Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250

[Jigsaws]

Yes, Clayton FTW!

(I still have my suspicions about those donk-n-goes, though... you sure you weren't worried about being forced into the blinds next hand?)

[pdoran10]

gj clayton! I feel reasonably compotent for being on the right track with all of the questions.

[Hoover]

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You are actually the closest I've read so far.

Point 4 is wrong, though. It's a money winner. "Due to AA"--villain would have to have that a very high % compared to all other hands he'd push with for this to be -EV. We know from the call that this isn't the case. Just b/c AA crushes us doesn't make the call overall -EV.

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Yeah, well it's so close to neutral, I flipped a coin. I'm broke (bbv post) & my other answers just rock, pick me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[Weir]

was it "the holiday?"

b/c omg totally worth it if so

[Beanos]

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Net: $1.19 profit per hand, so that means for my $43 mistake, I get $44.19 back by calling.

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It is EV of your call preflop which i believe you are calculating. Would it not be correct that you are getting a return of 58.64 (57.45 + 1.19) on your call of 57.45? It sounds like your saying, the $43 dollars returns $44.19. I might have misread it though?

[munkey]

if clayton ftw, poll for the charity?

[MATT111]

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4. Does my preflop CALL play lose or win money in the long run (not given what he actually had)?

It definitely wins money in the long run, albeit very tiny money.

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This is incorrect without stating assumptions made.

[novel20]

If I raise to $85 preflop and insta-call after I got reraised all in, am I having an even bigger +EV situation?

[Megenoita]

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4. Does my preflop CALL play lose or win money in the long run (not given what he actually had)?

It definitely wins money in the long run, albeit very tiny money.

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This is incorrect without stating assumptions made.

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The question is if the call makes money in the long run given the scenario (NL 100 FTP, approx. reg table, my image, player tendencies, etc.), specifically given the range that the given villain probably has when he pushes. The answer is yes, b/c I'm correct to call if he has any hand other than AA, and it's extremely unlikely that he has specifically AA.

The answer is "yes" for virtually any scenario except if villain is going to have AA only too high of a %. Considering he gets AA 220:1, and this misclick was probably a 1/25,000 mistake, the odds of his having AA when he'll also call with KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQs, probably AQo and TT, possibly more hands...extremely unlikely.

[Megenoita]

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Net: $1.19 profit per hand, so that means for my $43 mistake, I get $44.19 back by calling.

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It is EV of your call preflop which i believe you are calculating. Would it not be correct that you are getting a return of 58.64 (57.45 + 1.19) on your call of 57.45? It sounds like your saying, the $43 dollars returns $44.19. I might have misread it though?

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You are right about the EV, but what I was doing was simply making the point that my mistake of $43 doesn't lose $43, as it would if I just folded. The "move" (misclick) happened to retrieve $1 and change back from my mistake.