My turn: MLB Overnight Betting

[dudeimstoked]

[ QUOTE ]
Yep, another day, another bet on the Giants.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep and what makes it worse is I'm from LA.

Also the Dodgers still continue to let me down.

[dudeimstoked]

Friday Results
3-3-0 (-0.57 units)

The past 2 days have been about right, I have both Brandon Webb and CC Sabathia on my fantasy team...

[dudeimstoked]

Picks will probably come late tomorrow, I may be busy for most of the day.

[whipsaw]

if your model is producing a bet on SFO basically every day, then your model is overinflating something for SFO. the books aren't that consistently wrong on the same team (except maybe the yankees due to lol publicaments)

[TomG]

Barry Bonds has something like twice the OB%*SLG% as the next guy in the line-up. If you use the simple OB%*SLG% as your "runs created" formula you are going to end up over-estimating the Giants offensive potential as a team. That is because the accuracy of OB%*SLG% requires each player to be approximately equal to each other. For example, consider the extreme case where it's Barry Bonds and a bunch of little leaguers. Bonds has an OB%*SLG% of about 1. All of the other players have an OB%*SLG% of 0. Unless Bonds hits a HR, the Giants aren't going to score any runs. But the formula of OB%*SLG% will project that team an offensive power rating of about 1 and will score (1/League Average Offensive Power Rating)*(League Average Runs Scored). That would have them scoring close to 1 run per game which clearly overestimates the teams offense. So if you aren't correcting for this already, you might want to look into some other versions of the "runs created" formula that account for this.

[dudeimstoked]

I actually took Bonds out of the starting lineup and it still liked this play. Oh well...

ps. i "extremely dislike" barry bonds (sorry to all you norcal kids)

[dudeimstoked]

Guess what? No SF play!

Sunday MLB
Florida Marlins -102
Arizona Diamondbacks +159 (2)
Toronto Blue Jays -137

Watch the Cle/Tex line for a possible under.

[APT]

You pick SF because its lineup is filled with bunch of underperformers.I think it is ok if you think they will pick up.They will pick up or are just old in the declining phase.Who knows?

[dudeimstoked]

Saturday Results
6-3-0 (+3.95 units)

Week Results
19-22-0 (+2.56 units; ROI: 5.46%)

YTD Results
39-42-0 (+2.53 units; ROI: 2.62%)

[dudeimstoked]

Added Play for Sunday
Cle/Tex UNDER 11 -110 (.5)
The line didn't move as favorably as I thought it would. Hopefully you will be able to grab this at +100 before the game tomorrow, but i'm not holding my breath.