Coming Soon: Justin Upton

[rwperu34]

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Bruce has raped Triple-A more than Milledge. Significantly more.

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WTF? What does Jay Bruce's production at AAA have to do with Lasings Milledge? You said Milledge hasn't produced at AAA, which is a false statement.

As far as Jay Bruce goes, he's clearly a top flight prospect, perhaps #1 or #2 going into next year now that Upton and Jones (supposedly) are up, but from a fantasy baseball in 2008 perspective, Lastings Milledge is light years ahead.

[bugstud]

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you want longoria over milledge, and I honestly think it's not close?

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Milledge is better in the short term. Even though he hasn't really produced at the major league level, those 230 or so PA that Milledge has gives him a big advantage over the players who haven't made it yet. From a tools/prospect status, he's just as good as Bruce/Longoria. I think people forget that Milledge is only 22 and only six months older than Longoria.

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I really disagree with this, milledge is blocked @mlb and has a comparable/better of prospect competing with him in the minors.

[Vyse]

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Bruce has raped Triple-A more than Milledge. Significantly more.

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WTF? What does Jay Bruce's production at AAA have to do with Lasings Milledge? You said Milledge hasn't produced at AAA, which is a false statement.

As far as Jay Bruce goes, he's clearly a top flight prospect, perhaps #1 or #2 going into next year now that Upton and Jones (supposedly) are up, but from a fantasy baseball in 2008 perspective, Lastings Milledge is light years ahead.

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I had already mentioned Bruce > Milledge earlier. Figured you'd make the connection.

Bruce may or may not be directly > than Milledge for 08 -- I'd take him -- but the league is also a keeper, and Bruce rapes Milledge over and over in a keeper. Milledge is blocked and plays in a poor park. Bruce is blocked but he's better, the guys blocking him are likely to be traded (or hurt), and he's in a great park.

[rwperu34]

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I really disagree with this, milledge is blocked @mlb and has a comparable/better of prospect competing with him in the minors

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Milledge is in the big leagues racking up experience right now. This is huge for young players and gives him a big edge over Longoria for 2008.

Green's contract expires at the end of this season and it's no certianty that Alou will be back. Miledge is definitely not blocked, although I wouldn't put it past the Mets to find a way to make him a fourth outfielder again.

I'm not sure if you're refering to Gomez or Martinez as the comparable prospect. Gomez isn't in the same class. While Martinez is a great prospect, let's not forget he's only 18 and hasn't even mastered Double-A yet. By the time he's ready Alou will barely be a memory to the Mets and there's no way he takes PT away from Milledge in 2008.

[Vyse]

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Gomez isn't in the same class.

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But Minaya wants to have his babies and obviously isn't exactly enamored with Milledge.

[rwperu34]

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Bruce may or may not be directly > than Milledge for 08 -- I'd take him -- but the league is also a keeper, and Bruce rapes Milledge over and over in a keeper. Milledge is blocked and plays in a poor park. Bruce is blocked but he's better, the guys blocking him are likely to be traded (or hurt), and he's in a great park.

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The problem is, Bruce vs Milledge is debatable, and favors Milledge heavily from 2008-2010. Milledge has better tools and better plate discipline which means he's more likely to be good quicker. He's also got the better lineup surrounding him, which is very important from a fantasy perspective.

I've heard enough of this Milledge is blocked hooey. He's blocked for 2007, yet he'll still find a way to get 200 MLB PA despite missing two month to injury. He's not blocked whatsoever for 2008 and beyond. Bruce is more blocked than Milledge. All three of the Reds starting outfield is signed for 2008. If they can get a deal done, fine, but until that happens, Bruce is a risk to not be a starter.

I want to reiterate, from a tools and projection standpoint, Bruce and Milledge are fairly close. Milledge has better tools, but Bruce has hit with more power so far. That's the only reason it's close. For all the hype Bruce is getting, don't forget, Milledge recieved just as much when he was a prospect. Milledge was "hurt" by getting called up so early last year and losing his prospect status. If he hadn't been called up, he would have rated #3(Delmon, Gordon) coming into this season. If for some bizarre reason he was still eligible going into 2008, he'd be right there for #1 with Bruce and Longoria.

[Vyse]

You really overrate Milledge. He's declined as a prospect in the last year, not improved. I'll go so far as to claim Bruce is twice the prospect Milledge is going forward as far as fantasy is concerned, and maybe real life too. Bruce has major league power. Milledge has yet to prove he does. Milledge has done nothing with his PA and has injured himself in the process. If Bruce finishes out Triple-A like he's currently doing, he'll have jumped two levels in a year and raped them all, and he's 20. He's just a year and a half removed from HS. His future >>>>>>> Milledge.

Kevin Goldstein nuts over him too:

"Just 20 years old, he's already moved up to Double-A, where he’s hitting .328/.406/.672 in his first 15 Southern League games. The best hitting prospect in the minors? You could make that argument and win."

And he ranked him ninth to begin the season.

And if you love Milledge's tools so much, you should love Gomez, too, whose tools are just as good. Milledge's 2006 was nice, but Bruce is already topping it.

And the fact that the Mets OBVIOUSLY don't appreciate Milledge as much as they would a comparable top prospect means a lot in determing his future short-term value. That's seen simply due to the fact that Gomez was widely reported as an untouchable in every sense of the word while Minaya may not be actively shopping Milledge, but certainly is open to offers.

I'm also not even sure why exactly you think Milledge's tools apparently dominate Bruce. Bruce is a year and a half out of high school and looks close to MLB ready, and scouts say he's above-average in all five tools. His career minor league K/BB is only a tad bit worse than Milledge and it's gotten better as the year has gone on.

While Milledge has an inherent advantage over Bruce re: opportunity to play due to the Mets' older players, it's really not something I'd be worried about. The Reds obviously like Bruce judging by the fact that they've been extremely aggressive in promoting him -- come on, he stayed at Double-A for 16 games. You really think they won't shop Dunn in the offseason? Hell, I wouldn't be surprised to see them cast Hatteberg to the side, skip Joey Votto, move Dunn to 1B, and play Bruce. If Bruce proves he is ready to play, room will be made.

Meanwhile it's rather evident the Mets are somewhat skeptical on Milledge full-time; Shawn Green has been horrendous outside of April. And if Milledge keeps performing poorly on the major league level, do you really think a win-now team is going to commit to him? They sure didn't this season, and Milledge hasn't shown any growth in the past year.

EDIT: It's also difficult to overstate the park effects. Off my head I'm quite sure Shea is murder for right-handed hitters.

[rwperu34]

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You really overrate Milledge. He's declined as a prospect in the last year, not improved.

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This statement pretty much makes everything you say afterwards invalid. Don't worry, it's a common mistake made by fantasy players all over the world. They think because a player struggles a little in his major league debut, that he's not a top prospect anymore. They think just because he's not eligbile for the list, his future value isn't as good as the guys on the list. The chance of Milledge having major league sucess is better than it was at this point in 2006. He's still got the same great tools, he's still got the minor league track record, and he's still young. All that's happened is a slump at the big league level, an injury, and he recorded a rap album. He's healthy again, and BTW, his MLB line is .284/.325/.473 right now. As of August 3, 2007, Milledge is a much better fantasy prospect than Jay Bruce. It's really not even close. Heck, for 2008, Jeremy Hermida is a better prospect than Jay Bruce!!!

One thing you have ducked nicely is the service time issue. This has an effect on Longoria also. There is a very good chance that Bruce is in AAA until June to hold off his arb/free agency clock, even if he is ready.

For you fantasy baseballers out there that don't know, Milledge, Hermida, and Kemp are going to be three guys you can grab late/cheap that could be big contributors from the start in 2008. Another guy that will go cheap but is a big time prospect is Alex Gordon. Wherever he went in your draft this year, he should go at least that high next year, although he won't. Gordon should definitely go ahead of Longoria even if Longoria makes the team out of spring training. My guess is due to hype, Longoria will go higher.

[Vyse]

You assume way, way, way too much. Not even worth bothering.

[DesertCat]

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Jay Bruce's Stats
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Year Age PA HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
2006 19 A 497 16 40 106 .291 .349 .516 865
2007 20 A+ 300 11 24 67 .325 .379 .586 965
2007 20 AA 74 4 8 20 .333 .405 .652 1057
2007 20 AAA 84 5 8 16 .307 .381 .600 981
</pre><hr />



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That's a pretty awesome progression. I know the AA/AAA line combined is only 160 PAs, but it looks as if he's getting more dominant the higher he goes.