UFC 73 Thread - Page 9

igetbadbeat · #81 07-09-2007, 01:05 PM

At the risk of being banned, I'm gonna go ahead and state that there is nothing wrong with performify's picks and thought process as long as he's not sandbagging. Very often I fear he is recommending picks so he can bet the other side or just make referral money.

Either way I very much appreciate his long write ups because regardless of what he is doing, he is stating a well thought out opinion and if you as a bettor cannot judge how true it is by yourself, then you have no business betting.

GSP vs Serra is perhaps one of the only upsets I've seen in recent history (true upsets). Sokou vs Rogerio isn't that bad because we were intimately acquianted with sokou, Gomi vs Diaz...I was on Diaz. Henderson vs Silva, Silva was supposedly sick....that line looked 0EV to me anyway even if Silva was in good shape. I think everyone who took Manny vs Diaz got screwed though. Penn vs Hughes was another huge upset IMO, I lost what was essentially a bridgejumper on that +221 line...

As far as marquadt vs Silva, I firmly believe Silva was undervalued due to his lutter fight. His TD defense is much better than that, it's just that he had knee surgeries on both knees before that. I took marquadt @ +180 due to a combo of undervaluing silva even knowing such and overvaluing marquadt and his strength. There's no doubt that Nate was worse than a 2:1 dog in that fight AFTER it started, but that doesn't mean anything. We can only base it off what we know before the fight starts. In the same token I still stick by Rashad being the better pick over Tito even though once the fihgt started we could see tito was going to win more often than not

cardman · #82 07-09-2007, 01:44 PM

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GSP is another story -- one dominant round and a whole lot of gassing in the second and third... that Penn shows up against Sherk (which I don't think happens) and he's in serious trouble.

-P

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That's a problem for Penn. His endurance and conditioning training. Sean Sherk is a conditioning freak. Guy doesn't look like he ever gets tired. Hope the fight doesn't go 5 rounds for Penn's sake.

I would rate that fight as a pick'em or Sherk as a very slight favorite.

cardman · #83 07-09-2007, 01:46 PM

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Only value for me in all the fight cards, is the Rashad fight. I think Rashad is a good value at pick'em. Taking a pass on all the other fights.

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I was thankful for the draw. Was heavy on Rashad.

WiiiiiiMan · #84 07-09-2007, 01:58 PM

Performify, I know how to say jiu jitsu, that whole thing was just a failed attempt at being humorous, lol.

2. I happened to be pretty moody last night so my posts seemed like attacks rather then just stating my opinion.

3. All I am saying is that everybody pushes invisible hype to make things exciting and you fall into that category as have I in previous events, I have learned my lesson though.

4. I'll be happy to post the bets I make for public record, as I usually put a couple hundo on lines I like every event anyways.

Gl in future picks.......

danvh · #85 07-09-2007, 03:23 PM

By the way, is there a 2p2 MM fantasy league? I know there is a link on ufcjunkie for one (dont want to link directly and cost em referrals). Seems like it would be fun and a public way for everyone to make their picks..Especially for busto people who cant bet on many fights..

MikeyPatriot · #86 07-09-2007, 04:15 PM

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By the way, is there a 2p2 MM fantasy league? I know there is a link on ufcjunkie for one (dont want to link directly and cost em referrals). Seems like it would be fun and a public way for everyone to make their picks..Especially for busto people who cant bet on many fights..

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be into this if someone set it up

Performify · #87 07-09-2007, 05:07 PM

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Performify, I know how to say jiu jitsu, that whole thing was just a failed attempt at being humorous, lol.

2. I happened to be pretty moody last night so my posts seemed like attacks rather then just stating my opinion.

3. All I am saying is that everybody pushes invisible hype to make things exciting and you fall into that category as have I in previous events, I have learned my lesson though.

4. I'll be happy to post the bets I make for public record, as I usually put a couple hundo on lines I like every event anyways.

Gl in future picks.......

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Cool.

Good luck to you too, and thanks for the response.

-P

Performify · #88 07-09-2007, 05:12 PM

You guys are certainly also welcome to join team Junkie if you don't want to start one. We're the second largest camp right now AFAIK, but just outside top ten in results.

we don't get a referral bonus or anything else -- its pure run-of-site advertising.

But it is always nice sending traffic through the sponsors...

Mr biggums · #89 07-09-2007, 06:58 PM

1. Marqardt defintiely a class lower than silva. Everyone was all over Marqaurdt because UFC hypes the underdogs so people think it's going to be a good fight. Henderson is probably the only middleweight that can beat Silva, but that fight is basically a coinflip.

2. Even though Penn is the only one who can beat Sherk right now, I still think Sherk is the favorite. Hermes is a very accomplished blackbelt and he couldn't pull off a submission in 5 rounds.

3. Nogueira fights Arlovski or Sylvia for #1 contender fight
Vera fights Arlovski or Sylvia for #2 spot
Fedor jumps everyone and gets an immediate title shot whenever he wants

Went 8-0-1 (I had Tito)
I've been 31-7 since I started picking fights.

MikeyPatriot · #90 07-09-2007, 07:59 PM

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1. Marqardt defintiely a class lower than silva. Everyone was all over Marqaurdt because UFC hypes the underdogs so people think it's going to be a good fight. Henderson is probably the only middleweight that can beat Silva, but that fight is basically a coinflip.

2. Even though Penn is the only one who can beat Sherk right now, I still think Sherk is the favorite. Hermes is a very accomplished blackbelt and he couldn't pull off a submission in 5 rounds.

3. Nogueira fights Arlovski or Sylvia for #1 contender fight
Vera fights Arlovski or Sylvia for #2 spot
Fedor jumps everyone and gets an immediate title shot whenever he wants

Went 8-0-1 (I had Tito)
I've been 31-7 since I started picking fights.

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1. Whether or not the UFC does that (I don't catch much of their hype shows), that's not the reason people were picking him here.

2. Franca was also in dominated positions for 75% of the fight. I don't think Sherk will be able to do that to Baby Jay as often as he did last on Saturday.

3. Minotauro is fighting Cro Cop, assuming Cro Cop gets by Kongo.

4. Have you posted your picks somewhere?