingers have affected his hitting.

[kyleb]

Oh, we agree on the expectations on the Angels' prospects. Stoneman is the worst in that regard, it's like he has no idea where the "trade" button is. Wood, Aybar, and Kendrick were all thought to be the next comings of Chavez, Tejada, and Brian Roberts, and now they are all serviceable average-to-above average major leaguers.

I still have a lot of faith in Kendrick, especially at second base.

As for the Braves, they don't seem to want to play Saltalamacchia much anyway, and it's possible that they are going to try and leverage him and Andrus like they did Marte.

[kyleb]

BTW:

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One interesting tidbit is that this discussion between the Indians and Rangers didn't start with Lofton--the Tribe was quietly in on Mark Teixeira.

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Yeah RIGHT. Like the Indians could possibly swing a deal for Teixiera. Who the [censored] would they trade? Garko + Gutierrez are the obvious choices, but Daniels is not taking Cliff Lee, who will obviously give up 900 home runs a year in Arlington.

[DesertCat]

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Salty has great potential, but Teixiera is a known quantity who is a top 15 player. Salty probably won't be nearly as good as him.

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Is Teixiera really a top 15 player? That would mean he's the best first baseman in both leagues. My impression of him is, good, well above average first baseman, but far from the best. Career OPS+ 127. If you drop out his first year, he's closer to 135. Not HOF numbers for a first baseman.

This year he's 6th in 1B OPS. He's behind Howard, Pena, Pujols, Fielder, and Morneau. He has the exact same OPS+ as Garko.

Given the lack of defensive value in first basemen, isn't Teixiera really somewhere in the top 50-100 of position players by over-all value? So maybe 100-200 if you include pitchers? Still a very good player you'd like to have, but not cheap.