Stupid preflop decision vs DeathDonkey

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
good so if youre 23% you should obviously call getting 5 to 1. this is a better implied odds situation than rio btw because sb has the good made hand he will feel inclined to pay off with and you have position, plus you can read his hand well so it's not like youll make a pair and pay off the whole way against AA. thanks for the sim now it's even more of a no brainer call.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, my "in-hand" equity was 20%, I am getting 4.5:1 and the SB will cap about ~7% of the time and I figured DD knew the SB had a tighter range and would show up with more here. I feel the implied odds and reverse implied odds near cancel each other.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so 5bet cap makes a big difference here right? yall are calling if its capped no?

[/ QUOTE ]

He isn't capping anything but AA and KK likely, don't sweat it.

[/ QUOTE ]

well in that case this shouldnt even be a discussion. ive played more hands with dd than any of you monkeys and if you are even considering folding i suggest quitting poker and heading to the local mcyds.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the decision is so close that it merits metagame considerations. If the fish and DD notice that you're folding in the face of this kind of action, then you could be inviting the fish to play back at you even more, which would be a total disaster in a short game where he is playing passively to begin with. You also could be inviting DD to start liberally trying to raise you out of the pot preflop and isolate the fish which would force you into some tougher preflop decisions.



[/ QUOTE ]

This wasn't one of those situations, I was aware of it as well as DD which he agreed. Actually, I prefaced all discussion with, "all meta-game situation are not in play in this hand", DD agreed fully.

[Joe Tall]

I have felt this from the beginning of this discussion with DD that morning: it doesn't really matter gents. It's stylistic, pure choice on how much variance you want to absorb.

I'm getting 4.5:1 with cold-23% equity and no worries about meta-game situations. That's about break even as it gets with the button in a live game. In my opinion, this argument is simply, "how much variance do you want to absorb?" and most of the long discussions like this are about thin EV situations. My style is less variant, DD is of higher variance.

The SB called DD's 4-bet and had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in this hand, DD had black-44. The flop came 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], the SB checked, DD bet, SB called. The turn was 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], check, bet, call, the river was 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], check, DD bet, the SB turned his hand up and said, "I really want to call but I think you have it this time," delayed a bit longer and folded where DD showed 44.

But if DD can make the 44 fold, and I can call/cap with the 97s just one time in the future when it's "right", this thread it worth a ton to me. That's why I post here, to find that one time, one spot, where I sprinkle a little DD/Mike L into my game.

This conversation carried over to the car ride home where I said to DD, "you cut yourself off at 44 there but you know 22-44 are the same equity-wise." and he said, "I dont care if 44 is or not, I can play 44 there but not 22-33."

And I said, all props to Tommy, which sums up this thread, "That's a perfect answer because we all play poker the same way, our own way." I keep growing my way all the time. Thanks guys for an interesting thread.

[andyfox]

The important point, for Joe, isn't whether DD should play 4-4 here. The important point is whether Joe should know that DD would play 4-4 here.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
The important point, for Joe, isn't whether DD should play 4-4 here. The important point is whether Joe should know that DD would play 4-4 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew DD could show up with some small-fry here but I didn't think vs this SB at this time, he would.

[DpR]

I played with DD for about 1hr this past week and it seems pretty typical that he would cap 44 in this spot and flop a 4 (although I would have guessed it would come on the turn or river).

[andyfox]

FWIW (and it's probably not much), I lean towards a fold here, Clark's excellent counter-arguments notwithstanding. Mike L. suggested that it is the non-Broadwayness of your cards that make them playable. But if Chris is capable of playing 4-4 this way, would he not be capable of playing, say, 9-8s this way, or something else that really puts you behind the proverbial 9-ball?

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
I played with DD for about 1hr this past week and it seems pretty typical that he would cap 44 in this spot and flop a 4 (although I would have guessed it would come on the turn or river).

[/ QUOTE ]

rofl so true

[mike l.]

"I am getting 4.5:1"

?? am i missing something? where'd the .5 come from?

"I feel the implied odds and reverse implied odds near cancel each other."

that's easy to say, but that's not the case here. your hand will have deception value. if the flop comes 772 no one will say oh joe must have a 7 when you start raising and reraising. it'll seem more likely you are in their with a decent pocket pair. also how bad your rio is is up to how well you play postflop, how well you read hands, and how aggressive the guy with the really good hand is (sb). reverse implied odds are avoidable to a great extent by playing great.