Knowing your math. Basic draws.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
wow you are the man Bobbo.

great work, thanks for putting so much time into this.

[/ QUOTE ]

no prob, thank my boring econ professor, he made us do power point presentations. actually, thank maulik, because i outsourced my homework to him. i thought of this instead of that, so really it was no biggie =)

[RiverHebrew2]

Hand 1- turn is a fold
Hand 2- if you check, then fold
Hand 3- I would assume you're up against a set, and if the flush hits at same time as your straight you won't get paid; you're effectively drawing to 6 outs on the river and good player has like $130 behind for river; that's close call sometimes fold others

[Kermit]

bobbo,

lawl...check your email.

i fail. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Isura]

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What does our line look like, raising the donk, cbetting 3people, then pushing the turn? I think we can rep a big hand (AK+, esp bc of the king) enough that JJ-99 do fold. But we cant be sure those even bet. So from a pure combinatorics perspective, ~4 combos of flushdraws that do not bet/fold, 9 set combos, and ~18 combos of JJ-99 (6 each) which may not fold. What that means is roughly 22:9 call/fold, which means we cant really expect villain to fold more then 30% of the time. I'd estimate a turn push is net -45$ EV push, or 22.5 BBs. That's a HUGE price to pay for image and a real spew.

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I'm not following your math here. Isn't it 13:18 call/fold ?

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What does our line look like, raising the donk, cbetting 3people, then pushing the turn? I think we can rep a big hand (AK+, esp bc of the king) enough that JJ-99 do fold. But we cant be sure those even bet. So from a pure combinatorics perspective, ~4 combos of flushdraws that do not bet/fold, 9 set combos, and ~18 combos of JJ-99 (6 each) which may not fold. What that means is roughly 22:9 call/fold, which means we cant really expect villain to fold more then 30% of the time. I'd estimate a turn push is net -45$ EV push, or 22.5 BBs. That's a HUGE price to pay for image and a real spew.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not following your math here. Isn't it 13:18 call/fold ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I weighed it as nit not necessarily bet/folding those, but rather spread it evenly. It's probably CLOSER to 13:18, but not precisely that. In fact, I wouldnt be surprised to see a player of that description simply c/f JJ there. What I do think though is if they stop and go, and they dont think the K is a scarecard, they arent folding much, and our 1card equity is fairly low.

[Isura]

Most nits are quite dumb, so I find that they don't have a strong hand in that spot as often as you are indicating.

[Kermit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What does our line look like, raising the donk, cbetting 3people, then pushing the turn? I think we can rep a big hand (AK+, esp bc of the king) enough that JJ-99 do fold. But we cant be sure those even bet. So from a pure combinatorics perspective, ~4 combos of flushdraws that do not bet/fold, 9 set combos, and ~18 combos of JJ-99 (6 each) which may not fold. What that means is roughly 22:9 call/fold, which means we cant really expect villain to fold more then 30% of the time. I'd estimate a turn push is net -45$ EV push, or 22.5 BBs. That's a HUGE price to pay for image and a real spew.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not following your math here. Isn't it 13:18 call/fold ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I weighed it as nit not necessarily bet/folding those, but rather spread it evenly. It's probably CLOSER to 13:18, but not precisely that. In fact, I wouldnt be surprised to see a player of that description simply c/f JJ there. What I do think though is if they stop and go, and they dont think the K is a scarecard, they arent folding much, and our 1card equity is fairly low.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the meaning of villains turn bet has A LOT to do with our image and the ability/thinking level of our opponent. as a nit, i push here a lot and i think its
profitable. of course, this could very well be one of those areas i have condiitoned myself to make an incorrect play based on its perceived past successes ( i am very guilty of this in a lot of areas).

i would be interested to hear Isura (or anyone else that advocated a turn shove) explain why they think its a better play.

[Kermit]

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Most nits are quite dumb, so I find that they don't have a strong hand in that spot as often as you are indicating.

[/ QUOTE ]

heh, thats pretty much how i look at it.

[RobertJohn]

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wow you are the man Bobbo.

great work, thanks for putting so much time into this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hook that book up!

[Chaostracize]

1. KTs hand. I think you get Ax's stack so rarely. When you call a second time and the flush finally hits only the best of the As pay off and most will fold. When you play your draw so much like a draw...people will believe you have that draw. I don't think you are considering the times when a flush card hits that makes a boat and the times when you are up against Axcc enough either...these create some huge reverse implied odds. Against someone truly horrible this is a call all day long, however the better the opp and the better the hand reader the more often I'll make this fold (and comfortably, too).

2. I like a CR here a lot. I think check calling is just bad, and it's not good for meta game, allowing someone to value bet you lightly. The last thing I want is to let a T VB me on the turn and then let him have free showdown. I think this turn bet is so often either a draw or a J/T that folds to a push that a push is just so great because A. you take it down a lot and B. it fits in well with (my) meta-game.

3. This is the closest imo, and the is because of the flush draw on the flop. Against someone really nitty I wouldn't expect a lead with a flush draw, although that K definitely gives a hand like KQss a super strong holding. I don't think you are really getting paid as often as you think, especially since even nits will lead turn only semi-strong to "find out where it's at" against your late position raise and c-bet. This flop check call and turn lead is so rarely strength, imo. I think a set will either CR the flop because it's so draw-heavy or it will just go ahead and lead so nothing crappy comes. The nit doesn't want the bad player to see a cheap turn with a gutshot, are you kidding me? While even though I think the chances of the nit having a set are low, some kind of big combo draw are is possible sometimes and even some K with spades is possible, I think, especially since the nit know the crappy player will be calling a lot. This is the only hand where I think it's a toss up. But I don't think folding is a bad option at all...and I really don't like a call. Too often nits will lead a turn, get called, and be like "mmm, second pair no good, I fold" making your call to hit your draw completely pointless.