Jman article in Bluff

[Jman28]

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love the article, and I suggest next one be about changes you make in your game when playing with a constant 3 bettor who is tag, and one who is lag postflop for like 150bb and for 300bb

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Next months article done already, but I like this idea. Thanks.

[Jman28]

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Jman, I think what would also be good for each edition of the magazine, is for you to go through your thought process for a 200/400+ NLHE hand against a tough opponent... as long as it doesn't reveal too much personal info.

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I'm a little worried about giving any strong reads I have vs any HS regular because I don't want them to know what I think of them. I'll think about it.

[microbet]

Nit, but regarding the Sklanskys.

$10k AA vs. JJ, I think you win $6k in Sklanskys, not $8k.

[Jman28]

Yeah, MDMA pointed out, you probably can call the turn if you know that villain will shove his entire range on any river. I should've made the situation more realistic.

Edit: Gone for the night, but keep comments rolling in. Thanks for any comments/critiques.

Show it to people. I'm very proud of this article, and I'm hoping it will help get my name out there a bit, and get some other players/writers' attention. It's already gotten me a bunch of new facebook friend requests!

[krupa-]

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It's already gotten me a bunch of new facebook friend requests!

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And that's all that really matters. Especially if they aren't dudes.

[mlagoo]

this is a really great article jman, thanks for writing this.


do you ever (jman, or other hsnl regs) get concerned when stuff like this is put into sort of accessible language?

[LearnedfromTV]

Great article.

The biggest issue I have when I try to do this sort of math is range weighting; the first example has a little of this ("half your QQ's").

But generally these calculations are so much simpler if you assume the range being considered contains whatever hands it contains in direct proportion to the number of preflop combinations of each hand, even though that isn't accurate in a lot of situations. In other words, there's a lot of hands in any range where the action is stuff like 75% bet flop/25% check flop or 60% bet/20% c-r/20% c-c, or 75% raise preflop/25% fold. And this cascades through multiple streets. Raise 97s 75% of the time, bet flop with flush draw 75% of the time, bet brick turn 50% of the time, bluff river 40% of the time. With different weightings for every hand in the range!

It seems like doing this right would

a) get terribly complicated.
b) potentially give you really wrong answers if you get those frequencies wrong when you calculate. You could know "set, two pair, tptk or flush draw" and still be way off on your g-bucks calculation if you assign the weightings based on preflop combinations instead of the Bayesian tree that represents the whole action sequence.

Agree that this is the best article I've read in a long time. JMan and VanVeen should get together and write a book.

[LearnedfromTV]

It seems that if you take it to range vs range *and* account for all the 75/25, 65/35 weightings over each street, which is the game as it's actually being played, the math becomes intractable.

Still, range vs. one hand, even with the range difficult to weight correctly, is a significant improvement over Sklansky $.

[TStoneMBD]

i had trouble conveying the first error that i pointed out. i understand the fundamental principle of folding the best hand on the turn because of difficult river decisions, but because of the way you defined the scenario in your article, the turn call is right. your read of hero is that whenever he shoves the river, your equity is 70%. if you take all non-flush completing rivers and you alter his range appropriately, assuming that he still shoves all missed draws, AJ's equity is still huge. If the flush hits then your equity vs his hand range is now horrible and you have an easy fold.

I guess MDMA conveyed it better as you understood his point that "Yeah, MDMA pointed out, you probably can call the turn if you know that villain will shove his entire range on any river. I should've made the situation more realistic." which is really all I was trying to say.

As for the second error, Im surprised that you dont recognize that shoving AK here is correct. Fundamentally, its easy to see why shoving with AK is better than shoving with 87, even though it intuitively seems wrong.

[bdams19]

if you keep coming out with articles like this theres gonna be no fish left