200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
I like this post.

I have a question. If we held AA here, does that change much or are we going to assume that Aba is not overbetting a hand for value that isn't a minimum of trip 9s?




[/ QUOTE ]

actually i think a 9 is one of the least likely hands for villian.
i would say that AA is a very likely holding for the villian as well as bottom set.
but i have a hard time putting him on a 9.

[whitelime]

There were maybe 6-7 good posts in this entire thread and the rest were garbage. Whoever suggested something about him having trip 9's what are you smoking? The 9o is quite possibly the absolute best card for my hand.

I think what this hand is really about is psychology. My hand is fairly faceup though I have a tendency to get tricky but sbrugby probably hasn't seen this yet. So it's just a matter of whether he's trying to push me off a K or making it seem that way in the hopes that I call.

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
There were maybe 6-7 good posts in this entire thread and the rest were garbage. Whoever suggested something about him having trip 9's what are you smoking? The 9o is quite possibly the absolute best card for my hand.

I think what this hand is really about is psychology. My hand is fairly faceup though I have a tendency to get tricky but sbrugby probably hasn't seen this yet. So it's just a matter of whether he's trying to push me off a K or making it seem that way in the hopes that I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

results?

[YouMyBoy]

[ QUOTE ]
There were maybe 6-7 good posts in this entire thread and the rest were garbage. Whoever suggested something about him having trip 9's what are you smoking? The 9o is quite possibly the absolute best card for my hand.

I think what this hand is really about is psychology. My hand is fairly faceup though I have a tendency to get tricky but sbrugby probably hasn't seen this yet. So it's just a matter of whether he's trying to push me off a K or making it seem that way in the hopes that I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't understand how he couldn't be betting trip 9's or a boat that just got there with the river 9.
Can anyone explain why he thinks this is such a great card?

[whitelime]

stinger, philledingue, jman, and rbk made good posts and i pretty much agree with their thought processes. Bld, I dont understand why just b/c my hand is facup that he has me beat to make that bet? Sure there's the whole concept of omg if youre inducing a bluff you can't fold, but this isn't sklansky hold'em

[JMa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There were maybe 6-7 good posts in this entire thread and the rest were garbage. Whoever suggested something about him having trip 9's what are you smoking? The 9o is quite possibly the absolute best card for my hand.

I think what this hand is really about is psychology. My hand is fairly faceup though I have a tendency to get tricky but sbrugby probably hasn't seen this yet. So it's just a matter of whether he's trying to push me off a K or making it seem that way in the hopes that I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't understand how he couldn't be betting trip 9's or a boat that just got there with the river 9.
Can anyone explain why he thinks this is such a great card?

[/ QUOTE ]

sbrugby most likely wont c/r a lone 9 on the turn

[BLdSWtTRs]

This is such an extremely easy fold it ain't even close.

I doubt that more than 5% of his overbets on the river are with losing hands, especially against an unknown. He probably takes a line similar to this with the c/r on turn and river overbet once every 3000 hands.


If you had trip 9s then it would be a tough decision because he may have you outkicked. But if you had a nine it would be far less likely he had a nine so it would probably be barely a call. But for this hand he probably has a set, slowplayed aa, ak, trips 9s, bluff(5%) in that order.

[greg nice]

if youre gonna fold id fold to the c/r turn

twp saying that the line is fine until the river call is faulty imo

check turn is still best play after checking flop vs a solid winner

[aba20]

FullTiltPoker Game #2270050786: Table Dawn (deep 6) - $150/$300 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:35:10 ET - 2007/04/23
Seat 2: The Gift of Gab ($110,044.50)
Seat 6: sbrugby ($78,845)
The Gift of Gab posts the small blind of $150
sbrugby posts the big blind of $300
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sbrugby [5s Ks]
The Gift of Gab raises to $900
sbrugby calls $600
*** FLOP *** [8d Qd 7s]
sbrugby checks
The Gift of Gab checks
*** TURN *** [8d Qd 7s] [2c]
sbrugby checks
The Gift of Gab bets $1,800
sbrugby raises to $7,200
The Gift of Gab calls $5,400
*** RIVER *** [8d Qd 7s 2c] [4c]
sbrugby bets $32,000
The Gift of Gab has 15 seconds left to act
The Gift of Gab calls $32,000
*** SHOW DOWN ***
sbrugby shows [5s Ks] (King Queen high)
The Gift of Gab shows [8c Td] (a pair of Eights)
The Gift of Gab wins the pot ($80,199.50) with a pair of Eights
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $80,200 | Rake $0.50
Board: [8d Qd 7s 2c 4c]
Seat 2: The Gift of Gab (small blind) showed [8c Td] and won ($80,199.50) with a pair of Eights
Seat 6: sbrugby (big blind) showed [5s Ks] and lost with King Queen high

FullTiltPoker Game #2102465355: Table Canfield (6 max) - $200/$400 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:51:30 ET - 2007/03/30
Seat 3: sbrugby ($72,596)
Seat 4: Urindanger ($45,399)
Seat 5: KOMIJENDO ($82,794.50)
KOMIJENDO posts the small blind of $200
sbrugby posts the big blind of $400
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sbrugby [Js Qh]
Urindanger raises to $1,400
KOMIJENDO folds
sbrugby calls $1,000
*** FLOP *** [Ts Ah 2d]
sbrugby checks
Urindanger checks
*** TURN *** [Ts Ah 2d] [7s]
sbrugby checks
Urindanger bets $2,800
sbrugby raises to $9,200
Urindanger calls $6,400
*** RIVER *** [Ts Ah 2d 7s] [6h]
sbrugby bets $20,800
Urindanger calls $20,800
*** SHOW DOWN ***
sbrugby shows [Js Qh] (Ace Queen high)
Urindanger shows [4s Ad] (a pair of Aces)
Urindanger wins the pot ($62,999) with a pair of Aces
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $63,000 | Rake $1
Board: [Ts Ah 2d 7s 6h]
Seat 3: sbrugby (big blind) showed [Js Qh] and lost with Ace Queen high
Seat 4: Urindanger (button) showed [4s Ad] and won ($62,999) with a pair of Aces
Seat 5: KOMIJENDO (small blind) folded before the Flop


I think its a good call. I agree there is a ton of really bad advise in this thread. I personally think Stinger's is the best advice.

[Jman28]

Bld,

This is the first time, that I can remember, that I've ever really disagreed with a post of yours.

[ QUOTE ]

I doubt that more than 5% of his overbets on the river are with losing hands, especially against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll give you that against unknowns he likely doesn't bluff like this often, but whitelime isn't an unknown. I think he's bluffing here close to 25%.

If he expects whitelime to call a PSB, which I think he does, he probably won't bluff for pot. That means when he has air, he'll either check or make bets like this often.

[ QUOTE ]
But for this hand he probably has a set, slowplayed aa, ak, trips 9s, bluff(5%) in that order.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this hand is most likely a set/two pair turn boat, then bluff (25%ish), then AA/AK/trip 9s all with <3% each.

Obviously from those #s, I still think it's a fold, but I think it's not as clear as you seem to think.