NL600 550bb stacks - multidrawer rivers 2nd nutstraight, he overpushes

[Proofrock]

This hand seems like an example of a pretty basic, important principle: a big bet (especially a 3x pot open push) on the end by a straightforward player heavily weighs his range towards the nuts (or near nuts).

I mean, I think most agree that
(1) pushing the river is a bad play with any 6, especially 76.
(2) Villain's line pretty much represents nothing but a bluff (he can't expect to get value out of this push with anything in Hero's likely hand range).

If Villain is capable of running a big multi-street bluff like this, he's likely pretty good or REALLY bad, but not much in between. You know Villain isn't an idiot, and nobody has suggested that he's great.

Some have been saying this would be a sick bluff to run -- this could be profitable with any two since Hero so rarely can call. On the other hand, this line looks really fishy, so if Villain is good enough to run a bluff like this, he should be good enough to at least represent *something* with his line.

Which brings us back to the start. The bluff, though profitable, doesn't scan because any competent player who would be making the bluff should realize he represents nothing. Villain is a competent, not brilliant, player who has not been known to make big moves. The push doesn't make sense with any hand, so Villain probably didn't think it through when he pushed -- it's so much more likely to be an overexcited "omg i rivered the nuts in a huge pot push push push push push."

As much as it sucks, just like I stated in my last post, I think a fold is in order without evidence that Villain is capable of running a bluff like this. Since so few people are capable of it in this spot, I vomit and fold, but after a few days thank Villain for not check-raising the river.

[JaBlue]

I don't like how villain played this, especially flop/turn because its not really a line he would take with a made hand here - would definitely expect him to c/r or lead out.

For all the guys saying he can't have 76 the way he played it up until the river, why not? Check/call, lead is a way a lot of guys might play it, especially against a frequent c-better.

I think the vast majority of the time on the river he has a 6 and I think he shows up with an ace almost never. And this particular villain is not bluffing like this IMO, I would definitely fold - the bet is just too big. I think this bet becomes a tough decision at around 1500-1600; before that it looks like an obvious call and after that it looks like an obvious fold. For 2700 into 1100, getting less than 1.5:1 I think its a pretty obvious fold.

[BobboFitos]

this is actually a pretty interesting hand

id consider raising the turn... normally with a sick draw id hate that because you could be 3bet off your draw, but here KK is very much within your hand range... even a set is awfully scared. plus, his stop and go is easily a middling hand which just wont put anymore in. actually, im not sure if this is a good idea. just a thought.. you guys arep retty damn deep.

on the river, wow. you have hearts, so its not like he's bluffing that. the 3 got there, so 66 or so is driving you off half the pot. clearly he cant think you can call with an ace here, right? the fact you're deep overshadows everything though, as some people clam up and really will have the nuts always here. would be a weird way for him to play 67, calling the rr oop, just check calling the flop and then leading the turn... he didnt even lead the turn cheap.

im 50/50 on calling the river, sad thing is its hard to put him on a bluff at all.

[BobboFitos]

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Instacall. How often can he really put you on a 6 here? Ever? No. This looks more like an A trying to push off a split than anything else.

Next time, if you don't want to influence responses, don't post a leading question like "this is an instafold, right?"

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We reraised preflop. No way he's putting us on a 6. He's obviously pushing any 6 and is probably pushing aces for value as well.

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no one is pushing an ace for value, dov. a 6 is pushing so that an ace coudl call. an ace is a bluff catcher. if villain has an ace he's prolly blocking to get paid by a set or 2 pair which cant fold or check calling.

[BobboFitos]

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Maybe point to a post in the thread that says that 67 is impossible? Reading FTW.

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sorry, i think it's more likely than a lot of people think. Also, I don't think some regs are capable of [censored] around this deep without the nuts, so that alone could be the difference between call fold. I don't know enough about redargoe though.

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this is a big truth that people arent really concerned about.. some people (alot of regs) are comfortable with 100bb decisions, and ~200. but this is 550... different ballgame

[morphball]

Wow this hand is sick, but I am not sure that I agree his river shove was bad. He semi-bluffed his gut shot, which was actually a nice play on that K, but still, he only makes his hand 1 out of 11 times if you call. Even with FE, he still needs to get a lot of money in the pot if he hits his draw and huge part of your range is checking behind with a 4 card str8 on the board.

[BobboFitos]

ok, saw results. cooler but im still 50/50 on river. heh.

the real q is whether villain would've bluffed a blank or not. if he steals the pot when hero misses his turn play is great. if not, his turn play is real bad.

[TheWorstPlayer]

what are you talking about? how is an ace a bluff catcher? which is more likely: that we get paid off by top set on a push or that he re-raised a hand with a 6 in it? he's usually pretty nitty preflop, I believe, fwiw. and i would expect him to be even moreso with these stacks (that's obviously wrong, but that's neither here nor there).

[aislephive]

Folding hinges on the entire belief that this player is never bluffing, and a ton of people who have commented in this thread including myself have never played with him.

If he is thinking a few levels ahead then he should know that we'll never call a shove without a 6, and given the action it's extremely unlikely for us to have a 6. So for him a river shove is super +EV no?

I mean, I'm just rambling now. I just don't see how he could never be bluffing here.

[BobboFitos]

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what are you talking about? how is an ace a bluff catcher? which is more likely: that we get paid off by top set on a push or that he re-raised a hand with a 6 in it? he's usually pretty nitty preflop, I believe, fwiw. and i would expect him to be even moreso with these stacks (that's obviously wrong, but that's neither here nor there).

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ive only played him hu, but he wasnt that nitty.

an ace is a bluff catcher because on a 2 3 4 5 K board there is limited value in a bet... yes, a set may call, or a weird 2pair (or if he is very CSesque like a weird JJ may, but 77-QQ is not there if you look how it was played!)